Indigo week 5

15-9 ATS for the season.

Home team

Lions         -1          Eskimos      54

Bombers   -12         Argonauts   51

Redblacks  -8         Alouettes     54'

Tiger Cats  -3         Stampeders  52

Toronto should be set at quarterback for the season with Bethel-Thompson.

We'll see what the bookies put out tomorrow.

Early leans on Eskimos as a dog, Alouettes and the Stampeders at those numbers.

I have a 36-23 angle that favors the Alouettes and the Stamps.

AD and tA(ats margin)<oA(ats margin) and game number<10 and not DIV and (n:F or on:D)

 

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Indigo999, I played around with your query in Post #2.

What's up Polar?  Nice start to the season for your Bombers.....as with all my betting, I take out the parochial feelings of a team. 

And for you Stamps guys, nice win on the weekend.

Don't take it personally if I don't like your team on a particular weekend or your quarterback.

I am as big a Vikings fan as there is and I will against them at the proper time...I suppose Stamps backers can take solace in that they've won a ton more Grey Cups than the Vikings have won Super Bowls if that makes you feel better.  The Vikings now have a quarterback that's never gonna win a Super Bowl for them....so, so much for being a fan, if it can make you money, it's all well and good, I've seen fans of teams that being a fan cost them a great deal of money.  Blindly betting on your Stamps would have made you a great deal of monry the past 3+ seasons....my opinion this year is that they will have some difficulty.

Is that opinion wrong?....I am wrong at least 42% of the time, so we'll see if this is one of those times.

Kirk Cousins may not be as bad as you fear, Indigo999.  Football Outsiders ranked him #2 in their 2018 Passing Plus-Minus article:

Thanks for sharing your discovery Dogbite,....makes one pause if the Stamps are less than or equal to +3 this coming weekend.

Obviously the number 3 is important, but not as important as it is in the NFL as the predisposition in the CFL to go for 2 lessens the chance of the number landing on 3. 

So, inquiring minds want to know, what percentage of the time does the home team win by exactly 3 points?

Home favorites winning by exactly 3 points...

1)  CFL   5.8% of the time

2)  NFL   8.9% of the time

So, is it good logic to pay extra juice to stay on -3, paying, say -130 in the CFL or the NFL?

The math says it should be about -119 in the NFL and -116 in the CFL, so you are getting the worst of it by buying up to -120, -125 or -130 on -3 for a home team.

The sportbooks know this and have smarter math geeks and computers than you and I are or have.  They will always have it figured out in advance to give them an advantage.  The advantage we have is that we don't have to be on every game, we can think like a book and know what their tendencies are, we can know that the public will bet favorites and OVERs, which in the history of the CFL is the lower percentage play, and we can know that in betting that what happened last game is NOT what will happen the next game.  In fact, if one dismisses the last game's results you will win more than you'll lose.  Betting on a team that lost their two previous games by 50 and 25 points is not easy (Argonauts), and you look like a fool and feel like a fool if you bet on a team like that and lose.  It is sooo much easier to be on a team like the Tiger Cats who were rolling and had stomped their present opponent just the week before by 31 points.

If you can think like the above paragraph, you can negate the bookmaker's house advantage of 2.3% over the longer term.

It often turns into a game of history and math, more than it does knowledge of football.....otherwise ex-players and ex-coaches would be rich, right?

 

 

Found a pretty good query, though with limited results....

1)  Our play ON team has not won a game yet

2)  An away dog of >7 points

3)  Game number 3 or greater

9-3-1 ATS, 7-1-1 ATS, if a non-divisonal game.....Argos

line>7 and t:wins=0 and game number>2 and AD  and playoffs=0 and not DIV

Perhaps we'll get 17 points as Hoody's power ratings have the Bombers at.

I think only 2 games have been decided by 3 pt's  and 3 games by 7pt's. Had to go back to the old forum to write anything , the new one has a little square to type in and keeps saying to log in after I already logged in.

same for me hoody this site is crazy

No lines as of yet, bookies dragging their feet.  I've been holding my hand up now for a couple of years telling whoever that I'd make a good line maker for the CFL,.....so far the phone has not rung.

Week lookahead lines

Stamps      -12      Argos      54

Alouettes    +3       Eskimos  54

Bombers      -6      Redblacks  49

Sasquatches -5      Lions       50

 

 

Keep holding, I think I've been doing the cfl for 10 or 12 yr's also do the NFL but I don't post them , I do send them to spottie from time to time. Can't get them to post right when I do the nfl , I don't know why.

Lines still not out....make me suspicious.

Could be thee possible explanatations.

1)  The bookies are getting killed in the CFL

2)  There is suspicion that there are players on the take in the CFL...CFL salaries are not tha high and those are the type of situations where someone could be coerced or motivated to make extra money.

3)  The CFL linemaker is on vacation.

Think we messed them up

Indigo don't you think we should at least have the cover's line by now ?

I don't know much about the covers' line Hood Man.  I've never seen a covers' line and didn't know it existed.

Perhaps the CFL will go the way of the WNBA where they put out a line 3 hours before the game starts, which doesn't make much sense....it isn't the lack of information that the CFL puts out in regards to injuries or availability like it is in W that lets books lose.  The CFL does a very good job in regards to  public knowledge of injuries.

The lines in the CFL are beatable, plain and simple.

I just checked Heritage Sports.  They haven't posted the CFL lines, but the NFL Week 1 lines are already up.

Cover's line's are in the matchups , which now makes me wonder where does or who's line are cover's using .

Not having lines apparently cripples the Sports Database.  No query results are yet being produced for this week's games.

Noticed on another site the offshore odd's are gone.

Instead of using "AD" or "AF" Dogbite, one can use "A" which will lead to a result which you will then need to separate into favorites or dogs.

Gp back about 11 years, teams starting out unbeaten after 4 games (Bombers) have won the Grey Cup 5 out of 10 times.

Interestingly, those unbeaten teams after game four have been 3-12 ATS as favorites in the regular season, losing half of their games, despite being favorite by an average of 6+ points.

t:losses = 0 and game number > 4 and F

Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Instead of using "AD" or "AF" Dogbite, one can use "A" which will lead to a result which you will then need to separate into favorites or dogs.

11-19-0 (-2.77, 36.7%)

That isn't solid enough for me to fade, but it's nice to know and keep in mind. 

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