Timing when to make a play is an inexact science Hoodman and as we've seen, the CFL (and also the WNBA) are the most volatile markets in sports wagering.
As evidenced by the sportsbooks putting out the lines so much later than they would in the NFL, they generally don't like to take bets on the CFL and I'd be willing to bet that their profit in the CFL early season is non-existent.
The general way for sides is that 75% of the moves will be going towards the favorite.
Ya , and it seams that they stay on the half number like 2.5 and 4.5 , 5.5 until I get a chance to see it again , and then it might be one book that would be right on the line. So far 2 game's have been decide by 4 and 6 points. Three games by 13 points. Seven game's decided by 7pt's or under and 5 games by 13pt's and over. Our line's were pretty close to each other this week , our o/u differ some ,but it's nice to see what others come up with for lines. I like to see how far apart my line's are at the start and then when they close , if there far apart at first I feel like jumping on it and then when they close where not to far apart or I'm more than 3 the other way. And so far I think this week all the Fav's have at least 70%.
Here is an awesome angle....
We take a team that has averaged a delta points scored of worse than-7 per game their last two games and put them on the road in a divisional game....95-54 ATS.
If that team lost both games...41-22 ATS.
If this game is before week 10.....25-4 ATS (+10.26), 20-9 straight up (+7.26). If this team is an away favorite this has been 9-0, winnng by an average of 19 points/game and covering by an average of over 15 points/game.
Average line/total +2.8/51.2.......average score.....29.7-22.5
tS(dps, N=2)<-7 and AF, AD and DIV and p:L and pp:L and game number<10
Tiger Cats
Correction....tS(dps, N=2)<-7 means an aggregate of less than 7 points scored than expected in their last two game NOT an average, which still holds true for the Tiger Cats
tA(dps, N=7)<-7 would mean an average of the past two games......the results of a team aveaging worse than -7 points a game more than expected is 26-17 ATS, 6-1 ATS as away favorites.
Onto another topic....the CFL on their website have media types, they call "experts" picking games. There's 7 or 8 of them and they are asked who will win each game...NOT against the spread, so all they have to do is pick a winner, which should be much easier than against the spread.
The results? In totality, they have a won/loss record of 27 wins and 45 losses, which equates to 37.5%. If handicapping or reading this thread for that matter is a chore for you, all one has to do to make money in pro football is to find a website with a few media types and/or ex-players and find their consensus picks for that week and play the opposite teams.
Who are the experts on this week?
1) 50% on the Alouettes so no consensus
2) 83% are on the Lions
3) 83% are on the Bombers
This is the amended query text from two posts above...it is 19-3 ATS, including 5-0 ATS (+17.70) and 5-0 straight up (+21.60) as away favorites.
tA(dps, N=2)<-7 and AF, AD and DIV and p:L and pp:L and game number<10
A road divisional team off two straight losses, where they scored 7 points/game less than what than what they were expected to score (delta points scored, or dps), in game numbers 1-9.
If that team in the above situation had an equal or greater regular season record last season (PRSW>=o:PRSW) this moves to 9-0 ATS, covering by an average of 17 points/game.
Tiger Cats
There are three indicators for the UNDER, one of which is listed below, and one for the OVER.
The one angle I like the most is,.....
an away non-divisional favorite before week 6 with less than or equal wins to their present opponent has been 6-15 ATS (-3.74) and 7-14 O/U (-0.60). If the total is less than 50, it is 2-6 ATS (-2.62) and 1-7 O/U (-4.25)
Average line/total -3.4/48
Average score 22.2-21-5
Lean......UNDER
A divisional away favorite having a winning percentage below .500, off two straight losses before week 13....8-0 ATS, covering by an average of over 13 points/game and winning by greater than 17 points/game.
Tiger Cats
tA(W)<.5 and week<13 and AF and DIV and p:L and pp:L
I bit the bullet and took Hamilton despite saying that I wouldn't. Welcome to the dark side Indigo!
Season record to date 11-5
Plays:
1) Hamilton ML
2) Hamilton/Montreal OVER 46
3) Ottawa +2
3) Ottawa +2 loser
2) Tiger Cats ML winner
1) Tiger Cats OVER loser
12-7 on the season.
Terrible pick, terrible game....Redblacks are a pass or fade. I don't blame Nichols, I blame the offensive play calling. I'm firing LaPolice after the season. Never throws the ball down the field, never does play action, never throws the ball on first down. The difference between someone who is clued in and calls a good game and one who doesn't is Toronto and Ottawa,...both terrible teams their previous season....Toronto will win the division and Ottawa will win 2 games.
Play:
4) Calgary/Winnipeg UNDER 44
My side plays have been what has been expected....my totals plays?... mediocre at best....we're on UNDERs until UNDERs stop happening.
And, it's not just the CFL, UNDERs are prolific right now in the WNBA and started out that way in the NFL as well.
NCAA football has started and in September those games historically have gone UNDER....ride the trend.
Either defenses have suddenly gotten smarter or offenses have started to outsmart themselves. I understand that turnovers dictate who wins and loses football games. But the same analytics says that yards per pass attempt is almost as important. If you throw 5 yard passes the whole game, you'll play a lot of UNDERs and lose football games, especially in the CFL, unless the other team gifts you turnovers.
You will win 77% of your football games by winning the turnover battle.
You will win 69% of your football games by having the higher yards per pass attempt.
Betregal has set a total of 44' in the Alouettes/Redblacks game next week...they might score that in two games.
3) Hamilton ML winner
2) Hamilton OVER loser
1) Ottawa +2 loser
Established in 1995,
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