CFL week 15 Indigo lines

And, down the stretch we go.

Toronto's lack of a big-time quarterback is gonna hurt them in the playoffs....they've got the coach, but they hopefully get into the quarterback market this off-season.  Their defense has slipped lately, which with the addition of Chris Jones is a surprise,...perhaps too many cooks spoil the broth.

Montreal/Winnipeg was an excellent game.  Winnipeg actually had to work to win a game.

Still, I think back to a few years ago when Calgary was dominating the league and they got beat in a couple of Grey Cups by vastly inferior Ottawa and Toronto teams.....so dominating regular seasons doesn't mean you skate through the playoffs.

I'm picking the Alouettes to get through the East.

1)  Toronto -1 Hamilton 44

Hamilton has been chasing the Argos the whole season...Hamilton plays the most boring football in the history of the CFL...I find ways of doing other things when their game is on.

2)  BC +3 Calgary 47

Evidently the Lions have just been too young this season...it'd be nice if they could find a kicker that would get me the money when I've picked them to cover.

3)  Montreal +4 Winnipeg 46

Perhaps the Bombers will sleep walk through their last two games.  Regression is well and truly happening now in the CFL as dormats Redblacks and Elks covered this weekend, so maybe the Bombers lose a game to give themselves a reason to think they aren't invincible.

4)  Saskatchewan -7 Edmonton 44

I still hate everything about the Elks, but give them credit, they beat me this weekend.  If their management and fans think that their coaching staff and their quarterback can win in the CFL next year, they are deluding themselves. 

Riders cannot score.....play Fajardo to run in all crucial situations and you have beaten them.

NFL

Play:

1)  Brownies +2'

Parameters of a play....

  a)  Games in 2021

  b)  An away dog whose previous game total was greater than 45.....25-14 ATS.... Eagles, Vikings, Browns

  c)  If our away dog's  previous game's total was also greater than their present opponent's previous game total .......19-6 ATS

season=2021 and AD and p:total>45 and p:total>op:total

Vikings, Browns

NFL

All winless away dogs after game number four on a Sunday are 85-54 ATS.

If they are off a bye, this moves to 11-2 ATS......ON Lions

t:wins=0 and AD and day=Sunday and game number>4 and rest>10

CFL.....

Lions signed a new kicker.....hooray!....maybe this one can kick straight.

Early leans based on early lines, though on my odds page they have the Elks, not the Sasqatches as hosts for this week's game.

1)  Als +

2)  UNDER Argos

3)  Inspired by their new kicker who makes all of his extra points, the Lions cover the spread versus the Stampeders.

A week 10 away dog with the better average yards per pass margin....30-19 ATS....Browns, Seahawks

A  November away dog that has the stronger next week line....308-220 ATS, 76-47 ATS in week 10.....Browns, Jaguars, Panthers

A November home dog that has the stronger next week line.....55-37 ATS, 14-6 ATS in week 10.....Raiders, 49ers

I am using massey ratings to calculate the future line...I'll update later this week when the bookies put out their actual lookahead line.

An away favorite in week 10 that has lost their last two road games....12-18 ATS....VERSUS Bills

An away dog in week 10 that has lost their last two road games......75-60 ATS.....Lions (and technically the Jags have lost their last two also, but they did win in their overseas game, which was considered a home game).

A week 10 home favorite with the better yards per pass attempt defense....71-92 ATS....VERSUS Broncos, Packers, Chargers, Steelers, Titans, Colts

A week 10 home favorite with the better yards per pass attempt margin....33-47 ATS....VERSUS Colts, Cowboys, Titans, Steelers, Chargers, Cardinals, Broncos

A week 10 favorite with the better scoring margin that will either be a dog their next game or their present opponent will be a favorite....87-126 ATS, (-2.7), 40.8%.....VERSUS Colts, Patriots, Cowboys, Cardinals, Rams 

A week 10 non-divisional dog off a win whose previous game line was more than 7 points stronger than their this week line.....28-8-1 ATS.

Example......Seahawks were 4 point favorites last game at home in their win versus the Jags and now are 3.5 point away dogs.

ON Seahawks, Dolphins 

A week 10 non-divisional favorite off a loss whose line is at least 7 points weaker than it was last week.....10-20 ATS

VERSUS Packers

Adding:

2)  Seahawks +4

1)  Browns +2'

A week 10 non-divisional home favorite that won at least 2 out of their past three games

Games won out of three:

2.......25-37 ATS......VERSUS Packers, Cowboys, Broncos

3.......13-21 ATS......Steelers, Titans, Patriots, Cardinals

A week 10 non-divisional away dog that has won either 0 or 1 of their past three games

Won:

0 games out of their last three.....14-10 ATS......Lions

1 game out of their last three......36-27 ATS......Eagles, Seahawks, Panthers, Vikings

Adding:

3)  Panthers +10

______________________

2)  Seahawks +4

1)  Browns +2'

A week 10 away non-divisional dog with the lesser per game scoring margin than their present opponent that had the less strong line their previous game than their present opponent.

AD and month=11 and day=Sunday and p:line>op:line and division!=o:division and week=10 and tA(margin)<oA(margin)

36-20 ATS

ON Browns, Falcons, Lions, Vikings, Panthers

This was 19-6 ATS  if the difference between last week's lines was between 0 to 7 points......Browns

In November away dogs that outrush attempt their opponents cover 82% of the time.

If they out-gain their opponents on the ground they cover approximately 75% of the time.

The Chargers have the worst rush defense in the league, I am putting money on the idea that they will be out-rushed and out-rush attempted in their game versus the Vikings.

Adding:

4)  Vikings +120

_____________________________________________

3)  Panthers +10

2)  Seahawks +4

1)  Browns +2'

Adding:

5)  Detroit Lions +9....yeah, they are terrible, but so was/are the Jaguars who beat the highest rated team in the comp last week.  Of course if you lose with a terrible team, you will feel terrible as a result, probably more so than taking a team that has performed well previously.  Just keep in mind that 96% of bettors will lose, so winning is difficult...what would most bettors not be willing to do?....that is taking terrible teams even in auspicious situations.

_______________________

4)  Seahawks +4

3)  Vikings +120

2)  Browns +2'

1)  Panthers +10

Great stuff!  Good luck, especially with CLV.

Thanks.....luck is certainly a part of it all.

NFL plays 36-24 ATS, superbook contest plays 27-19-1 ATS....need to win at least 58 out of 90 plays to have a chance in the contest, which means I'll have to hit around 31 out my next 45 picks.

CFL 39-26 ATS.

Due to the vast influence of Indigo, the line has moved in the Lions game from +9 to +8.5 shortly after I released my pick....

Sam Darnold likely out for several weeks, which instead of sending the line upward, has actually tilted it downward towards the Panthers which shows what the market thinks of him......his time as a starting NFL quarterback are over and he'll be out of the league within two years.

I might take the Raiders if the line moves to +3 in their game versus the Chiefs.

Plays:

1)  Detroit Lions +9

2)  Seahawks +4

3)  Vikings +120

4)  Browns +2'

5)  Panthers +10

NFL

A November Sunday home favorite of greater than 7 points who will be an underdog their next game.....42-72 ATS, (-3.8), 35.7%, 10-18 ATS in week 10.

month=11 and line<-7 and HF and n:line>0 and day=Sunday

As:

Divisional home favorites.....14-35 ATS.........VERSUS Colts

Non-divisional home favorites....28-37 ATS....VERSUS Cowboys, Steelers, (possibly Cardinals as right now their lookahead line is +1)

If our home favorites' next week line is weaker than their present opponent's next week line, this moves to 18-35 ATS

The Jaguars' next week line is +5' and the Colts' line is +6'

The Panthers' next week line is -2 and the Cardinals' is +1

On Panthers, Jaguars

Revisiting the divisional home dogs......the Raiders and 49ers.

Home divisional dogs that will be a favorite their next game have been 136-100 ATS....if they will be away favorites this moves to 58-39 ATS.....49ers

A divisional home dog that will be a home dog their next game have only been 70-85 ATS.....Raiders.

A divisional home dog that will have the stronger line than the present opponent will next week has been 95-49 ATS....the 49ers will be five point favorites at Jacksonville their next game while the Rams will be a slight away dog in two weeks at the Packers.

HD and n:line<on:line and division=o:division and n:playoffs=0

A divisional home dog whose next week line will be weaker than their present opponent's next week line has been 378-439 ATS......Raiders

HD and n:line>on:line and division=o:division and n:playoffs=0

Plays:

1)  Detroit Lions +9

2)  Seahawks +4

3)  Vikings +120

4)  Browns +2'

5)  Panthers +10

Adding:

6)  Jaguars +10'

Dr. Bob, the illustrious narcissist handicapper who like the NBA player that never thinks he once has fouled his opponent, thinks that he was cheated in every losing pick he's ever made, did write a useful article once on "must-win" games.

He stated in his research that teams in the last couple of games of an NFL season that have to win to clinch a playoff birth or a better seeding cover at about a 31% rate.  There's such a thing as trying too hard in sports and often this takes place against a long ago eliminated team.

This week we have Saskatchewan trying to clinch a top two position in the West playing the lowly Elks.  The Elks could give them a game.

It also wouldn't surprise me if the Bombers lost one of their next two games.

Strong lean to the Alouettes.

CFL Plays:

1)  Hamilton/Toronto UNDER 45

Just need Bethel-Thompson to not throw TDs to the Tiger Cats and this game will go the way it should, which is it will be a defensive slugfest. 

What is it about Nick Arbuckle that causes teams to dump him, despite his awesome arm talent that a team like Toronto could really use?

2)  BC Lions +2'

BC's last stand 

3)  Montreal +8'

We'll find out if the Alouettes are ready for prime-time.

4)  Edmonton +10'

Despite my misgivings on Edmonton, they are an indicated play.  Hint to Eskimos/Elks....don't let Fajardo beat you with his legs.

Can they?....will they?

NFL contest picks.....27-17-1 ATS.

1)  Lions +8'

2)  Browns +1'

3)  Vikings +3

4)  Seahawks +3'

5)  Panthers +10

I am personally playing the Vikings on the moneyline and also taking the Jaguars +10'....also considering the WFT, but will wait until Sunday.

A Sunday November away dog of greater than 7 points off a game where they were a home dog has been 86-57 ATS (+2), 60.1%.......ON Lions, Jaguars, Panthers

If our away dog scored less than 14 points in their previous game as a home dog this moves to 37-18 ATS.................ON Lions, Jags, Panthers

AD and p:HD and month=11 and day=Sunday and line>7 and p:points<14

Sometimes a season trend is only that....a one-hit wonder.

This season as I mentioned earlier in the NFL, teams with a total their previous game of greater than 45 have been 30-15 ATS their next game as away dogs.

Teams that fit that profile this week are:  Jaguars (total was 48 last game), Vikings (51), Browns (47.5)

If their last week total was greater than their this week's opponent's last week total this moves to 22-6 ATS for the 2021 season.  Example....Jags' total was 48.5 and the Colts' total was 45 their previous games....Jags, Vikes, Browns.

In 2021 teams that had a total of 45 or greater their previous game and now are home favorites have been 27-32 ATS, and if that last game total was less than their present opponent's  last game total....this moves to 3-14 ATS.....VERSUS Chargers, Colts.

CFL

Adding:

5)  Toronto pik

_______________________

1)  Toronto UNDER 45

2)  BC +2'

3)  Montreal +8'

4)  Elks +10'

CFL Staff writer's predictions

1)  Hamilton 100%

2)  Calgary 67%

3)  Montreal 67%

4)  Saskatchewan 100%

Covers' consensus

1)  Toronto 62%

2)  Calgary 72%

3)  Montreal 59%

4)  Saskatchewan 58%