Week 1 Indigo lines 2021

D and day!=Thursday and day!=Monday  and 1<week<17 and site!=neutral and season>1990 and on:DIV and on:line>3

226-115 66.3%

I don’t expect the lines to hit the board Early Monday.  I think I get will show mid after or later on Monday or sometime Tuesday.  

We are getting close.  I get more excited to see the lines then I do for watching the game. 

Here's another one.....

(n:line<-6 or on:line>6) and day!=Saturday and day!=Thursday and site!=neutral and week<17 and not AF and month>8 and HF, HD, AD

As:

Home favorites.....865-709 ATS, 55%.......week 1 42-35 ATS,.......Bucs

Away dogs...........780-509 ATS, 60.5%.....week 1 60-37 ATS ......Packers, Browns

Home dogs..........134-82 ATS, 62%

I will note that a team that is an away dog that will be at least a 10 point favorite their next game has only been 5-7 ATS in week 1....Browns 

Home favorites  with the better record last season with them being underdogs next game OR their opponent being the future favorite have only covered 43.7% of their games.

In week 1, this has been 51-81 ATS.

(n:D or on:F) and day!=Saturday and day!=Thursday and site!=neutral and week<17  and month>8 and HF and PRSW>o:PRSW

week 1.....Bills, Panthers, Titans, Chiefs, Rams

If our favorite will be at least a 3 point dog next game or their opponent will be at least a 3 point favorite this moves to 42-77 ATS, 35.3% in week 1....Bills, Titans, Chiefs, Rams

304-46, 40.5%

(n:D or on:F) and day!=Saturday and day!=Thursday and site!=neutral and week<17  and month>8 and HF and PRSW>o:PRSW and DIV

On to
NFL:

25 to 30 plays a season. These favorites do well. Avoid betting dogs here.
332.232 59%
F and p:F and p:DIV and n:F and tpS(W@DIV, N=6)>1 and season>2002

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107.57 65%
D and line <7 and DIV and tpS(W@DIV, N=6)<3 and season>2003 and week<6

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63.26 70.8%
tpS(W@DIV, N=6)<3 and D and season > 2009 and DIV and line<=6 and line>=0 and week<6

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172.56 75.4% week>1
AD and n:F and on:D and o:wins < 9 and o:rest < 7 and day != Thursday and p:D and PRSW < 12 and o:PRSW < 12 and season > 1991 and p:day != Thursday and p:day!= Monday

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30.11 ATS
DIV and D and week=1 and line<=6 and season>2009

=--==--==-=-

35.73 32.4%  Good fade situation against dogs and favorites.

DIV and P:W and line >= -6 and H and week < 13 and ats streak < 1 and n:day!= Monday and PRSW>6 and week>2 and season>1998 

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query is for weeks: week>1 week<8

week < 8 and p:DIV and DIV and p:L and ats streak < 0 and PRSW < 13 and o:PRSW > 2 and day= Sunday and HD,AD,HF

HF 32-23 ATS

HD 28-12 ATS

AD 55-30 ATS

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160.63 71.3%

AD and n:F and on:D and op:points < 28 and o:wins < 9 and o:rest < 7 and day != Thursday and p:line>=-1 and PRSW<12 and o:PRSW<12

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week=1 Jets, Eagles

AD and PRSW<7 and week = 1 and opS(playoffs) < 2 and not DIV and season>1998 and line<10

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After week 1. 172-56= 75.4% ATS

AD and n:F and on:D and o:wins < 9 and o:rest < 7 and day != Thursday and p:D and PRSW < 12 and o:PRSW < 12 and season > 1991 and p:day != Thursday and p:day!= Monday

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BAD teams off a bye as Sunday HD's line>6

27.09 ATS

HD and rest > 10 and line > 6 and day= Sunday

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156-49, 76%

AD and n:F and on:D and p:D and o:wins < 9 and o:rest =6 and day != Thursday and PRSW < 12 and o:PRSW < 12 and season > 1991 and p:day != Thursday and p:day!= Monday

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52-22, 70.3% ATS

p:points <4 and p:H and D and PRSW>4 and week>3 and line<9

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46-16 74.2% ATS

p:points <4 and p:H and D and week>11 and PRSW<12

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My tweak : on:DIV= 848-619 57.8%

D and day!=Thursday and day!=Monday and (n:F or on:D) and 1<week<17  and site!=neutral and season>1990 and on:DIV

==-=-=--==-=-=-=--=-==-

 (n:D or on:F) and day!=Saturday and day!=Thursday and site!=neutral and week<17  and month>8 and HF and PRSW>o:PRSW and DIV

A dog whose next game line is 6 or more points stronger than their present opponent's line.

Example....the Chiefs are scheduled to be 1 point road favorites in week 2 versus the Ravens.  The Browns are 13 point favorites over the Texans...this is a qualifying play.

738-416 ATS, 64.3%, 55-31 ATS as away dogs week 1.

1)  Browns +6

2)  Packers +1, as they are due to be 8 point favorites over the Lions week 2 and the Saints are 2 point away favorites versus the Panthers.

3)  Cardinals +2', they are 2.5 point favorites versus Vikings week 2, and the Titans are due to be 3.5 point away dogs to the Seahawks.

Ok another ? in #156 Spottie's thread 4th one down starts (AD and n:F and on:D) what am I missing if your an away dog and your next game your a fav wouldn't your opp be a Dog? Why woundn't you just leave (on:D) out of it?

to me on:D means you are not really facing a team that is a favorite every week.  That eliminates key situations against elite opponents.  Sometimes the book also might inflate a F as they know they will be dogs next week and that will chase away action on this team next week.  Can’t trust dogs that don’t cover when they are supposed to. 

on: D doesn’t always work, it’s just something to consider. Illuminates line value in certain situations. 

it can also increase the winning percent and ROI while reducing the number of plays. 

Search it and Try leaving it out and see the difference. 

CFL:

Fade Saskatchewan

HF and n:HD and day != Thursday and day != Sunday and day!= Tuesday 

We'll use the Titans being a 2.5 point favorite as an example in week one.

n:D denotes that the Titans will be a dog next game

on:F denotes that the Cardinals will be a favorite next game, so "on" stands for opponent's next, or the present opponent in week 1 (the Cardinals) who will be a favorite their next game in week 2 being -2.5 at home versus the Vikings.

Not so sure the Sasquatches will be a dog in week 2. I have them the second ranked team in the league, 2 points less than the Cats.

What do you have Hoody?

Here is statfox' power ratings

1        Winnipeg                                                                            37

There in my power rankings thread

The power ranking I have in my head are bit different than you guys.  I believe Sask will be a dog next week.  That doesn't mean I am correct just my .02.

A team that, if they beat Winnipeg in week 1 will be 17-4 SU last 21 coming off a win vs. the Champs and I predict Sask doesnt cover will end up at some poin in the week catching points Vs. the Ticats and I will cash on the home dog Sask Riders next week too.  Just the way I see it

In the month of September, teams that are away dogs that won more than 10 games last season, that will be favorites their next two games and had the lesser record last season than their week 1 opponent...these teams have been 12-1-2 ATS, 8-7 straight up.

If their present opponent also will be favorites their next two games, this has been 9-0-2 ATS

Steelers, Browns

AD, HD and n:F and nn:F and PRSW < o:PRSW and PRSW>10 and month = 9 and on:F and onn:F

@Indigo999

 I like the Browns.  

With week 1 away dogs that outrush their opponents being 94-32 ATS, covering by an average of +7.04/game....I am starting to like the Browns more and more.

Steelers not as much.

AD and RY>o:RY and week

It is just as pronounced in college football,....those teams cover by an average of >8 points/game in September in competitive games.

AD and rushing yards>o:rushing yards and game number and month=9 and line<14

Probably will re-think my Indiana play week 1 versus Iowa, as the Hoosiers only rushed for about 3 yards/carry last season, they aren't gonna outrush Iowa.

On the other hand.....home dogs of less than 14 that outrush their opponents in games 1-3 in September have been 95-31 ATS (+6.83/game), 74.8% in NCAA football.

The UCLA Bruins last season rushed for 231 yards/game last season and LSU rushed for 122/game.

HD and rushing yards >o:rushing yards and month = 9 and line < 14 and game number<4 and division=1A

@Indigo999

 Iowa is a cover machine in recent years.  They do have an in state game rival in Iowa State next week, but I am not betting against Iowa at home against an Indiana team.  They got hot last season but see if they can do that again.  

NCAA football.

Home dogs of less than 14 points that score greater than 24 points in that game cover 81% of the time in September (421-99 ATS) and 77.7% of the time in any game. 

HD and points>24 and division=1A and line<14

This moves to a 84.6% covering rate in September if our play on team will be a favorite the following week or their opponent will be a dog.  UCLA will be a home favorite their following game with Fresno State.

Most likely home dogs to score >24 points?.....Florida State, Arizona and UCLA.

FSU

Anytime you use n:F in the playoffs you will get a perfect record because the losing team doesn't continue playing.

@Indigo999

yea I think I MIGHT have missed that.  I was a little bit busy and trying to remember everything.

I hope the Lines show tomorrow.