Week 3 Indigo lines

One thing I like to do in the morning is check the sites that have lines posted.  Currently the best site for this sportsinteraction.com  The have moved MTL to -2.  

In my opinion MTL is the only side. I hate taking favorites in the CFL but I waited a long time for Calgary to come back to the pack and now is that time.  I haven't fully committed  to anything but even if Calgary is in its 3rd home game.  When I will back Calgary is on the road and if they lose 3 in a row at home would be the spot to do so.  MTL or pass 4 me. 

@spottie2935

 You know Bo levi is hurt more than they think. Probably won't play this week

@freakyfreddies

 Well no but there is a reason for the line move.  Song remains the same, no Calgary for me.  Pass or MTL. 

Thanks for the injury comment FF....that kind of commentary is valuable. 

And I concur with Spottie, the Stamps are untouchable for me as are the Esks.

It's been my experience that with bad teams early on it is better not to try to figure out when they'll get it together.

After game 5 and on the road I'd consider taking a bad team....and for whatever reason bad teams will play better as away dogs than they will at home.  Maybe because at home fans will either boo or be totally lethargic with a bad team.

My first thread I had the Stamps +3 and this year my lines have been predictive  of where the initial line will move to.  Hasn't made me or you any money yet, but hopefully it will for us this season.   

The opening lines this week have the been the most terrible I've ever seen and I doubt the giants of the industry will have them be as bad as Betregal and Fanduel's.

I have modified an angle that I used earlier in this thread...the terrible performing team thread and this contradicts what I said about waiting for bad teams to get it together...it turns out they get it together in weeks 3 or 4.

We take a team that has an average ATS margin per game of -7 or worse and stipulate that they have less wins compared to  their present opponent.

The ATS performance of those teams....

As away dogs......10-1 ATS.........Elks

As home dogs......4-1 ATS, possibly Stampeders if made a dog

As home favorites...6-2-1 ATS....possibly Stampeders

When a over-performing team ATS (Lions, Alouettes) plays an underperforming team in weeks 3/4 (Stamps, Elks), the overperforming team has been 1-8 ATS, losing against the spread by over 11 points/game and losing 6 out of 9 games outright.

tA(ats margin)>7 and t:wins>o:wins and week<10 and 5>week>2 and oA(ats margin)<-7

Thanks for the great insight Indigo 

Thanks for being  a great contributor to the CFL forum Bold.

Bo Levi is out, and that Stampeders' line is gonna move quite a bit and the Als will almost certainly be away favorites, if they weren't going to be anyway. Indigo  would make it Alouettes -4.

The average amount of points scored in a game in the first two weeks is 36 points.  Going back 13 years, the average amount of points scored a CFL game before week 3 has been 53 points.  We can surmise why that has happened...no preseason, covid year long sabbatical, etc.   Historically week 2 has been a week for OVERs, but every game went UNDER, by quite a bit.  That makes me nervous for the UNDERs this week, as when something that normally happens doesn't...it often skips ahead and happens soon afterwards, like in football the next week or two.

It is not so different from the stock market...do we continue with trend or do we expect regression to happen?...there's points to be made for both methods.

Here's a query text for when both teams in combination have averaged at least 8 points less to the totals line season-to-date, which fits every game this week.

tA(ou margin)+oA(ou margin)<-8 and HF, HD and 8>week>2

Here are the results....

As home favorites......12-18 ATS  (-1.07)             18-12 O/U (0.12)

As home dogs............2-14  ATS (-7.84)              11-4-1 O/U (3.69)

The calculated pointspreads for each team based on average point differential are listed below.  I'll give an example for you to follow along.

The Riders have scored 63 points and allowed 37 in their two games, which is a positive +26 (points scored minus points allowed), which equates to positive 13 points/game.

Ottawa in their one game has a positive +4.  We subtract Ottawa's average per game differential from the Riders' to get the Riders as being 9 points/game better based on straight math.  We give an arbitrary 3 points for the Sasquatch's home field to get a line of Saskatchewan -12. 

Right now the line is Sask -10'

Calculated line                 Actual line

1)  Toronto +15               Toronto +7

2)  BC -14.5                     BC-5

3)  Calgary +18.5             Calgary (+4?)

4)  Ottawa +12                 Ottawa +10'

So, is the way to make riches to go out and bet the farm on BC, because the line is around BC -5?   I mean, we're getting 9.5 points of "value",  correct?

We're get a lower indicated line in both the Redblacks and the Edmonton games, but the query we run for that tells us that those teams as away dogs have gone 35-21 ATS in weeks 2, 3 or 4.

In the case of the away favorites that look like steals according to what has transpired so far in the CFL, our query says there's no advantage by fading or going with past results.

Here are the two queries,  giving  three points to the home team.

oA(margin)-tA(margin)+3-line>0 and AD and week<5

oA(margin)-tA(margin)-3-line>0 and HD and week<5

Teams that won 11 or more regular season games their prior season and have lost 2 or or more games in a row have been 26-15 ATS at home....Calgary

Those same teams as away dogs only off two losses have been 15-23 ATS....Tiger Cats are likely to be road dogs next week versus the Als.

p:L and pp:L and PRSW>10 and HF, HD, AF, AD

Ok... this is a head wins over heart decision...the data is overwhelmingly on the side of the Elks and data wins out for this decision.

Many times in life doing the thing that others won't do is a key to success.  Taking ugly dogs is a fact in life if one is to win at sports betting.  And, this pick will look foolish if it loses, but then again all sports betting losers, especially underdog plays look foolish.

Plays:

1)  Elks +4

To make a very general historical early season angle going back 10+ years....Thursday and Saturday away divisional dogs do well and Friday non-divisional away dogs do well.  Yes, Buckwheat, days of the week matter.  Teams that play two clunkers to start the season do well as away dogs in their third game, teams that were playoff teams last year that now have a worse record than their opponent do well as away dogs, teams that were not playoff teams last season do poorly as early season home favorites, etc., etc.  There are many indicators favoring Edmonton and many that say BC will underperform.  That being said, when I watched the Elks play last week, I said to myself there's no way I'm playing them until they get their stuff together......well here we are.

2)  Elks/BC OVER 46'

The trend is definitely UNDER and there was a strong UNDER indicator that I went into earlier in the thread of well performing teams early in the season tend to play UNDERs.  

However when both teams have a net o/u under margin of a lot of points/game for the season as is the case here, the indicators are strongly in favor of an OVER being played.  We missed our OVER week last week as weeks 2 games usually are strongly OVER....there's a lot of pent-up OVER energy that still has to be played out and some offenses are due to explode...this may be the game where it happens for these two teams. 

Play on an away divisional dog that is off a home favorite loss their previous game versus a team off an away dog win

13-4 ATS, 12-5 o/u....average line/total +4.9/50.9, average score 27.4-27.5

AD and p:HFL and DIV and op:ADW

Away divisional dogs in weeks 3/4 that have an average per game against the spread margin of worse than -7 points/game have been 9-1-1 ATS (+9.91)

Average line/total +5.8/53.5, average score 29.6-25.5.....Elks

2<week<5 and tA(ats margin)<-7 and AD and DIV

deleted

week<6 and n:line>=7 and HF, HD, AF, AD  and total<50

Teams have been 4-16 ATS at home before week 6 when they'll be at least 7 point underdogs their next game, when the total is less than 50.....VERSUS Stamps

I love your plays 

ou streak<-1 and total<47 and week<8, over 46 ....Elks BC

That is quite a good angle you've mined there, short and sweet.....it works particularly well on Thursdays and Fridays.

Your commentary on the Argos must be moving the line.....see it is down to +4' at bet365, pointsbet and fanduel.

Speaking of which....

Home non-divisional dogs with a total less than 50, playing a team that was in either two or three playoff games the season prior, before week 12  has been 11-6 ATS and 9-8 straight up

Argos

If we take that above scenario and expand the parameters to:

a)  games before week 18

b) a non-divisional home dog

c)  total of less than or equal to  50

d) our opponent played in at least two playoff games the season prior 

This has been 15-9 ATS and 12-12 straight up.

HD and not DIV and total<=50 and week<18 and opS(playoffs)>1

If our PLAY ON team missed the playoffs their prior season with all of the other parameters listed above, this has been 9-5 ATS and 8-6 straight up

HD and not DIV and total<=50 and week<18 and opS(playoffs)>1 and tpS(playoffs)

If our PLAY ON team has less wins than their opponent this has been 12-4 ATS, 9-7 straight up

Finally all lines have been put out.

Let's compare lines of Indigo (mine in brackets) and Mr. Bookmaker.

BC           -3'    (-7)      Elks           48 (44)

Stamps   +3   (+3)      Alouettes    45' (46)

Argos      +3'   (+5)     Bombers    45' (42)

Riders     -11'  (-14)     Redblacks  46' (44)

The linemaker will often make a line to entice action on one side...he put out BC-5 as an opener wanting BC action and bettors didn't go for it, hammering the Elks down to +3'  Make no mistake, the CFL betting crowd is savvy as evidenced by how late the linemaker is putting out lines.  He's put out NFL lines four months in advance despite the same possible covid issues, and possible quarterback injuries, etc.

And I mentioned  betregal or fanduel or whoever it was putting out a line of Calgary -7 early in the week were clearly deluded and that line of +3 is pretty good, and accurate.

The opener for the Bomber game was +4...that line was not that accurate, but it is an enticement to take the Bombers.  I mean, they are the defending champs right? and just dominated the same team last week.  They are wanting Bombers  action or to use another term, the Bombers are on sale.

The last game should be higher than 11', but given the propensity of large dogs to cover in the CFL, I can understand the line.  Remember, the Redblacks gave up over 400 yards to the Elks when they won their game and their offense only produced in the 200s.

To summarize, books want Bombers and Lions action in this week's games.....that should be fair warning.  Think  we should be doing  as someone who wants to take our money would have us do? 

Phil Ivey, the famous poker player talks about figuring out what an opposing  player wants us to think/do at the table.  You should be doing the same with your bookmaker.  The idea of "value" is a flawed concept in sports betting.  Your store is selling you stuff on sale that is about to spoil or because no one wants to buy that product.  Your bookmaker is no different.

Away non-divisional  teams with 6 or more days rest than their opponent (off a bye) have been 10-1 ATS before week 11 covering by an average of 9.09 points/game.

rest-o:rest>6 and A and not DIV and game number<11

Redblacks

Plays:

1)  Edmonton +4 (played on Wednesday)

2)  Edmonton OVER 46' (played on Wednesday)

3)  Argos +3'

4)  Argos OVER 45'

Nick Arbuckle is starting at qb for the Argos, and he is a stud.  He is young and he may throw the ball to the wrong team some, but the guy could be the best quarterback in the league one day.  There'll be points scored by the Argos is this game and Winnipeg with Zach will have to keep pace.  Quarterbacks have to get you the covers on the road, whereas it is the defense and the running game that get you the money at home.  Obviously in their Grey Cup run and this year so far the Bombers have demonstrated that they are the supreme defenders with the best rushing attack in the league.  

We'll see how they do when they have to pass to keep up.

Adding:

5)  Redblacks/Riders UNDER 46'

There are angles that support the idea that the Redblacks will play well this week.  If that is the case the game will go like it did when they played Edmonton week 1.  Matt Nichols is the worst quarterback in the league by a far margin, and the modus operandi for the Redblacks will be to not make mistakes and try to force the other team into turnovers.  And, maybe it will some of the time this year, but I cannot envision the Sasquatches scoring less than 14 points, which is all I can see Ottawa scoring unless Saskatchewan has a total meltdown.  I'll say the Riders win 24-13, which would get us to the pay window after the game.

Masoli will compete with Nichols,  hehe

As far as your plays I am with you and took Montreal.  MTL has OTT on deck and if MTL tkes care of business this week like they should that leaves another big line on deck for OTT.  Sask is going to beat Ott this week with no problem and the under needs both teams to score.  under 4 me too.

Here is an angle going against the Sasquatches.

The Riders will be playing the Bombers at home their next game...they should be -2ish.  That sets them up for this angle

A home non-divisional favorite who future line is 7 points weaker than their present line who is a favorite   by more than 5.

HF and n:line-line>7 and not DIV and line<-5 and week<9

9-21 ATS (-4.65), 10-21 (-6.94) o/u

Hey indgo, I KNOW RELY ON STATS, TOO BAD THERE ISN'T A FORMULA YOU COULD PUT IN THE MIX FOR GOOD PLAYERS AND BAD PLAYERS. I think BC up and rising will kicked Edmonton ass. If you want to bet who be eating their underwear, unless your still full from the last pair. LOL