CFL week 10

forgot to mention on this on the earlier thread....the second part results are if the game is a non-divisional contest.....

Teams that won as home favorites via shut out and then are on the road as away dogs have been 16-30 ATS,.........7-20-1 ATS (-4.3) and 4-24 straight up (-8.96) for non-divisional games......VERSUS Bills

p:HFW and AD and po:points=0 and division!=o:division

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Watching the CFL game tonight....Ottawa has decided to join the league 10 weeks into the season.  Their new quarterback you can build a team around.  The guy that got cut in Pittsburgh Duck Whatever who they are bringing in....I don't think you need him, as Evans, the new guy who could have a long career and he looks like a good leader.

I can consider taking the Redblacks now,...congrats on those that saw this earlier than I did.

Three special teams touchdowns and two pick-6 touchdowns and the game STILL went over by only a touchdown?

Offenses just aren't happening in the CFL this season.  The one pik-6 wasn't the qb's fault.  Looking like  Ottawa is on the right track.

Still interested in taking Toronto getting points versus Hamilton, though it would be better if Arbuckle were quarterbacking.

I'll officially enter into the picks business for baseball....Dodgers were not an official play, will that be wire transfer or credit card?

Game 1s.

1)  White Sox +115

2)  Rays -1' +130

3)  Braves +130

6 Staff writer's picks CFL.....

1)  100% on Argos....winner for the staff

2)  100% on Bombers over Elks

3)  5 out of 6 on Riders over Stamps

4)  5 out of 6 on Alouettes over Redblacks

5)  6 out of 6 on Hamilton over Argos

Calculated lines for CFL, I am giving one point for the home field, as home field advantage is at best, very small, and at worst there is no advantage whatsoever for home field in the CFL.

I will take the last six games and lop off the highest scoring and lowest scoring games and the same defensively to get four games of points scored and allowed and then average that.

Team      Avg pts           pts allowed

Calgary      22                    20             total 41.75

Sask        19.75                 21.5          Sask +2.75

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Elks         20.75                 29             total 49.5

Bombers  27.25                 14             Bombers -22.5

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Ottawa   16.25                 32              total 55.5

Montreal 22.5                  27.75          Alouettes -11.5

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Toronto   24                    24              total 44.25                    

Hamilton 23.5                 15.75         Ti'Cats -8.75

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We look to fade our calculated lines which would put us on three dogs......the Elks, Argos and Redblacks.

Totals we would lean with UNDER Elks, UNDER Alouettes

CFL

Plays:

1)  Elks +9'

2)  Bombers/Elks UNDER 48'

The favorites have had their little fun....time for things to be back to normal in the CFL, UNDERs and dogs rule.

Down goes Indigo....

1)  White Sox + loser

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2)  Braves +130

3)  Rays -1'

Adding:

4)  Giants +107

1)  White Sox +130 loser

2)  Rays -1' +130 winner

3)  Giants +107

4)  Braves +130

I am going to list my college plays for the weekend.  Be advised that this year my college picks have been right at 50%, so I stopped posting as of two weeks ago.....previous to that they hit between 55-58% on side plays in the past 3-4 years.

Alright?

All times are Eastern Time Zone  

1)  12:00 pm   South Carolina +10'

2)  3:00  pm   Virginia +2'

3)  3:30 pm    Boise State    +6

4)  4:00 pm    Oregon State -4

5)  7:00 pm    Buffalo +6

6)  7:00 pm    UTSA +3'

CFL

Adding:

3)  Redblacks +7'

4)  Redblacks/Alouettes UNDER 48'

5)  Argos +4'

6)  Argos/TCs UNDER 43'

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1)  Elks +9'

2)  Elks/Bombers UNDER 48'

best wishes this week Indigo 

especially in the contest!  

Ja, thanks,....be nice to get a 5-0.

Adding on in the baseball playoffs, 1-1 +0.30 so far

3)  Rays -138

4)  Rays UNDER 7.5

HF and p:HW and playoffs=1 and total=7.5 and p:HW

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1)  Giants +107

2)  Braves +130

Time to add the Elks to the unbackable category with Ottawa.  Brutal game by them.

At least the under came in

3)  Redblacks +7'

4)  Redblacks/Alouettes UNDER 48'

5)  Argos +4'

6)  Argos/TCs UNDER 43'

1)  Elks +9'................................loser, perhaps it'll be time to move on from Trevor Harris

2)  Elks/Bombers UNDER 48'........winner

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MLB

1)  Braves +130 loser

2)  Rays -138 loser

3)  Rays UNDER loser

4)  Giants +107

1-3, -3.11 for the day 2-4 -2.81 for playoffs, I won't give up my day job.

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Saturday

5)  Brewers -1', +167

6)  Giants -1', +185

Home teams in the first round in game two have been 17-4 straight up, +32.7% ROI if they were off a home win where the game went UNDER

series game=2 and H and p:ou margin<0 and p:HW and playoffs=1 and game number<166

Final NFL card, with KOC betting percentages on the right as of Friday night.

7)  Eagles +4...........Eagles 37%

6)  Jaguars +4.........Jaguars 26%

5)  Dolphins +10......Dolphins 38%

4)  Lions +7'............Lions 52%

3)  49ers +5'...........49ers 39%.....betting percentages actually went up with the announcement that Jimmy G was ruled out

2)  Giants +7..........Giants 38%

1)  Bengals +3........Bengals 34%

In the CFL, the staff writers have had an astounding weekend so far as they've started out 2-0.......they've picked the home favorites for every game this week, including the next three.

NCAA Football with eastern time and covers' percentage of bets.

Plays:

adding...

7)  Utah +3, 8:00 pm,............................30%

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1)  12:00 pm   South Carolina +10'..........36%

2)  3:00  pm   Virginia +2'......................36%

3)  3:30 pm    Boise State    +6...............29%

4)  4:00 pm    Oregon State -4................74%*

5)  7:00 pm    Buffalo +6........................65%*

6)  7:00 pm    UTSA +3'..........................50%

We'll see if playing these high consensus plays, Buffalo and Oregon State, will burn me.

The answer was "yes", the big consensus picks DID come back to bite me, woulda been nice to be able to use that prophetic ability elsewhere.

7)  8:00 pm     Utah +3,.........................30%............................winner

1)  12:00 pm   South Carolina +10'..........36%...........................loser

2)  3:00  pm   Virginia +2'......................36%...........................winner

3)  3:30 pm    Boise State    +6...............29%..........................winner

4)  4:00 pm    Oregon State -4................74%*.........................loser

5)  7:00 pm    Buffalo +6........................65%*........................loser

6)  7:00 pm    UTSA +3'..........................50%.........................winner

To the great relief of many, I am retiring from posting major league baseball picks, a very short experiment that resulted in me accidentally blowing up the lab and some of my bankroll.

The CFL staff writers have gone 2-1 in their picks so far, with two more to go this week....they were 1-3 last week if I remember correctly.

As you may have recognized by now, I am very much interested in  fading mediocre handicappers, because it can be profitable and it's so damn easy....I found another handicapping site where they have 8 handicappers that pick against the spread in the New York Times....as a group they are 10 games below the Mendoza line so far this season and -35 units collectively (243-253 ATS).  I'll list any games where 6 or more were on one side and we wish to PLAY AGAINST (or at least consider going against) THE CONSENSUS opinion.

FADE THE......

1)  Jets............ 7 out of 8, 87.5%

2)  Vikings....... 75%

3)  Saints.........87.5%

4)  Patriots.......87.5%

5)  Bucs...........75%

6)  Packers.......75%

7)  Steelers......75%....surprised at this one....this and the Jets are the only underdogs listed

8)  Panthers.....75%

9)  Titans........87.5%

10) Cardinals...87.5%

11) Ravens.....87.5%

It is been my experience that the best games to use this method are the Sunday day games where fading will hit about 55-58%......the night games on Monday, Sunday and Thursday are about a 50-50 proposition which would keep us from fading the Ravens this week.

Funny I blow up the Lab on Sat football , sometimes you just need to step back for a few days or a day.

1)  Bengals +3 tie....the game where kickers couldn't kick straight.  Why do coaches just assume that their kickers can make a 50 yard field goal in a pressure situation?  Get the first down and try to score six.

2)  Dolphins +10 loser....Dolphins in trouble

3)  Lions +7'......somehow the Lions almost won this game.

4)  Eagles +4.....winner

5)  Jaguars +4....loser

6)  Giants +7

7)  49ers +5'

NFL 1-3-1, 18-12-2 for the season, in the contest I am 15-9-1.

College football 4-3 for the week 13-12 for the season.

CFL 1-1 so far, with four bets pending on Monday, 28-15 for the season.

49ers are gonna cover a lot of games the rest of the season with Lance quarterbacking.

CFL

Montreal rallies behind their backup quarterback in the last 2 minutes to get the win, though the RBs get the cover and UNDER cashes.

3)  Redblacks +7'.................................winner

4)  Redblacks/Alouettes UNDER 48'........winner

5)  Argos +4'

6)  Argos/TCs UNDER 43'

1)  Elks +9'....................................loser

2)  Elks/Bombers UNDER 48'............winner

CFL staff writer's picks now 3-1 for the week and would be 2-2 against the spread,....they just pick straight up, not against the spread.

They have the Tiger Cats in the finale.

That kick looked wide!!

We'll take it, but the refs better look at getting a new eye subscription.

5-12 at half.....these teams should score in the second half.

agree 2nd H over 21.5

oh yes the kick call was 

Wide receiver runs down the field and never looks for the ball when he should have scored a tochdown.  Wide receivers have the biggest cake job in football.....you run routes, look for the ball and catch the ball.....THAT'S IT!!

He never looked for the football and the ball falls at his feet.

That guy never plays another down for me.