O/U regular season wins guesses

I'm not a linemaker, ok?  Season is about 5-6 weeks away and to stimulate discussion I'm making my own CFL over/under regular season wins lines as if I am the linemaker.  I'll be keeping my day job.

I don't keep up with off-season stuff as much as North Americans will be, so this is mostly based off last year's observations and some of the new coaching hires.  I'll expect to learn some stuff from the locals and be told when/if I'm wrong about my information.  The regular season wins of Vegas are usually shaded towards optimism and the total wins of the combined teams will be over what the calculated wins off all the teams will be at the end of the season.

The homers can chime in and mostly the CFL thread is pretty great with one obnoxious exception.

RSW lines 

1)  Montreal  6.5

Can they be any worse than last year?  Can their quarterbacking be any worse?  If Montreal doesn't improve somewhat this year, they'll officially be the Cleveland Browns of the CFL.  I expect they'll improve by virtue of Mike Sherman being a solid NFL coach and getting rid of Colvillo as the offensive coordinator and playing in a crummy division.  But Josh Johnson?.....eh, IDK.  Lean to the OVER.

2)  Hamilton  9  

June Jones and the CFL is a marriage made in heaven and Hamilton came on last year like a poor man's 49ers team at the end of the season.   He made a superstar out of Timmy Chang in college so what will he do with Masoli (or possibly Johnny M)? They have a very good defensive coordinator back from coaching up Fresno State last year.  I expect they'll win the division.  They will be my favorite team to play ON early in the season.  OVER.

3)  Ottawa 8.5  

Every year they season it seems  like they're the same team, with the exception of their one lucky playoff run.  No play.

4)  Toronto  8

It was evident to me and a few forumites last year that Ricky Ray  has an arm that not even regular ice baths can fix.  Expect heavy regression to the mean this year as everyone will be up for the champs that really weren't that good last year.  A bet against in the beginning of the year.  Big UNDER.

5)  British Columbia   7

I don't see much difference in what they'll do this year....they are expecting Jonathan Jennings to lead this team still?  He might look like superman in street clothes and can throw it a country mile, but his brain functions only slightly better than Deshone Kizer.   I don't understand too much why a gamer that lifts his team like Travis Lulay was NOT in for every snap, but sometimes coaches fall in love with potential.   I like Wally Bueno, but I think the game may have passed him by.  UNDER.

6)  Roughriders (because I can't be bothered spelling their first name) 11

I love the Green Riders and I love their defense, evidently Jones talks with Bill Parcells regularly and has adopted the Parcells strategy of allowing rushing yards and rushing the passer effectively and playing good pass defense.  Having Zach C as their quarterback is a concern to me....he looked like he had lost it last year.  It's a quarterback league and having a bottom tier quarterback won't win it for you.  I'm all for him coming back into form, we'll see.  OVER 11.

7)  Blue Bombers  11

I like Matt Nichols more than any other quarterback in the league.  Their defense seems to give away plenty of late leads and if they aren't creating turnovers they've been below average.  Mo Liggett is a linchpin for them and he was injured last year.  Their offense is a machine though and that's especially good on the road.  I'm thinking it will be a 3 horse race in the division between the Sasquatches, Bombers and Stamps.  I would play them OVER 11.

8)  Eskimos 10

Think they may regress this year.....I'm not feeling them.  Riley is a gamer, but the rest of the team seems average.  I'd play them UNDER at this number.

9)  Stamps  12

Every year they chalk up the wins in machine-like fashion only to find a way to lose it when it really counts.  Their defensive system is second to none.  Wonder if Bo Levi's arm/shoulder problems follow him around this year?  Unless their defensive coordinator isn't around this year they'll continue to win games in about the most boring way possible.  NO PLAY at 12 as every year they rack up the  wins.

Hi Aussie....yes GL on the season...I put the Tiger Cat's win total at 9 and that might be too low, as it is likely that it's just not you and me that were seeing the same thing last year.  If we use the 49ers as a comparison, the season wins total  is for them to go 9-7 this year after winning 5 games last year....the equivalent for the CFL would be for Hamilton to go 10-8.  Vegas rarely gives out freebies, even though we're both helleva good guys and they should once in awhile.

Nice to see you Hoodman.  I check out your threads frequently.

999 ,  I'll start with Mon they only won 16 gm's the last 3 seasons , Sherman is a good coach but has coach but has coached high school  the last 2yrs.  As for Off coord Jones  to me he is still more a qb coach ,Def cord Carter was the best pick up for the team being with Cal the last 2 yrs. Off line coach Dunn i rate a C .Def line coach Hill has many yrs in the nfl i rate him a B. Those are the main coaches i look at. No team has won 10 or more gms in the east the last 2 yrs , with that said i put Mon  UN your 6.5 wins buddy , i may be wrong we will se soon. I'll do Ham next.

Ok Ham ,Jones & Glanville go hand in hand , OLC McKnight coached almost everything rb's,more on special teams & OL He's where he belongs , DLC McPhee ,what can you say he's been there for yr's . And taking a wr with the 1st pick should say a little something, winning 6 gm's last yr and 7 before that i think your number is about right 9 wins sounds good & i think your right this may be a team to play ats this yr. Mon picked OL , Ham wr so i like the pk and coaches i see them getting better, will Glanville leave tickets for Elvis? He always did in the nfl. 9's a good number.

I would say about the same with Ott , Tor you never know  , like the un with Mon now that DC  Carter is gone.

Haha....Durrant to you is Pondexter in the W for me.  Could be the Bombers year.

Early probables for week 1.

1)  Edmonton  if dog

2)  Montreal if dog

Week 2

1)  Hamilton if dog

2)  Als if dog

3)  Riders if dog

One betting tidbit for now....

In the regular season

Teams that score >20 points as underdogs have been 360-108-9 ATS (76.9%) ATS and 303-167-7 OVER (64.5%).

Teams that score <=20 points as underdogs have been 75-249-5 ATS (23.1%) ATS and 68-258-4 OVER (20.9%) 

This shows, as most already know.....YOU HAVE TO SCORE TO COVER in the CFL.

My guess is Edm and Mon will be dogs in wk 1 (edm-Win) will be close ( Mon-BC) not sure yet still working on my ratings. Win had a good ats standing last yr.

there's so many add's on here  now ,i almost can't get in the forum, can't see who saying what any more

Just heard that Drew Willy is the likely Als quarterback...if so, FADE.

How is it that a team can go multiple seasons without addressing the most important position on the football field?

It is a sign of very poor management by the organization.  

Will be surprised, very surprised if Montreal wins more than 7 games this year.

Well you should maybe look into that Redblacks Under now as Harris got hit hard in the pre season game and early reports suggesting he has done his ACL

If Harris is done, things would look very positive for Hamilton.  Good information!

Toronto is the best team in the East.....there was a media poll on who would win the Grey Cup.....Edmonton was the overwhelming favourite....go figure....its just a media poll...but, I was surprised that the Eskimos were OVERWHELMING favourites.

Welcome aboard Cannon....I think Toronto will be a pointspread wasteland this year, they were mediocre last year until the playoffs and Rickey got another year older and they've got a big target on their back......we'll see who's right.

As I said before,....I'm not feeling Edmonton this year and I'd pick them to be fourth in their division.....if Riley were to get hurt they would be quite a bit below 500.

Good fortune to ya.

Yes, well, if Jennings fell down the stairs tomorrow and was declared out for the season, I'd consider the Lions, but if either the head coach or the qb is a knucklehead, I can't consider them as witnessed by what happened to the Browns last year with their quarterback.  

And, every other team in their division looks very much better than them.  Nothing they showed last year, told me they have any advantage coaching-wise or at the quarterback position.

Things usually don't stay the same though, and I think Wally is a class act....I'd love to see the Lions spring some upsets.

And as a side note....I went 2-0 in NRL this weekend with the Roosters and Cowboys.....I am becoming more an aussie by the minute.

OVER has gone 376-433 in the history of my database, which means that UNDER has cashed 54% of the time.

Totals generally are in the 50s by Vegas...the default plays in the CFL are dogs and UNDER.....in fact if the total is >50, OVER has won 43.5% of the time.

thanks for the info Indigo