Week 3 lines and discussion

Good point that I had not considered.....half of betting is the analysis and the second half is pulling the trigger....second half was not executed.

Good fortune going forward.

CFL staff writers' picks

1)  Montreal 1 out of 6

2)  Winnipeg 5 out of 6

3)  Calgary 6 out of 6

4)  BC 3 out of 6

With 26% of the public taking Montreal, we had a classic case of reverse line movement....for those of you who don't know what this is,....it is when the line moves away from what the majority of bettors are betting, theoretically called smart money.....or it could be called big money as well.  In the case of the Riders, one would assume that since approximately 74% of the public was on them, that if the line were to move it would have gone upwards to -3.5 or -4 instead of going the opposite way.

We have another case of reverse line movement in the Hamilton/Winnipeg game as the line has moved down despite the higher percentage of bettors being on the Blue Bombers.

Is this relevant?...is reverse line movement/smart money a real thing?  In the CFL it is, because up until this season, bookmakers were not putting a line out until the very last minute, which means they have paid the price in the past for being lazy, not keeping up to date with the latest information, and/or not putting out sharp lines.  Perhaps their best linemakers go on vacation in the dog days of the American summer, who knows?  Whenever a book is offering late lines or low limits it means they either have gotten burned and/or possibly they can't be bothered.  Now that Canada has a burgeoning market of single game  sports bettors, the competition for Canadian money among books located in Canada will force bookmakers to be a lot more bothered about the CFL than it has been in the past.

It is also looking likely that the media in Canada is no better at picking winners than the American media...this is a very underrated way to handicap....look at what someone who has no prowess in picking winners picks and look to fade the majority of their opinions....you will win more than you will lose.

From this week on, I am going to keep track of how those writers do when they have a majority of 5 or 6 out of six on one team, obviously for our purpose I will keep track of the spread records going against their picks, though of course they are picking those games to win straight up.  This week, they've started out with a loss as they backed  the Riders in our weekend's first game.

Another relevant angle for this week.

Play a week 3 or 4 away dog with zero wins facing an opponent with at least one win.....11-4-1 ATS (+3.2) , 2-14 o/u (-8.4)......Elks

AD and t:wins=0 and o:wins>0 and 5>week>2

Adding:

3)  Edmonton +8'

4)  Elks/Stamps UNDER 49'

5)  Lions/Argos UNDER 49'

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1)  Hamilton +5, two units

2)  Hamilton OVER 42'

WTF???? There is no TOR-WPG game this year.  WPG is AT TOR on July 4th.

This query looks pretty solid and it supports the HAM play this week:

D and n:F and on:line > -4.2 and (n:line < -5.2 or on:line > 5.2)

ATS:  96-51-1 (5.1, 65.3%)

I took HAM +5/-109 for one unit.  Heritage adjusted the vigorish from -108 to -109, just a one-cent move.  They usually adjust the NFL vigorish by 5 cents at a time.

Adding:

6)  Toronto +5

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3)  Edmonton +8'

4)  Elks/Stamps UNDER 49'

5)  Lions/Argos UNDER 49'

1)  Hamilton +5, two units

2)  Hamilton OVER 42'

Money coming in on the Bombers as people are lining up to take the champs versus a winless foe.  Fridays have been kind to non-divisional away dogs for the past few years....we'll see if the "masses are asses" tonight or if the ass is me.

Adding:

7)  Blue Jays -140

8)  Phillies -135

Terrible weekend going 2-5 on CFL picks on a unit basis....in the KOC CFL contest I am 14-7...I have changed some bets as I've gone through the week to my detriment  In my posts here I am 9-11 for the season, which is just not acceptable.