Week 1 Indigo lines 2021

@Indigo999

 correct it is to begin week 3

right on 

NCAA FB WEEK 1:

Teams that crushed their bowl game (excluding playoff BCS final 4 games) beating their point spread by 20+points ats margin and covering their previous game before that bowl game.  The were favorites in that bowl game and head into the next season game 1 are 6-18 ATS

Georgia State is in this situation so the play is:

Army +3

I could not find the query language so I did this by hand and then looked into the next season team data.

t:team and game type = BG and ats margin>=20 and division=1A and F and ats streak>1

So far I have 2 week 1 plays:

Army +3 and FSU +9.5 

Fading Notre Dame

I like Army and FSU...thanks for those.

In the NFL, I have a situation where a team has a sequence of 3 games that results in a very good situation.

a)  First game our team wins as a home dog

b)  Second game they lose on the road

c)  Present  game they are a home favorite of more than 2 points,  before game number 15......22-52  ATS

pp:HDW and p:AL and HF and line<-2 and game number<15

Looks good!

Spottie, I got this for if a team played in a bowl game or not the prior season, but could not get the margin or the ats margin in that bowl game  to come up with it.

tpS(game type=BG)=1

This query fits in the case of Army who will be favored in their next two games.

tpS(game type=BG)=1 and game number=1 and site and on:F and onn:F and 0>line>-10

27-43 ATS

That’s a good one.

Taking this further:  I took  out neutral site games.  Top 25 (and rank<=25) are 5-13 ATS and rank= none are 35-51 ATS. 

then I took out teams PRSW<12

Then I searched on:site and found if the on:site was away it was 15-15 in those game so I took that out. 

tpS(game type=BG) = 1 and game number = 1 and site!= neutral and on:F and onn:F and 0 > line > -10 and PRSW<12 and on:site

21-45 ATS

Here's an NFL query that was mentioned in part  before...one reason to put these on here is that our beloved sportsdatabase is no longer available after September 1st and we have it all down in black and white for when September happens so as to have a written record.

Here are the parameters:

1)  Home favorite

2)  Non-Sunday Night game

3)  the roster of games is after the 2002 season

4)  Our team will either be an underdog their next game or their opponent will be a favorite

5)  Our home favorite will be off a loss

6)  Our team won 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 divisional games the previous season (or they didn't win 0 or 6 divisional games)

Here is our query....

season>2002 and 6>tpS(W@DIV, N=6)>0 and week<8 and HF and (n:D or on:F) and snf=0 and p:L and week

By week:

2)  13-44 ATS

3)  22-38 ATS

4)  19-24 ATS

5)  24-33 ATS

6)  19-28 ATS

7)  20-27 ATS

The first two weeks as you've probably noticed are the best, and in those games the underdog won 48.8% of the games straight up with an average line of 5.3, so we're talking about +200 underdogs.

Weeks 4-7 underdogs win straight up 37.7% of the time and the line average moves down to 4.7, so it is not nearly as lethal.

NCAAFB Week 1:

play 1: Kansas State +1.5

Stanford qualifies here as an away favorite fade.  These away teams are 4-7 ats and all favorites in this query are 24-48 ats.

Stanford plays a conference game in week 2 in back to back away games. They play @ USC in week 2.  Massey's website line prediction @USC is Stanford +3.5

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play 2:C.Mich+13

Cent. Mich @ Missouri -13

Missouri's week 2 game is @ Kentucky> Massey site has Missouri +2.5.  given the query below they qualify for a play here as long as they are not <-3.5  favorites in week 2. That gives a nice line cushion.

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query is: week 1 Favorites in this situation are 33-59 ATS 36%

F and week = 1 and n:C and rank = None and n:line>=-3

plays are Kansas State +1.5 and C.Mich +13

@Indigo999

 Thank you so much.  In all football I think I was missing how important these conference games were.  Past seasons do matter so do recent games in the past and future during the season.  

I'm liking Kansas State, hadn't considered Central Michigan.

My week 1s:  1)  Kansas State, Indiana, Oregon State, Army, UTSA, possibly LSU.

That is a nice find with your game 1 query in the NCAA, and like you say, you have lots of cushion for an estimated line change.

I think I have a few solid queries (for all 3 leagues) that should hold a high success rate, and also easy enough to navigate on my own with out the use of the database site.  It just has to play out like the queries show they do.

Indiana could be real good as Iowa plays Iowa State next week in which I will take Iowa.  They play Iowa State very well and I have Iowa state as a fade in certain games this season.

Oregon state looks promising too. Purdue's non conference past season matchups were MAC teams and Vanderbilt with similar lines.  Recent history for Oregon state is strong.

t:team=PUR and F and not C and week<4 and season>2013

Illinois is historically bad and as a favorite early in the season against non conference.  Even straight up is a strong ROI.

t:team = ILL and F and not C and week < 4 and o:division = 1A and line>-10

So far my games are:

Georgia+4.5 

Army +3

C.Mich +13

Kansas St. +1.5

FSU +9.5

looking at Virg Tech +5.5 I would like to see the consensus and line moves on this game.  UNC had some poor performances last season and also so over performances.  Line last season at UNC was UNC-3.5.  

looking at Navy.  They were horrible at the end of last season and Marshall didn't finish strong either. I like Navy as a home dog against this type of opponent.

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Making sure I have this query on here for future reference.

F and week = 1 and n:C and rank = None and n:line>=-3

Where is that site going? I know it said there was a new name , What's it going to be a pay site?

Note: This site will be discontinued as of September 1, 2021.
SDQL3 access will continue with user input data at http://s3.sportsdatabase.com.

Not sure what the new site will be.  Its unclear to me, and why they are doing this is probably about money.  If it is about money why wouldnt they have affiliate links to casinos on their site or find ways to generate more income. 

I saw all that I was just wondering if we were going to be able to use that new site.

@hoody

 feel the same way. 

CFL: keep it simple

AD and day and week<10 Both these results are based on away dogs before week 10.

Saturday (all seasons according to the database site) 49-43 ATS ... 45 overs and 47 unders

any other day but Saturday: 124-80 60.8% ATS.  91 overs and 116 unders.

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AD and day= Saturday and week>12 and playoffs=0

76-52 59.4% 55 overs and 75 unders 42.3%

CFL:18-6 ATS 9 - 15 overs to unders

AD and day!= Sunday and week = 1 and PRSW>3

This omits Ottawa in week 1

In my opinion Ottawa will be much better but it might take a few losses early to get the best lines and the teem also will improve. 

I have some basic high quality easy queries to follow that on a weekly basis should be too difficult to maintain the correct plays with out a lot of research.  When trying to get early of best lines the sooner the plays are on the table the better.

CFL: Home dogs. Thursdays and Sundays are the tops.

HD and day

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Omit the bad days:

HD and day != Friday and day != Wednesday and day != Saturday and day != Monday and day

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weekly on Thursdays only. 28-17 62.2 ATS. o/u slightly favors the overs

HD and day = Thursday and week

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Sunday only.  29-13 69%  19-25 overs to unders

HD and day = Sunday and week

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week 1 is very good at 6-1 for the HD, then it trends even but at week 7 and beyond :37-15 71.2% (adding in the week #1  6-1 ats record, 43-16 ATS)

HD and day != Friday and day != Wednesday and day != Saturday and day != Monday and week>7

Doing all the math:

before  week 10 AD are 124-80 

after week 12 AD are 76-52

=-=-=-=- Total of these 2 

200-132

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57-30 adding this to the AD for a total of 

+200-132 equals

257-162 61.3%

 Most of my books have a -108 line. Assuming this juice for all games means +82 units of profit 

82 units of profit for 419 plays is 19.5% ROI on all bets placed.

CFL Team =Any dog that has won less then 4 games the previous season and after week  1 and less the week  7:

D and PRSW<4 and week<7 and week>1

19-8 ATS 70.4%