CFL week 2

Season to date.....4-2

Indigo lines....

Redbacks +2     Riders 52

Alouettes  -2     Bombers 49

Eskimos -7'       Tiger Cats 55

Argos +3          Stamps 54

These are what I'd make them at.....obviously the linemaker will have a different opinion, as we saw an 8 disparity in the Sasquatch game and a 4 point difference in what I had in the Eskimo game.....so don't come here and tell me that my lines are off....they will be different than the bookies' and they'll be dfferent from yours as well,  I'll pretty guarantee that.....I haven't received any calls from Vegas asking me to do their lines for them.  Notably I went 2-0 on the games where I felt the lines were off by more than a field goal.

Observations.....Riders looked the best of all the teams.  Saskatchewan's defense, along with Calgary and Hamilton's, was top notch.  It was hard to tell if BC and Montreal's defenses were very good or the offenses were very poor....talk about not risking anything,....total game of Checkdown Chalie after the first quarter in BC/Montreal game.

Montreal will win some games, but Drew Willy will be not be the answer as he is afraid of getting hit in the pocket and coughs it up.  If you're scheming against BC, just play the run and play Jennings to scramble, that is their whole offense.  Both of those teams should play a ton of unders this year.

Edmonton and Saskatchewan should be the two top West teams and I'll wait to watch the Redblacks before I pass judgement on the East.....don't think Toronto or Montreal can go over 500.....Hamilton looked very much better on defense this year than last as I thought they would be, but as a team it remains to be seen how the Tiger Catst can play in the last 3 minutes.....they stunk it up today towards the end and performing in the last three minutes is about 50% of the game in the CFL.  Can you make plays and stop the other team from making plays in the last 3 minutes?.....can you take a shot when the situation demands it?  The refereeing is different, the players are tired and more afraid of making mistakes, and some coaches get that and others won't.   

Looks like Montreal's team won't and probably BC's team won't and probably until Winnepeg gets their qb back, they won't either.

As far as quarterbacks go, Zach looked good, Streveler looked ok, Willy was about a 3/10 after the first quarter, when he was about 9/10 in the first quarter.....it looked like Montreal was trying to win the game 10-9 and froze after the first quarter.....can't do that on the road in the CFL  

The true test of a quarterback is how they perform on the road and two of the teams with questionable quarterbacks go on the road next week, in Winnipeg and Saskatchwan.  Willy gets go to home and gets to play against a bad Bomber defense....if he doesn't do it against them, he never will.

Almost certainly will be on Hamilton if they are >7 point away dogs

Almost certainly will be on Montreal if they come an underdog, which according to most power ratings  I am seeing. they will be.  Montreal will be better this year and they had a chance to win in BC.  They will outrush most of their opponents and when a non-divisional home dog outrushes their opponent they are 51-13 ATS.  Rushing and defense in pro football are most important from a covering standpoint at home, and quarterbacking will get you the cover on the road.  (Just look at Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees' road ATS records in the NFL.)  We have a combination of a rookie quarterback on the road in his very first pro road game and a very good rushing attack and a good defense at home.  Winnipeg will look at the tape of BC's win of Jennings running and BC running the ball and they will try to emulate BC's formula,....well, Montreal has the same tape, and  the idea that one will win running the ball is less likely to work on the road.....if coaches would have the idea of needing to score on the road via the pass and playing defense at home they'd be much more successful.

Non-divisional home dogs when having a worse record than their present opponent from last year have been 12-4 ATS, 9-6-1 straight up in the first three weeks.

Pure Gold 

Lines are out......

1)  Redblacks  -3  51    Sasquatches

2)  Alouettes    +2 46'   Bombers

3)   Eskimos     -6'  55   Tiger Cats

4)  Argonauts   +3' 52'   Stampeders

They all look good for what I want to do.

We'll discuss more later in the week.  Best of fortune this week.

1)  Alouettes +2

Teams off an away loss now a home non-divisional dog in week 2 have been 4-0 (19.38) ATS and 4-0 straight up (15.38)....considering all games, not just non-divisional games they're 5-0 straight up, winning their games by over 13 points/game.  From a fundamental point of view, we're asking a rookie quarterback on a team with a bad defense to win on the road.  Will gulp hard and hope that Willy won't lose the game for the Als.

For you guys that are good at line shopping, you may wait....as I've mentioned earlier, predicting line movement is not my thing.  

This will be my favorite play of the week....not that means anything, my two favorite plays last week went 0-2 and the others went 4-0.

2)  Sasquatches +3

Teams in week 2 with equal losses to their opponent have been 10-2 as away divisional dogs.  Market is still under pricing the Green Riders....I'd put their odds of winning the division at +250.  We'll see if Zach is the real deal this year, as he'll be called on making some plays on the road.

In the other games, it looks like there is some downward pressure on the Tiger Cats, and the line opened lower than I expected to,....perhaps I wasn't the only one that was impressed with them last week, or perhaps there is an injury I am not aware of.

Linemaker is wanting to attract money onto the Argos with his early line of 3.5.....I may bite on Toronto, as Calgary will not be as dominant this year as in recent past.

Correction,  Teams in week 2 with equal losses to their opponent have been 10-2 as away non divisional dogs.....Sasqatches

Teams off week 1 away loss have have been 8-1 (+13.77) ATS and 7-2 straight up (+8.78) as dogs week 2......

Tiger Cats, Argonauts, Alouettes

Sasquatches fall into an angle that is 35-13-3 ATS (+5.38) and 24-27 SU (1.20) and also 30-19-2 OVER (+3.68)

Next play:

3)  Sas/Ott OVER 51

4)  Tiger Cats +7

We'll see if they can finish the game this time...my database has teams off an away loss, playing as an away dog as being 29-16 ATS, including 12-4 ATS if they'll be a favourite next week.....I'm taking the points.

Indigo , I think Mon has to win this wk for Ham to be a fav next wk if Winnie win's' this wk I think they will be a fav next wk even with there qb. Tor's looking at a bye next wk and I don't think they want to go into a bye wk 0-2 but I not to sure they can beat Cal , What have you got for teams going into a bye wk?

Home teams that will have a bye next week are 35-47 ATS, (-0.93) and 35-44-3 UNDER.

If they are playing as a non-divisional  home dog this moves to 4-7 ATS (-2.95) and 4-7 UNDER (-3.18)l

If our home dogs that will be having a bye next week  are also off an away loss it moves to 2-6 ATS (-4.56) and 2-6 UNDER (-4.00) and 0-8 straight up (-9.50)

HD and n:rest>11 and not DIV and p:AL

Teams that lost last week as home dogs and now are away non-divisional favorites have been 1-6 ATS (-6.71) and 2-5 straight up (-4.00)   

versus Winnipeg

Teams that lost last week as away dogs and:

a)  are home dogs

b)  playing a team that lost at home

c)  non-divisional game 

have been 8-1 ATS (+9.17) and 5-4 straight up (+4.78) and 2-7 UNDER (-8.11)

Lines have moved.....I have not been a good predictor of line movement in my betting career.  Typically I bet dogs and typically the betting money moves towards favorites, so waiting is usually the better option.....I've never been good at waiting,.....it is what it is called a "leak" in my betting game.  

Rough estimate, 50% of time lines will move off of their opening numbers that are readily available to the public in the CFL.  The line will move towards a favorite 60% of the time in most sports when the line actually moves.

Getting an opening number seems to make the most difference in the WNBA and college football.

Anyway, money has moved Saskatchewan from 3 to 1.5, Montreal from +2 to +3 and Hamilton from 7 to 6.5.

Surprises?  I'm surprised Hamilton has moved down as my feeling was that the Eskimos would be public darlings this year, as they play a fun type of game and score lots of points.  Hamilton gathering interest tells me that others saw what I saw last week....that this team is much improved, especially their defense and they will compete for a championship this year.

Though I am on the wrong side of the Montreal move, that make my opinion on them stronger, especially when the money moves towards the favorite....I like going against favorite money in the CFL, whereas in NCAA football going against early money will make you a loser.  Watching Montreal, I saw a team that will be good defensively, that will run the ball and try not to turn it over.....that is a recipe for success at home, but it's doubtful they'll win on the road with that strategy.  Going into freeze mode with a 10-9 lead was boneheaded thinking, but it shows us the M.O. of their team this year, and also that the team doesn't have much faith in Drew Willy not to turn it over, which he did anyway at a crucial time with the game on the line last week.

Saskatchewan/Ottawa will be a tough game in my opinion as Ottawa typically score a boatload of points in the beginning of the season and Saskatchewan is not built to compete in a shootout type of game.  Of the three sides I've played, this is the one where my gut has misgivings, but the data behind the pick is solid.  

The betting public went 3-1 in the CFL last week, they were on Winnipeg, Saskatchewan, Hamilton and BC.....and let's just say, that that trend won't last and that having a covers' consensus on a couple of underdogs is   not common.

This week, things are more right in my betting world as there is heavy consensus on three of the four favorites, rather than on two underdogs like last week, and even the smallest public opinion, Calgary at 55% is considered a pretty substantial opinion.  

To those new at CFL betting, covers' consensus is a good overall barometer of where the public is at, because covers has no rationale to falsify betting public numbers of their contest and generally the opinions of the public rarely change from the beginning of the week until the end of the week, unless there is some kind of new injury news to a major player in the game.

And, now it should be obvious that a general public opinion, even a strong one, doesn't predict where the line is gonna go as we have moves going against the public in the Hamilton and Sasquatch games as some heavy/smart money is on those two dogs.

In the CFL going against the public can be a stand alone strategy, if you wish to hit about 55% on your picks for the year.

When the public hits their picks for a week or maybe two in a row,.....look out!...the tsunami is coming where the public will get killed in CFL.  It is kind of like being in the middle of cascade of tornados or a hurricane....things can be really quiet and then all of a sudden all hell breaks loose.  It is something to be aware of....I promise you, the public won't win consistently in the CFL.

Well we both picked Sas at+3IIm  , , my line came out with Edm at -7 , but had Win at -6 at no adjustment for qb now wish I had taken them at -2 and still may at -3 but then if it goes back to -2.5 or -2 I start thinking t he smart money went on Mon and may go with them , Still like Cal but would like -3 , as for Ham -Edm , Win put up 30 pts on Edm so is Winni's qb that good or Edm Def poor , but then you can say the same about Win's Def , Ham-Edm gm I lean to the OV can't get myself to pick a side yet. I just don't think Tor is going to start the season off to a good start. Pick Sas at +3 leaning to winni and cal and ov on ham-edm.

Edmonton at home and 2 days extra rest. Cats qb Masoli? Proline has Esks -7.5. Might still take the Cats, will wait till Friday.

Sask ml +130

Als ml +140. Cats 0-2 10 out of last 14 seasons. Odds of them winning are not good but I will bite Cats +7. GO CATS GO