Week 1 Indigo lines 2021

From Comment #40

not DIV and D and week=1  and line<7 and season>2006

The ATS margin is only -1.14.  Considering the depressing fact that queries tend to regress and degrade over time, such a narrow margin provides me with very little confidence.  Spottie2935, if you are able to profit from queries with such a small edge I salute you.

Thank you for all of your time, effort and creative thinking to come up with potentially winning queries.  Good luck this season and all the years to come.

With all do I think the point he's saying is it's only 40.8%  and it's only 28.2% SU

The query for winning all 6 games in division the previous season is this.....tpS(W@DIV, N=6)=6.

The NFL went to 4 teams in a division with 8 divisions I think in 2002, so some of those teams before 2002 had more than 6 divisional games.

tpS(W@DIV, N=6)=6 and HF, HD, AF, AD and DIV and season>2002

You'll see that those teams have been 17-8 ATS as away dogs the next season in divisional games, and 51-64 ATS the next season as favorites in division......the Saints and the Bills were undefeated in division last season and the Jets went 0-6.

Teams that went an imperfect 0-6 are actually historically a good play in division the next season.

tpS(W@DIV, N=6) =0 and AD, HD, AF, HF and season > 2002 and playoffs=0 and DIV

As:

Home favorites 16-10 ATS

Away favorites 9-3 ATS

Home dogs      34-26 ATS

Away dogs      43-30 ATS

Altogether 106-71-3, 59.9% in divisional games the next season.....I think the Jets will be vastly improved this season and a cash cow against the spread.

Out of division though these teams have only been 133-157 ATS, 45.9%

Jets in their futures line in week 2 is a 3.5 point home dog to the Patriots.

@DogbiteWilliams

 I understand your point but the fact that they are dog in division games.  These game are generally tight games, thats why it works.

I was basically looking for current division games, after a previous division game, or next up is a division game.  also using PRSW because I try to stay away from teams that had wins <4 the previous season or teams greater  than  13 wins. those teams are always favorites or dogs. 

Potential look ahead or exhaustion lack of motivation teams or games.

tpS(W@DIV, N=6) =0 and AD, HD, AF, HF and season > 2002 and playoffs=0 and DIV and line <7

Using the above and using a line of<=6

tpS(W@DIV, N=6) = 0 and AD and season > 2002 and playoffs = 0 and DIV and line <=6 and line>=0

AD returns 21-8 ATS

=-=-=--=-=-=

tpS(W@DIV, N=6) = 0 and D and season > 2002 and playoffs = 0 and DIV and line <=6 and line>=0

any dog returns 60% 

tpS(W@DIV, N=6) = 0 and D and season > 2002 and playoffs = 0 and DIV and line <=6 and line>=0

any dog since 2009 returns close to 70%

tpS(W@DIV, N=6) = 0 and D and season > 2002 and playoffs = 0 and DIV and line <=6 and line>=0 and season>2009.

@DogbiteWilliams

 I’m not a favorite bettor but season over season this does make money.  

I was more looking for games or teams to eliminate.  

thanks for the comment.

Here's some interesting research.

Teams that went 5-1 or 6-0 straight up in divisional games the season prior this past season were the Saints, Bills, Titans and Packers.

How do those teams perform in September?

As dogs they've been 56-34 ATS, 62.2%, and if we subtract their 13-13 ATS mark as dogs in week one this moves to 43-21 ATS.  They have been 32-16 ATS out of division as dogs and 11-5 ATS in division.

As favorites they've only been 123-144 ATS in September about 46%.

season > 2002 and playoffs = 0 and tpS(W@DIV, N=6)>4 and month=9 and AF, AD, HF, HD and week

Teams that won 1 or 0 divisional games last season, how do they do in September?.....Jets, Lions, Falcons, Broncos, Jaguars, Bengals.

As:

Divisional home dogs.......25-14 ATS

non-divisional home dogs.......20-31 ATS, including 5-9 ATS week 1....Lions, Bengals

non-divisional away dogs........51-37 ATS......15-14 ATS week 1....Jets

divisional away dogs......34-25 ATS

divisional away favorites.....0-5 ATS....Jaguars

non-divisional away favorites.....11-7, 8-3 ATS first two weeks....Broncos

Looks like you're onto something Spot with your dogs of less than 6 in September games congrats!!

Away dogs <6, 38-16 ATS in September.

Home divisional dogs<6, 20-11 ATS in September.

Home non-divisional dogs<6 in September 12-23 ATS.

The best part of this seems to be to take a team that won 0, 1 or 2 divisional games in September that are away dogs of less than 6 points.

85-42 ATS

Texans, Eagles, Cowboys, Cardinals, Bears, Panthers, Lions, Jaguars, Falcons, Broncos, Bengals, Jets .............as away dogs of <6 in September

Keep up the good work buddy.

Home dogs of less than 6 in divisional games in September that won 0, 1, or 2 games in division the prior season have been 36-21 ATS.

Home dogs of less than 6 in non-divisional games in September that won 0, 1 or 2 games in division last season have been 32-38  ATS

Indigo whats the query. I get lost at time

season > 2002 and playoffs = 0 and tpS(W@DIV, N=6) and month = 9 and AD and line< 6

season > 2002 and playoffs = 0 and tpS(W@DIV, N=6)<3 and month = 9 and AD and line< 6

Using futures lines....obviously if the lines shift hits +6 or above it becomes a no-play

Week 1.....AGAINST  Jaguars

ON......Jets, Cards

Week 2   ON......Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Panthers, Cowboys

AGAINST Jags

Week 3 ON......Falcons, Bengals, Jets

AGAINST Jaguars

Week 4  ON Jaguars

Teams that won <3 games in division previous season and are home favorites of less than 6 have been 46-81 ATS in September in the first three weeks of the season.

Playing against teams that won <3 games in divisional games last season as home favorites of less than -6....45-81 ATS

Week 1...... Versus Panthers, Falcons

Week 2.......Versus Bears, Cardinals, Broncos

Week 3.......Versus Bengals

season > 2002 and playoffs = 0 and tpS(W@DIV, N=6)<3 and month = 9 and AD and line<=6

One can include <=6 the line of 6 is 10-6 ats.  heads up on that.

season > 2002 and playoffs = 0 and tpS(W@DIV, N=6)<3 and week<8 and AD and line<=6 and o:PRSW<13 and o:PRSW>4 and week

@hoody

 I am missing what you are saying hoody.

HD and line>=6 and rest>10 and ats streak>-2

NFL: After week 1.  172-56= 75.4% ATS

AD and n:F and on:D and o:wins < 9 and o:rest < 7 and day != Thursday and p:D and PRSW < 12 and o:PRSW < 12 and season > 1991 and p:day != Thursday and p:day!= Monday

This is for game numbers 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 in the NFL

Play against a home favorite of less than 4.5 points off an away loss.

110-177 ATS, 38.3%,.......2-15 ATS on Monday Night Football, 1-20 ATS the last two seasons.

p:AL and HF and line>-4.5 and game number<7 and day and snf

Criteria for our play ON team:

1)  Lost their first two games

2)  Won their third game

3)  Are now away dogs of less than 5.

Week number 4....18-1 ATS

Week number 5.....1-3-1 ATS

ppp:L and pp:L and p:W and AD and game number=4 and line<5 and week

NCAAFB: 

Looking at Conference games as dogs, since 1996,  and next game is also a conference game in which our dog team will be a favorite next week.  These dogs must not have won 12 games last season, because if they are a good team to win 12 and a dog then they are playing an unbeatable team like Alabama, Clemson or Ohio State ect.

1636-1274 =56.2% ATS

CD and n:CF and week<16 and PRSW<12 and season>1996

Since it is difficult to predict the close game lines I omitted next week lines less than -7( we are assuming lines for the next week, so to make it easy to predict these games)

CD and n:CF and week<16 and PRSW<12 and season>1996 and n:line<=-7

876-627 =58.3% ATS

Big seasons averages 8 games per week for 15 weeks  , about 120 plays

Smaller seasons about half that at 60 plays per season or an average of 4 plays a week.  Based this off the <=-7 line query so if you take all plays in the first query it would be close to double:  16 and 8 games per week.  to many for me, but very fun.

In college ball if I or anyone could average 54 to 60%, playing 4 or more games per week, I would take that all day long.

Lastly when looking at the next week lines, one doesn't have to be so accurate with a cushion of <-7 points over time if you miss a play or 2 it should continue to trend as shown.

I forgot one more parameter only division 1A games for both teams

CD and n:CF and week < 16 and PRSW < 12 and season > 1996  and division = 1A and o:division = 1A

1554-1197 =56.5%  ATS

and

CD and n:CF and week < 16 and PRSW < 12 and season > 1996 and division = 1A and o:division = 1A and n:line<=-7

834-581 =58.9%  ATS

Yep, you aren't going to get a line change of over 7 points from the estimated line to the actual line unless it is after game 1, and teams never play two conference games in a row, games 1 and 2.