Grey Cup Indigo line

Hamilton +5  44.......

Early lean to the Tiger Cats.

NFL early picks....

1)  49ers +1

2)  Falcons +3

NCAA Bowl games.....

1)  Utah State +7'....got a crush on the Aggies, which in betting sometimes will get you burned....we'll see.

2)  East Carolina +3....I've seen nothing out of Boston College to make me like them.

3)  UTSA -2'..............how long UTSA retains their coach is the question....if I am an athletic director at a big school and my football team hasn't done anything, I'd throw a few million dollars in his direction.

4)  Tennessee +115

5)  Western Michigan +6'....Nevada, like Purdue and Mississippi State will not run the ball and........... I have discussed at length the advantages of rushing attempts.

Adding:

6)  Army -7', -105.....Army is the much superior team,...........sure it's a rivalry game, but I don't see Navy getting more than 7 points on that Army defense

Indigo superbook contest picks went 3-1 ATS with New England on Monday Night Football pending......36-27-1 ATS for the season.

26 picks left to go....I will have to hit 21 or more to cash. 

deleted

Adding:

3)  Ravens +105

__________________________

2)  49ers +1

1)  Falcons+3, -120

College bowl dogs in December of less than 10 points that outrush attempt their opponent in their bowl game have been 87-45 ATS, 65.9%

Bottom 20 average rush attempts per game teams in a bowl game this season.....

           Team                 Rank        Rush attempts

Mississippi State            130              20.8

Western Kentucky          129             24.7

Nevada                         128             25.5

Virginia                         125             28.1

Purdue                          123             29.9

NC State                       116             31

Iowa State                    113             32.3

Texas Tech                    112             32.6

Hawaii                          110             33.2

.

CFLca has run a computer simulation on the Grey Cup final.....with the Bombers winning 62.3% of the time.

What does that equate to in a pointspread?

Because there is now no CFL database to research with, I entered in various lines in the NFL's online database to see what line most accurately mimicked a 62% chance of winning the game.

The answer for a home underdog is.................. (drumroll)........+3.5.

In a sample size of around 240 games, a home dog that is a 3.5 point underdog won straight up 37% of the time, the closest number to the  simulator's number.

And the public has bet the game down io, you guessed it, +3.5......truth is stranger than fiction. 

Ok, boys (and girls), here's a couple of angles in the NFL........

This one I've mentioned before.

1). An away dog that had a game total of greater than  45 their previous game,  (this season only) has been 40-22 ATS.....if we exclude Monday night games this has been 40-19 ATS......Raiders, Jaguars, Falcons, Lions

2)  An away divisional dog after October (excluding game 16) that lost at home their previous game that are playing a team that won their previous game at home.....40-20 ATS, 33-15 ATS in Sunday games, 19-8 ATS if the line is greater than 7......Raiders

NFL Plays:

1)  Falcons +3, -120

2)  49ers +1

_______________

Adding:

3)  Raiders +9

Deleting.....Ravens +1

Plays:

1)  Falcons +3, -120

2)  49ers +1

3)  Raiders +9

Here is another angle that has worked thus far in the NFL this season.....prior to this season it didn't work.....this year away dogs have been historically very good, so perhaps many angles will support away dogs this season.

Why has this worked?.....I don't know.

I am using gimmethedog's website as my research reference.

Play on an NFL away dog whose game total line their previous game was greater than their present opponent's previous game total line.

30-12 ATS......Lions, Jaguars, Falcons, Raiders, Rams

AD and p:total>op:total and season=2021

Yet, when we reverse this and state that our away dog's game total line from their previous game was less than their present opponent's, those away dogs have only been 27-31 ATS.

Another angle in the NFL....

Play on an away dog after October in Sunday games whose opponent is off a bye and the away dog is not..

64-46 ATS.....28-19 ATS if this is a divisional game......ON Bears, Jaguars, Falcons, Ravens

AD and o:rest>11 and rest<8 and month>10 and day=Sunday

If our away dog is a losing team this moves to 37-23 ATS, and 16-10 ATS if it is a divisional game.....Bears, Falcons, Jaguars

AD and o:rest>11 and month>10 and day=Sunday and tA(W)<.5 and division=o:division

If our away dog is a losing team  off a home loss this has been 19-7-1 ATS.....Bears, Falcons

AD and o:rest>11 and month>10 and day=Sunday and rest<8 and p:HL and tA(W)<.5

I have an indicated play on the OVER in the Grey Cup....I am not sure if I will play it.  If one of the Canadians here has the weather forecast closer to game time, that would be much appreciated.  Cold and snow etc., favors the offense and as we saw on MNF, wind favaors the defense.

Adding:

4)  Bears +12'

5)  Steelers +3,....if the Vikings lose this game I predict this will be the end of the road for Cousins, Zimmer or both in their present positions after this season.

________________________________

3)  Raiders +9'

2)  49ers +1, -115

1)  Falcons +3, -120

I  respect your opinion PB.....I was hoping for a Bomber blowout as well. If I were going to play the game's line, I would be one of those handicappers that would play a line.  I'd take the Tiger-cats if on Saturday or Sunday they were +3.5 or greater.  I'm not very good at predicting line movements, so we'll see.So we'll see what the public and the bookies do with the line.

I have decided to delete my Steelers play as 62% of the public is on them in the KOC contest and in general non-divisional away dogs that are winning teams are a poor bet.

I'll be playing some very ugly dogs this week....there's 3 more that I am taking.

Take an away dog whose next week line is stronger than their opponent's next week line....this is 32-10 ATS this season.....Jaguars, Panthers, 49ers.

And, the same holds true for home dogs....if their line is stronger in their next week game than their this week opponent's next week line this has been a 66% angle the last 30 years....it performs better in December and the worse the team, the better it does......Texans, Jets

Example....the Jets next week line is +7 while their opponent, the Saints have a lookahead line of +11.5.  I am using vegasinsider's global odds as a reference.

Plays:

1)  49ers +1, -115

2)  Falcons +3, -120

3)  Bears +12'

4)  Raiders +9'

5)  Jets +5

6)  Jaguars +8'

7)  Texans +7'

Been riding against the Peggers for a while and I am not jumping ship.  The Peggers elevated and covered so many times and there is no indication that their demise will reverse against the current trend.  Did you know that in the 2019 post season the Peggers were dogs in every playoff game?

Yes Spot, I remember, your unique insight is always interesting to me.

Seems both you and Polar are a lot stronger on your take than mine....I am still on the fence and I may just play the total or leave the game totally alone.

The statistically dominating team in the regular season often loses in the finale in both the CFL and the NFL.....recent examples....Tiger-cats in 2019 and the Stamps losing to the Redblacks and the Argos 

This season there isn't THAT team in the NFL unless the Patriots go unbeaten the rest of the way......and if they happened to make the Sbowl and play the Bucs I would play the Patriots.  Interesting that a few of the  dominant quarterbacks of the last few years....Jackson, Mahomes (and Allen from last year) are all having average statistical seasons, while meanwhile Brady and Rodgers keep marching on.

Contest picks are now 37-27-1 on the season with five weeks to go.

Plays:

1)  49ers +1, -115........contest play at -1'

2)  Falcons +3, -120.....contest play at +2'

4)  Raiders +9'...........contest play at +9'

5)  Jets +5.................contest play at +6

6)  Jaguars +8'..........contest play at +8'

7)  Texans +7'

___________________

3)  Deleted Bears +12'.....even though the Bears are in a VERY positive situation, I can't ignore the Packers' and Aaron Rodgers' stellar home divisional record against the spread.

All of these ugly dog teams,.........the Bears, Jags, Texans and Jets are enough to give one nightmares and we'll look very foolish if they lose

Sometimes betting is nothing more than taking teams no one else wants to take....remember only 4% of bettors make money long-term.

This is a "big gulp" kind of card, I realize that.

Good fortune.

Agree it’s getting more difficult to find strong dogs in the NFL.  

Also bowl games are much different.  Used to be the dogs ruled.  That’s not the case anymore.  

My research has shown that bowl dogs do best between Christmas and NYD......if they performed poorly in the last 3 games or so before their bowl, the increases their chances of covering same as in the NFL playoffs.  Rare is it that team on late game streak coninues on in the playoffs....better if they were hot early and cooled off towards the playoffs.

We saw Winnipeg that was unbeaten at home the whole season almost get beat at home, which is a common circumstance for teams that were excellent at home during the regular season.    I thought the fact that the Bombers lost their previous two games would mitigate that phenomenom.....and it obviously didn't.  The Bombers tried every which-way to give that game away.

The issue for the Bombers is that away favorites are terrible in playoffs and that Hamilton is playing with playoff Grey Cup favorite revenge, which heavily tilts the pendulum towards the Tiger-cats. 

And Harris is hurt...that's big.

@Polar_Bear

 youre 100 %.  Part of the  demise I was referring to is the meaningless games they have been involved with.   Winnipeg clearly looked bad at times last week and had it not been for Sasks ineptness,  Winnipeg would have and should  have be taken down.  Sounds as if Dane Evans will QB this week.

Stud RB is still a huge question according to CFL.ca.

Hamilton was not the 15-3 team from 2019 but they also battled a ton of injuries.  We'll see if they can play up to 2019 levels. 

I am in no way saying I have the winner.  Its a great game, and it should be fun to watch.  I like the trend against Winnipeg to continue.  If they play up to par I lose.  

Weather could play a part I guess but in Canada the way the schedule rolls late in to the year there shouldnt be any excuses.

Best wishes all.

I am currently in 5th in the King of covers CFL contest and I need luck to reach 1st-3rd place to get a payout.  How do I hedge the free hat if I fail to climb? 

Number 5 eh?....let the chips fall where they may.

In a study of world class performances by athletes, they all reported being in the zone and not putting forth a maximum effort, and they all wondered afterwards if they had tried a little harder if they would have performed even better.

The answer is, no, they wouldn't have.....they let it happen, instead of trying to make it happen, which is the base of all martial arts performance.

Bruce Lee said, "Be Water, My Friend.".....as a certain Pisces person I know could relate to.

Good job Spottie , the way I see it if you hit you beat #1 and #2 shouldn't play (to be in the money) #3 needs to play the same as you and #4 made 1 play different from yours, looks like it's if #4 wants to play an o/u. Otherwise I think you're in if you hit. Thats my quick math.