Posted:
#176
I'm going to guess the end of the week ,but I hope your right.
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Week 1 Indigo lines 2021
Posted:
#179
Alllllrighty.....seeing how this IS a CFL thread, I thought I'd give a couple of CFL angles. Don't want the CFL aficionados to feel left out.
Away dogs game numbers 1-4 that had a positive scoring margin from their last 6 regular season games the previous season......34-14 ATS.......Roughriders, Tiger Cats, Lions, Stampeders.
season=2019 and team and game number>12 and playoffs=0
tpS(margin, N=6)>0 and AD and game number<5
Teams that won 4 or 5 games out of their last 6 regular season games the previous season that are away dogs in game numbers 1-4.......30-7 ATS.....Roughriders, Stampeders
tpS(W, N=6) and AD and game number<5
Teams that won 3 or less games out of their last 6 games in the regular season the previous season, as home favorites in games 1-4......29-53 ATS.....Lions, Alouettes, Elks, Bombers, Argonauts, Redblacks.
If our play-against team above is either to be a dog their next game or their present opponent will be a favorite, this moves to 22-46 ATS.
tpS(W, N=6)<4 and HF and game number<5 and (n:D or on:F)
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Posted:
#180
Weirdest schedule ever. Never seen one team in pro football play their first four games at home (Roughriders) and not play a road game until week 6......what?...are the planes not working in Saskatchewan or something?
They're waiting on a few parts to come from China?
Stamps play their first three at home and 4 out of their first five.
The Stamps and the Riders better start out hot, as Forrest Gump says,
"That is all I gotta say about that."
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Posted:
#181
One last NFL angle, using some of our parameters mentioned in the earlier parts of the thread.
in Game 1s, teams that
a) had the same or less wins last season than their week 1 opponent
b) will have the stronger next week's line
c) won less than four division games last season
d) will be a home favorite or away dog in week 1.
tpS(W@DIV, N=6)<4 and week=1 and PRSW<o:PRSW and n:line<on:line and day!=Thursday and HF, AD and season>2002
As home favorites 13-6 ATS.....Patriots
As away dogs 43-14 ATS.....Eagles, Cardinals, Browns
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Posted:
#182
I like these
As home favorites 13-6 ATS.....Patriots
As away dogs 43-14 ATS.....Eagles, Cardinals, Browns
Tennessee I think will regress after some really decent seasons.
Eagles I am sure will be better Browns trending up and Chiefs down. Dolphins who knows but no history of being good in consecutive seasons.
minimum 2-2 and 4-0 is very possible
Spottie2935 on socials
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Posted:
#185
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
One last NFL angle, using some of our parameters mentioned in the earlier parts of the thread. in Game 1s, teams that a) had the same or less wins last season than their week 1 opponent b) will have the stronger next week's line c) won less than four division games last season d) will be a home favorite or away dog in week 1. tpS(W@DIV, N=6)<4 and week=1 and PRSW2002 As home favorites 13-6 ATS.....Patriots As away dogs 43-14 ATS.....Eagles, Cardinals, Browns
One last NFL angle, using some of our parameters mentioned in the earlier parts of the thread. in Game 1s, teams that a) had the same or less wins last season than their week 1 opponent b) will have the stronger next week's line c) won less than four division games last season d) will be a home favorite or away dog in week 1. tpS(W@DIV, N=6)<4 and week=1 and PRSW2002 As home favorites 13-6 ATS.....Patriots As away dogs 43-14 ATS.....Eagles, Cardinals, Browns
That query also works for week 2, but the ATS margin for the AD's is much narrower - just 2.22. The HF's ATS margin in week 2 is 6.26 - very solid.
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Posted:
#186
NFL
Another one....this is probably as good as I have found in a sample size of greater than 500 games....we'll save it here for posterity's sake.
Parameters:
1) weeks 2-10
2) Our play ON team's next game line is stronger than their present opponent's next game line
3) Our play ON team won equal or less games in the regular season last year than their present opponent
4) Finally, our team has the calculated line DISADVANTAGE
"What does that mean Indigo?...calculated disadvantage?!!! What?"
"Ok Buckwheat put on your thinking cap, here we go."
We total up and average the season-to-date game margins of the two teams that are playing each other.........Teams A and B. Say team A has an average of +6/game, which means they are averaging 6 more points scored than allowed. Team B meanwhile has an average margin of -3/game. The difference between the two teams is that team A is 9 points/game better than team B. If Team A is at home to Team B, they get 3 points for home field...the calculated line is Team A -12 over Team B. Now if Team A is only -8, Team B has the calculated DISADVANTAGE (they should be getting more points shouldn't they?) and if team B fits parameters 2 and 3, they would qualify as a play of Team B +8.
If however, Team A was -15 and they fit the parameters #2 and #3, Team A would be a play.
Here is the query and the results.....
n:line<on:line and week<11 and PRSW<=o:PRSW and oA(margin)-tA(margin)-line>0
Home favorite.......129-74 ATS (+4.06), 63.5%
Home dog............. 69-27 ATS (+5.34), 71.9%
Away favorite.......... 15-9 ATS (+2.42), 62.5%
Away dog..............141-70 ATS (+4.27), 66.8%
Why does this work?....the short answer is that nothing stays the same and entities tend to move towards balance in the universe....if something is going really good/bad, things tend to reverse and the composite ends up somewhere in the middle.
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Posted:
#189
I wasn't supposed to tell you this, but I am being paid by the books to spy on ALL of the CFL bettors, because it is well-known in the industry that if anyone will take down Las Vegas, it is the CFL punting crowd. Being a double reverse agent I am holding off these sharks that would secretly poison your milk that you put on your Captain Crunch.
Start locking your fridges.
AND, all of my queries have secret codes in them, kinda like when the Beatles did backwards masking on their hit records.....decipher the code and the pot o' gold awaits.
1
Posted:
#190
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
I wasn't supposed to tell you this, but I am being paid by the books to spy on ALL of the CFL bettors, because it is well-known in the industry that if anyone will take down Las Vegas, it is the CFL punting crowd. Being a double reverse agent I am holding off these sharks that would secretly poison your milk that you put on your Captain Crunch. Start locking your fridges. AND, all of my queries have secret codes in them, kinda like when the Beatles did backwards masking on their hit records.....decipher the code and the pot o' gold awaits.
I wasn't supposed to tell you this, but I am being paid by the books to spy on ALL of the CFL bettors, because it is well-known in the industry that if anyone will take down Las Vegas, it is the CFL punting crowd. Being a double reverse agent I am holding off these sharks that would secretly poison your milk that you put on your Captain Crunch. Start locking your fridges. AND, all of my queries have secret codes in them, kinda like when the Beatles did backwards masking on their hit records.....decipher the code and the pot o' gold awaits.
Spottie2935 on socials
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Posted:
#191
Game 1 is now open.
The books are obviously wanting to attract Bombers money as the defending champs are +3.5 at home.
Winnipeg will be favored their next two games versus the Argos, which puts them in a 121-52 ATS situation, which moves to 63-23 ATS if they won less games last season than their present opponent.
Also, this becomes 42-11-1 ATS if our PLAY ON team made the playoffs last season, covering by an average of more than 7 points/game and winning straight up 30 out of the 54 times.
D and n:F and nn:F and nn:playoffs = 0 and PRSW<o:PRSW and tpS(playoffs)>0
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Posted:
#195
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
I am entering a Vegas football contest this season for the second time. About 20 years ago I entered one, a very small one which didn't require me to sign up in person, as I was living in Australia at the time.....I won, hitting 65% in a season where I was in the zone,.....and made over six figures for the season. We'll see what happens. Here are my week one picks. 1) Cardinals....this may travel north of +3, so I am waiting 2) Patriots -1'...laready locked in 3) Eagles +3'....I think the Eagles will be less bad than the Falcons 4) Broncos pik......Broncos will surprise this season and Giants are abysmal at home 5) Ravens -4'
I am entering a Vegas football contest this season for the second time. About 20 years ago I entered one, a very small one which didn't require me to sign up in person, as I was living in Australia at the time.....I won, hitting 65% in a season where I was in the zone,.....and made over six figures for the season. We'll see what happens. Here are my week one picks. 1) Cardinals....this may travel north of +3, so I am waiting 2) Patriots -1'...laready locked in 3) Eagles +3'....I think the Eagles will be less bad than the Falcons 4) Broncos pik......Broncos will surprise this season and Giants are abysmal at home 5) Ravens -4'
I love PHL in week 1. This query supports your pick:
week = 1 and F and n:line > 6.2 ATS: 15-41-5 (-5.12, 26.8%)
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Posted:
#198
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:
Week 1 favorites that that played in two playoff games the previous season have been 4-16 ATS. Home favorites 4-9 ATS, 7-6 straight up.....Elks Away favorites 0-7 ATS, 1-5-1 straight up....Tiger Cats tpS(playoffs)=2 and HF, AF and week=1
Week 1 favorites that that played in two playoff games the previous season have been 4-16 ATS. Home favorites 4-9 ATS, 7-6 straight up.....Elks Away favorites 0-7 ATS, 1-5-1 straight up....Tiger Cats tpS(playoffs)=2 and HF, AF and week=1
Make that a HD and that's 3-0 and a marg: of 7.17
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Posted:
#200
Bombers dominating.....Zach having a good game, but I'm not convinced yet about him...his first two passes should have been picked off.
Think the Bombers will win a lot of games this season, but like the Chiefs last season defending their title, I don't they're gonna cover the big lines they'll be giving.
The Tiger Cats?...their next game on the road at the Sasquatches will tell the tale...if they lose that, they'll likely be dealing with the dreaded runner-up hex the whole season. Real rough that they have to play their first three games on the road.
Picks...
1) Bombers UNDER 49'......winner
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