Indigo week 4

Argos showed they are favorite to win the East...they should win the East by at least two games.  Arbuckle one of the three top qbs in the league (Riley, Fajardo) and their defense is championship caliber.

Winnipeg was poor even last season on the road, and they will continue to be so.  They were 5-6 the previous season and 5-6 the previous season before that on the road.  Their quarterback can't win them any games and their ATS record won't be nearly as lofty as it was the past 2-3 seasons.

Ottawa?...their coach is a poor offensive mind and they can't grind out wins like he did with the Bombers....they have no playmakers and Matt Nichols is scared out of his mind on the football field.  I seriously think the bookmakers have to consider making their totals in the 30s.

Saskatchewan has the look of those Stampeder teams that would dominate in the regular season, which didn't always translate into postseason success.

BC and Edmonton both have the look of up and down teams that one can back as dogs, especially on the road and but you'd fade them as favorites.

Hamilton in a must-win this week at the Alouettes.  Alouettes to me will be homers this year...I don't trust Vernon on the road.  The Tiger Cats' offensive line has been abysmal this season so far and I don't think that will change.

Lines

Toronto -5       Edmonton 50

Montreal -3      Hamilton 47

Ottawa +2'      British Columbia 40

Winnipeg -7     Calgary 52

Calgary falls into a 112-62 ATS angle versus the Peggers, though it has been less successful on weekend games, hitting around 59%.

Teams that are winless as away dogs in game numbers 2, 3 and 4 have been 27-14 ATS, 5-1 ATS as away divisional dogs in game numbers 3 or 4....Tiger Cats

However, teams as away dogs in divisional games off a bye before week 5 have been 0-3 SUATS LOSING BY AN AVERAGE OF 23 POINTS/GAME!.....Tiger Cats

Home divisional favorites of 6 or more that will be away dogs their next game have been 8-15 ATS before week 10, losing to the spread by an average of -4.41 points/game.....Bombers will be away dogs to the Roughriders next game......VERSUS Blue Bombers

Teams with the lesser or equal winning percentage in weeks 2-6 on the road in non-divisional games have been 27-18 ATS, and 16-31 o/u.....Lions, Elks

A cautionary tale....week 4 is often chaotic and trends will reverse often this week.  For you SDQLers the query below is an example of it.....if a trend has been zagging quite a bit, it may be a time to zig.

7 > week > 1 and tA(line) < oA(line) and AD and t:wins - o:wins = -1 and week

Winnipeg was poor even last season on the road, and they will continue to be so.  They were 5-6 the previous season and 5-6 the previous season before that on the road.  Their quarterback can't win them any games and their ATS record won't be nearly as lofty as it was the past 2-3 seasons.

Ottawa?...their coach is a poor offensive mind and they can't grind out wins like he did with the Bombers....they have no playmakers and Matt Nichols is scared out of his mind on the football field.  I seriously think the bookmakers have to consider making their totals in the 30s.

Seriously have to consider BC next week 

Calgary falls into a 112-62 ATS angle versus the Peggers, though it has been less successful on weekend games, hitting around 59%.

Awesome!

Away teams with equal wins to their present opponent have been 26-14 ATS on the road in weeks 3 or 4,....Lions

Away dogs with lesser wins in weeks 3, 4 have been 16-12 ATS, and 8-21 o/u...Stamps, Elks

Early leans.....Bombers, Argos, Als, Lions....

UNDER Redblacks

Parameters:

a)  playing third road game of the season

b)  won one of the first two  road games

c)  game number 3,4 or 5

d)  weeks 4, 5 or 6

7>week>3 and tS(W@A, N=2)=1 and AF and game number=3, 4, 5

1-10 ATS (-10.59), 1-10 straight up (-6.27).....VERSUS Lions

Teams playing in game number 3 after starting the season with two road games....5-2 ATS....Redblacks

game number=3 and p:A and pp:A and H

Another one.....this query is supporting a team that has already had their bye versus a team that hasn't had their bye, just not having their bye the past week, in weeks 4 and 5....Ottawa and Montreal

t:game number<o:game number and rest<9 and 6>week>3

15-6 ATS and 8-13 o/u

Home favorites in this situation have only been 2-2 ATS so we eliminate those games, which leaves us with only Ottawa unless somehow Montreal is a home dog rather than home favorite this week versus Hamilton.

Away dogs before week 10 that had the better regular season record last year....55-27 ATS.....Stamps, Elks, Tiger Cats (if away dogs).

If those away dogs have less or equal wins THIS YEAR, this moves to 47-22 ATS (+5.16) and 27-43 o/u (-0.72)

In divisional games this has been 21-8 ATS.....Tiger Cats, Stampeders

In non-divisional games this has been 26-14 ATS.....Elks 

week<10 and PRSW>o:PRSW and AD and t:wins<=o:wins

An away divisional dog in week 4 that started out the season with 3 straight home games.....6-0 ATS (+8.92), 3-3 straight up.

Average line/total +3.6/51.6

Average score  27.7-22.3

Stampeders

p:H and pp:H and ppp:W and week = 4 and AD and DIV

Week 4 road divisional teams have been 21-8 ATS

Away divisional dogs have been 15-5 ATS (+5.2) and 10-10 straight up (0.15)

Away divisional favorites have been 6-3 ATS (+5.83) and 6-3 straight up (+10.0)

Week 4 road non-divisional teams have been 8-13-2 ATS

Away non-divisional dogs have been 6-7-2 ATS (-2.80) and 3-12 straight up (-9.73)

Away non-divisional favorites have been 2-6 ATS (-6.06) and 3-5 straight up (-2.25) 

I mentioned this in a slightly different version earlier.....a divisional away dog having played less games than their present opponent off a bye has been a terrible performer.

1-4 ATS (-7.20) and 0-5 straight up losing by an average of 16 points per game.

Was warming to the idea of taking  Hamilton.

Note to self......"Do not take the Tiger Cats!" 

t:game number<o:game number and AD and rest>11 and DIV

We go against a home favorite loser now as an away non-divisional favorite

2-11 ATS....(-9.27), 5-8 straight up (-5.46)

p:HFL and AF and not DIV

VERSUS Lions

Week 4 teams with one win on the season, at home...

Divisional game.....3-12 ATS (-7.43) and 5-10 o/u (-4.23)........Montreal

Non-divisional game....6-0-2 ATS (+12.60) ..........Redblacks

t:wins=1 and DIV and week=4

t:wins=1 and not DIV and week=4

A divisional away team in week four with 1 win on the season.

10-5 ATS.....(+6.70), 4-11 o/u (-6.07).....Stampeders

A non-divisional away team in week four with one win on the season

2-5 ATS (-9.36), 3-4 o/u (0.07).......Elks

Pre-lines are out...expect them to change by Friday when the big sportsbooks have their odds out.

Indigo lines in brackets

Alouettes -    1'  45'         (-3,   47)

Redblacks    +1' 41'         (+2', 40)

Bombers      -5' 40'         (-7,   52)

In the history of my database going back 10+ years the two top away dog covering teams are; 1)  Stampeders 27-15 ATS, 64%, and 2)  Tiger Cats 48-29 ATS, 62%

The Stamps have covered at a 67% rate in divisional away dog games (18-9 ATS), and the Tiger Cats are even better at 20-9 ATS.

The Redblacks have been 10-6 ATS as home non-divisional dogs and the Lions have been 13-17 ATS as away non-divisional favorites.

Away divisional dogs in weeks 3-9 with an average over/under margin of more than -7 points per game, with a total of less 50.......Tiger Cats

7-2 ATS (+11.22)

6-3 O/U (1.22)

AD and DIV and tA(ou margin)<-7 and 10>week>2 and total<=50

Home non-divisional dogs with a total of less than 50 after week 2 and an over/under average margin of at least  -7 points/game.....Redblacks

2-3 ATS (-2.50)

5-0 O/U (+13.20)

HD and not DIV and tA(ou margin)<-7 and week>2 and total<=50

Delta points scored?...."what is that?"

That is the expected points scored by a team according to the line on the game.

We'll use the Tiger Cats as an example.

Game                 line             implied score     actual score          dps

1                   Cats -1' 49'        Cats 25'-24         6-19                 -19' 

2                  Cats +1 49'        Cats 24-25          8-30                 -16   

The Tiger Cats average delta points scored (dps) is -17.75 points per game.  How do those teams perform their next game when we use an arbitrary level, say -7 dps per game or worse?

In away divisional games, these teams have been 10-11 ATS and  17-4 O/U (+3.60).....Tiger Cats OVER

A and DIV and tA(dps)<-6

Teams scoring less than 7 points less than expected their previous game, off a loss, now on the road in a divisional game have been 29-13 ATS, and 19-22 O/U before week 10.....Tiger Cats....

however those teams in this situation off at least 8 days of rest have only been 1-3 ATS.

A and DIV and p:dps<-7 and week<10 and p:L

Teams with a negative -7 points per game or worse average against the spread margin on the road in a divisional game off a loss before week 10.......Tiger Cats

16-11 ATS, 20-8 O/U

though only 2-3 ATS off a bye....and 5-0 O/U off a bye.

A and DIV and tA(ats margin)<-7 and week<10 and p:L and rest

Looks like Elks/Argos ppd by COVID (on The Score app)

A dog that has had at least a -7 points per game ATS average margin disadvantage to their present  opponent  and also has less  wins than their opponent has been 34-17 ATS before week 6.

Example.....Bombers' average per game ATS margin is +3/game for the season so far.

Stampeders' average per game ATS margin = -4.33/game

AD, HD and tA(ats margin)-oA(ats margin)<-7 and week<6 and t:wins<o:wins

Stampeders, Tiger Cats

Record season-to-date 11-5

Plays:

1)  Alouttes/Tiger Cats OVER 46

Both teams' offenses are due to bust out.  When both teams score more than 20 points in a CFL game and the total is less than 50 the OVER has covered 92.5% of the time.

Masoli would be feeling the heat....if he doesn't produce this game, his gig as a CFL quarterback may be finished.

Montreal 31 Hamilton 28.

2). Ottawa +2

Let's just say that the Ottawa offense has not produced their first two games.  I will keep pounding the point...quarterbacks will cover for you on the road and defense and a running game will win at home.   Ottawa defense is top notch enough to carry this team at home and LaPolice will come up with enough to get the W.  Dominic Davis maybe?....last time we saw him he was flaming himself out as the Redblacks' starting quarterback by throwing numerous interceptions and since has been relegated to a very long bench on the Redblack sideline.  If Ottawa doesn't win this game, it is likely they will win less than four games on the season.

Redblacks 24 Lions 16.

The Tiger Cats are or will become away favorites versus the Alouettes.  The line is not based on any reality of the performance of those two teams this year, but is a clear enticement of bettors to bet the Alouettes....in other words, the bookies are taking the side of the Tiger Cats.

Here is a query in relation to that game.....we look at how an away favorite in a divisional game does that has a worse record than their present opponent....this has been 2-8 ATS

AF and DIV and t:wins<o:wins

VERSUS Tiger Cats

Still, as I've mentioned, when there is a clear indicator of what the bookmaker wants us to do, we pause and either do the opposite or make it a "no-play".

I am  playing neither the Alouettes, nor the Tiger Cats.

Lines are moving rapidly....obviously I didn't get an optimal line in the Redblacks' game....hopefully you will  have if you're playing the game.

Lesson learned....Warren Buffet was famously quoted as saying,

"The markets take money from those who are impatient and gives it to those who are patient."

The line is moving up in our totals play so we will have gotten a good line, and another line is moving in a favorable direction for a game that I haven't played yet.

We'll see how things unfold.

Here's an angle that supports the Tiger Cats as an away favorite.

We take an away favorite off a bye that is playing the same game number as their present opponent,,,,meaning their opponent already had their bye.

6-3 ATS (+6.72) 8-1 straight up (+12.33)

AF and game number=o:game number and rest>8 and o:rest<9