Season to date 7-4 ATS
Lions -7 Elks 44
Stamps +3 Alouettes 46
Argos +5 Bombers 42
Riders -14 Redblacks 44
Unders are 7-1 on the season.
Home favorites went 0-3 week 1 and 2-2 week 2.
In past history going back 13 years coming into this season, away dogs.....
week 1 25-12 ATS
week 2 22-14 ATS
week 3 22-18 ATS
week 4 21-12 ATS
Non-divisional away dogs have been 48-32 ATS, and divisional away dogs have been 42-24 ATS the first four weeks.
Teams that have played in at least two playoff games their previous season, in weeks 1-4......Tiger Cats, Bombers, Elks
As...
Home favorites 24-38 ATS
Away favorites 15-18 ATS
Away dogs 30-13 ATS
Home dogs. 8-3 ATS
Teams winning their 5 or less games their previous season, in weeks 1-4.....Redblacks, Argonauts, Lions
As.......
Away dogs 24-11 ATS
Home dogs 11-5 ATS
Home favorites 6-11 ATS
1). Teams that won 5 or less games their prior season in week 3 that have won at least one game have been 6-1 ATS at home.....Argos, Lions
2). Teams that have lost their their first two games and failed to cover each game have been 9-2-1 on the road in game three, 7-5 straight up. This moves to 5-0-1 ATS if their away game is versus a divisional rival.....Elks
3). Week 3 favorites with more wins than their opponent have been 6-10 ATS....Bombers, Sasquatches, Lions, Alouettes (if favored)
week 3 home favorites off a home game and their present opponent is off a road game have only been 2-7 ATS, and 3-9 ATS the first four weeks, 6-6 straight up......Roughriders
Teams with the better defensive points/game on the road before week five have been 16-10 ATS as away dogs..... Redblacks
but only 6-9 ATS as away favorites....Alouettes, Bombers
Before week five, teams that had the better regular season record last year as:
home favorites....32-50 ATS.....Riders
away dogs..........28-13 ATS.....Eskimos
away favorites....20-25 ATS.....Bombers, Alouettes
Thanks for the interesting feedback guys.
Yes, I hope I am wrong too. You can see from my picks that I like playing dogs, but unless I get more than 8 with Edmonton, more than 13 with Ottawa and at least 4 with Calgary I don't think I can take any of those.
I have an initial lean with the Argos and that is about it this week.
UNDERs went 1-9 o/u yesterday in the NFLX, so we are in an UNDER trend in all of football (and favorites are crushing it in MLB), and in the stockmarket they say to not to want to catch a falling knife. I won't be taking any OVERs until there is some semblance of a change in trend.
Here is an interesting angle.
We will compara the two teams playing each other this week using average against the spread results. When there is a negative difference of 6 or more per game.......Elks, Stamps
Edmonton are -16.5/game and the Lions are +8/game....as away dogs in week 3 or 4 those teams have been 16-11 ATS and 7-21 o/u, 8-4 ATS and 3-9 o/u in divisional games.
Calgary is -11.5/game and Montreal is +22/game...home dogs in this situation have been 6-6 ATS, 3-9 o/u.
Teams with an average against the spread average of +7 or more in weeks 3 or 4 (Bombers, Lions, Alouettes, Riders) and eliminating away dogs......those teams have been 6-25 o/u!!
2<week<5 and tA(ats margin)>7 and HF, HD, AF, AD
Teams that have a negative -7 points/game or worse covering average in weeks 3 or 4 have been 20-10 ATS as dogs.....Calgary, Edmonton, (Hamilton if a dog next week), including 9-1-1 ATS as away divisional dogs....Elks.
Away dogs who next week line will be greater than 6 points different from this week's line....i.e., Ottawa will be +10 or more this week and they will be around pik or a small favorite next week versus the Lions.......13-7 ATS.....Redblacks
Home favorites whose line will be at least six points worse their next game.....7-17 ATS.....AGAINST Lions, Riders
week=3 and HF and n:line-line>6
An away dog off a bye while their opponent isn't.....9-5 ATS, 5-9 o/u....Redblacks
AD and rest>12 and o:rest<8
A home favorite who will be playing a divisional rival next....19-41 ATS before week 5....VERSUS Saskatchewan
Thanks Hoodman.
Betregal lines are out...these lines have varied from pinnacle's that are being release basically the day of the game.....last year if I recall correctly the major books started releasing CFL game in advance after 3 or 4 games of the season were completed.
Here is what betregal has.....Indigo's in brackets.
1) Lions -4 (-7) Elks 41' (44)
2) Stamps -1' (+3) Alouettes 45' (46)
3) Argos +6' (+5) Bombers 40' (42)
4) Riders -10' (-14) Redblacks 44' (44)
Lookahead lines has the Stamps as +7' @ the Bombers week 4....home favorites that will be greater than +7 the following game have been 16-45 ATS, 8-24 ATS in non-divisional games.
Non-divisional away dogs of greater than 7 that will be home dogs their next game have been 26-26 ATS, but 18-35 o/u in non-divisional games....Redblacks.
Away dogs that won their previous game as away dogs covering by at least 7 points (Alouettes) have been 24-15 ATS, 16-23 o/u.
Teams that won greater than 11 games last season that have started out the season 0-2, have been 4-2 ATS, 6-0 straight up, winning by an average of 19 points/game.....Stamps, Tiger Cats
Top 3/bottom 3.
1) Bombers
2) Roughriders
3) Alouettes
7) Redblacks
8) Stamps
9) Elks
Away dogs with the calculated line DISADVANTAGE.....Redblacks, Elks, have been 15-9 ATS, and 6-19 o/u in weeks 3 and 4. This has been especially pronounced in week 3 in non-divisional games as those teams have been 6-2 ATS and 1-7 o/u...Redblacks.
Calculated line based on average margin differential for the two teams is Redblacks +12 and Elks +14'
2<week<5 and oA(margin)-tA(margin)+3-line>0 and AD and t:wins<o:wins
Wow man, you are an awesome resource and we are lucky to have you post these insights. I will have to re-read all this great info again during the week and digest it all and add to my decisions. Thank you very much Indigo!!! Hopefully, with your statistical input, I can turn around my season. Either way, you definitely add to the fun of the process.
Cheers 
Sports Interaction has posted their CFL lines....not too different than betregal....BC-5, Calgary -2, Winnipeg -7, Saskatchewan -11'.
I am pretty surprised that Calgary is favored, which is based on the past rather than on present reality. Hoody has said on his thread that fanduel has the Stamps at -7, which for betting purposes I'd love to see.
I make the Alouettes as favorites to win the East. I had concerns about their defense but after watching them and seeing the pedigree of the D-coordinator those concerns are abated. Their receivers are the only weak point on their team. I am predicting that Toronto will be there, as long as Arbuckle is quarterbacking. Bethel-Thompson is not going to win in the CFL. All four of the East teams have good defenses this year, and their divisional games should largely be UNDERs this season.
For Hamilton, their "it factor" that they had in their 15-3 regular season in 2019 is history....the slide and demise of runners-up will be real and painful for them this season. I'll look forward to their game in week four at Montreal....that will tell us how real the Als are, and if Hamilton has a chance to finish over .500 for the season.
Flattery always works on me Spot and SB....lol!
Thanks for the heads up Hoodman...Fanduel on covers has BC at -9, which is about where you and I had it.....they have the Argos at +3 and the Stamps -7.
I'm taking the Alouettes at that line if Mr. Pinnacle and his cronies decide that bookie Mr. Fanduel knows the CFL.
I think despite some positive situations for Edmonton that BC is gonna crush the Elks....I think SirBruce might be onto something and possibly Edmonton fans and also the gambling gods are disgusted with their new name. The Elks might have to burn some incense for awhile to appease whoever.
How do teams that were worse last season than their present opponent (usually favors the previously worse team), but have been better than their opponent present season, before week 10?
This scenario fits the Lions and the Alouettes this week
As home favorites...8-22 ATS.....Lions
As away dogs......16-20 ATS.....Alouettes
PRSW<o:PRSW and AD, HF and t:wins>o:wins and week<10
Teams that were worse last season and have been worse this season?
As home divisional dogs 12-12 ATS, 16-5 OVER.....Argos
PRSW<o:PRSW and HD and t:wins<o:wins and week<10 and DIV
Teams in the second game of a back-to-back, losing the first as an away dog and now a home dog.....14-15 ATS.
If in that away dog loss our team scored 13 or less points, they have been 2-8 ATS, losing the game by an average of almost 11 points/game.....Argos
This game is a classic heart versus head game for me. I like the Argos A LOT....however these historical results do not back my gut feeling on the game.
So, what to do? ....do we follow head or heart?
My perception of reality is that passing the game in a scenario such as this is the best solution for me.
However, your perception of reality will be different than mine, and it will different from the guy sitting next to you, or your brother's. There is no one right way, only the way that seems best for you. Differing opinions are what make a market, whether it be buying stocks, purchasing corn futures, or figuring out who is going to cover a line of a football game.
As Bertrand Russell famously was quoted as saying....
"The problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are so sure of themselves and the wiser man so full of doubts."
There are two teams this week that will be favored their next two games....the Lions and the Alouettes.
Teams in that scenario have hit 57% of their games ATS.
If they are an away dog and favored their next two games they've covered 71% of the time (108-45 ATS), with this dropping to 68% if the team in question has more wins than their present opponent. If the Alouettes are indeed an away dog this week, they will qualify.
n:F and nn:F and AD and nn:playoffs=0
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