Week 3 lines and discussion

Less than optimal week going 3-4, 7-6 for the season.

              Indigo lines 

Montreal       +2'  Saskatchewan 49

Winnipeg      -5   Hamilton         44

Calgary       -11  Edmonton       51

B. Columbia -3   Toronto          51

No one team stands out to start the season....Montreal and Hamilton are better than their record says they are and we'll find out within the next couple of weeks whether the Lions are real this year, or just in ascending mode.

Will Montreal bite the bullet and cut Vernon Adams and go with Harris as their quarterback?.....I would, but I doubt the Alouettes will do so.....teams generally move slowly, too slowly in making a decision like that.

I differentiate a lot on how the Alouettes should be ranked compared to Hoody's rankings.....of course there will be a difference of opinion in certain cases, and a not the same perception  should be welcomed.  I don't think I'll be interested in the Alouettes if they come a favorite versus the Roughriders.

At the Indigo lines I lean towards the Alouettes and the Tiger Cats and OVER in the Lions/Argos game.

I seldom post in the CFL forum with good reason.  I think I was wrong in about 7 of my last 8 picks, and I know the names of virtually nobody, so don't have too much faith in this CFL query with a sample size of only 16 games:

week = 3 and p:points > 39.5

O/U:   4-12-0 (-6.4, 25.0%)

So this week's TOR-BC game might go Under, but I9 knows infinitely more about the CFL (including the new rules) than I do.

Late find:  adding "and HF" smashes it down to 3-3, so the Over is certainly live.

Good luck, everybody.

After 2 weeks, road teams are 6-2 ATS and total unders are 5-3 ATS.  Deja vu?

Ja, the more things change, the more they stay the same 3P.  In the past, the first four weeks or so is like that....although home non-divisional dogs in the past have done well at this time.....we have the first such game this week with the Alouettes versus the Riders.

Here are the openers listed on covers.....as we've seen, these lines probably change more than any other sports code out there that offers betting lines, so by game time things could probably be much different than what I'm listing right now.  Vegas' lines have moved towards mine when there's been a big difference between Vegas' and Indigo's, so based on that we might see the line move up in the Calgary game to north of -10.   All but the very earliest bettors got crushed last week with the Winnipeg line dropping from -7.5 to -1/pik versus the Redblacks.

Indigo's on left, Vegas' on right.

Montreal       +2'  Saskatchewan 49                   +2'         44'

Winnipeg      -5   Hamilton         44                    -5'         42'

Calgary       -11  Edmonton       51                     -8'         49'

B. Columbia -3   Toronto          51                     -3'         47'

Bet365 hasn't put their lines out yet....early leans Hamilton, Montreal, Montreal OVER.

Vegas is asking for Riders and Toronto money, in which case it usually is best to do the opposite of what they want.

Looks good DB.....when I modified your query somewhat all indicators stayed solidly on the UNDER and actually showed a fade of BC.

Looked at sportsinteraction.ca and they had the exact lines as covers' lines (with the exception of a point difference in the Bombers/Cats total), as of early evening east coast time for Canada....things are looking up for the CFL as it is now relevant enough to have lines up when they should be, and not 24 hours prior to the game as was the case last season, in a similar manner to the WNBA.

Power rankings put up by the CFL.ca website,....typically one looks to back bottom 3 teams especially off a loss, or to fade top three teams typically off a win.  Hamilton has gone from second to 7th in two weeks....they have double Grey Cup revenge versus the Bombers this week.

1)  Bombers

2)  Riders

3)  Argos

4)  Stamps

5)  Lions

6)  Redblacks

7)  Tiger-Cats

8)  Alouettes

9)  Elks

Here is an Under query for the TOR-WPG game that looks strong, but only temporarily:

HF and p:dpa + pp:dps < -19.2 and op:points + opo:points > 53.5

O/U:  4-19-0 (-6.7, 17.4%)

Adding the low total virtually kills it:

"and total < 48.2"  O/U:   0-1-0

HFs with low totals tend to go Over:

HF and 40.2 < total < 46.7   O/U:   35-24-2

Good luck trying to grab a winner from that, I9.

Thanks for your research,.....much appreciated.

I am making two bigger plays...95% of my plays are one unit plays,....I am doubling my risk on two teams.

1)  Alouettes +135, one unit, Alouettes +2.5 one unit

2)  Tiger Cats +5, two units

Here is some research...

a)  Teams off a previous season Grey Cup win winning at least 10 games in their regular season, where they played two playoff games exactly have been 5-15 ATS as home non-divisional favorites in the first eleven games of the season, and 2-8 ATS in the first four weeks of the season....versus Bombers

PRSW>10 and HF and week<11 and tpS(playoffs)=2 and tpS(playoffs@L)=0 and division!=o:division

b)  Non-divisional away dogs on Friday before week 11 have been 45-14 ATS,......if our away dog will be  favorites their next game this moves to 25-4 ATS......Hamilton plays at home to Edmonton the following week......Tiger Cats

AD and week<11 and day=Friday and division!=o:division and n:F

c)  Non-divisional away favorites before week 5 have been 10-25 ATS, 1-5 ATS on Thursdays....versus Riders

AF and division!=o:division and week<5

@Indigo999

Looks good, mostly.

I am leery of the MTL pick because of the small line.  Adding to the c) query "and line > -4.2" 9-11 ATS, "and line < -4.2" 1-14 ATS.  It's mostly beating up on weak teams.  If you are correct in your assessment that MTL is better than their record, than MTL could still qualify.  I am incapable of making that judgment.

Maybe you can use next week's projected lines to further bolster or cast doubt on that particular play.

I also bet one-unit plays most of the time.  This year's NBA playoffs were an exception.  I was 1-1 on one-unit plays and 3-4 on half-unit plays.

Here is another query that is relevant in the Als/Riders game....

A Thursday night home dog with the lesser winning percentage off an away loss versus an opponent off a home win......9-3 ATS (+6.0), 7-5 straight up (+0.1), and 10-1-1 o/u (+10.6)

day=Thursday and HD and tA(W)

I bought out and then re-bought in in the Als game with a better betting line.

Plays:

1)  Alouettes +3, one unit, Alouettes +145

2)  Tiger-Cats +5, two units

3)  Als/Riders OVER 45'

Good; you found more support for MTL and that Over looks enticing.

a)  Home divisional favorites before week 11 on Saturday with the better than or equal winning percentage to their opponent.....

10-16 ATS (-0.2), 17-9 straight up (+6.4), 10-16 o/u (-1.3).........Stampeders

HF and day=Saturday and week<11 and division!=o:division and tA(W)>=oA(W)

b)  Home non-divisional favorites before week 11 on Saturday with the better than or equal winning percentage to their opponent.....

20-18 ATS, 22-16 o/u......Lions

c)  Home favorites before week 5 off a bye.....

0-4 ATS (-8.4), 3-1 straight up (-1.5) .....Lions

HF and rest>11 and week<5

d)  Home non-divisional favorites before week 11 that missed the playoffs their previous season versus a team that made that playoffs the previous season....

15-29 ATS (-2.8), 24-20 SU (+1.5), 18-26 o/u (-0.5)......Lions

HF and week<11 and tpS(playoffs)=0 and opS(playoffs)>0

In query text

division=o:division denotes a divisional game

division!=o:division denotes a non-divisional game

In the post above in letter "a" the query text is incorrect..............it should read division=o:division (not division!=o:division)....however, the stats for the  query are correct.

a)  Home divisional favorites before week 11 on Saturday with the better than or equal winning percentage to their opponent.....

 10-16 ATS (-0.2), 17-9 straight up (+6.4), 10-16 o/u (-1.3).........Stampeders

HF and day=Saturday and week<11 and division=o:division and tA(W)>=oA(W)

b)  Home non-divisional favorites before week 11  with the better than or equal winning percentage to their opponent.....

52-73 ATS (+0.6), 92-34 (+7.2), 57-70 o/u (+0.1)

HF and week<11 and division!=o:division and tA(W)>=oA(W)

on Saturday 20-18 ATS (+4.8), 32-6 (+12.1), 22-16 o/u (+2.8)

HF and week<11 and division!=o:division and tA(W)>=oA(W) and day=Saturday

d)  Home non-divisional favorites before week 11 that missed the playoffs their previous season versus a team that made that playoffs the previous season....

15-29 ATS (-2.8), 24-20 SU (+1.5), 18-26 o/u (-0.5)......Lions

HF and week<11 and tpS(playoffs)=0 and opS(playoffs)>0

if non-divisional game

HF and week<11 and tpS(playoffs)=0 and opS(playoffs)>0 and division!=o:division

10-15 ATS (-0.7), 16-9 (+3.8), 11-14 o/u (+2.5)

Here is another one that I find pretty interesting.

In the NFL and MLB teams that outperform their scoring margin the season prior tend to regress the folllowing season.  This year there are two teams in the CFL that finished way above a 500 winning percentage with a scoring differential that was indicative of about a 500 team, the Roughriders and the Argonauts.

The Argos were 9-5 last season, but were outscored by 9 points.  The Riders were 9-5 but outscored their opponents by only 6 points.

These teams, especially very early on as home favorites have historically been very poor at home.

The query text for this is....

tpS(margin)<10 and week<5 and PRSW>=9 and HF

This has been 2-15 ATS.....the Riders won in this situation game 1 versus the Tiger Cats, and the Argos lost ATS versus the Alouettes game 1.  Those teams in road games have not been either good or bad.

The Riders will be home favorites next week versus the Alouettes and almost certainly the Argos will be home dogs versus the Bombers where home dogs in this situation have been 20-14 ATS, 11-6 ATS in non-division games.

I have bought out of my Alouettes double play and the Alouettes total.

I found some contrary angles for this situation...and also with the Alouettes top two receivers out and their quarterback out, I am off of the game.

Home dogs week 3 of teams that played in one playoff game the season prior have been 0-4 ATS, 0-4 straight up, losing by an average of 17 points/game.....Alouettes.

Home favorites that played in only one playoff game the season prior have been 16-27 ATS before week 5, 5-16 ATS as home favorites in divisional games......Stampeders

My one play so far....

1)  Tiger Cats +5, two units

AD and day = Friday and week<9 and division!=o:division and n:F

I have the only favorite winning and covering this week = Sask.  just my opinion. 

Here is an angle that works in all codes of football, and to a lesser extent in NHL hockey and basketball.

From a metaphysical standpoint, time is not linear, but sages have often been quoted as saying in essence that what happens in the past will happen in the future and what transpires in the future affects the past.  

An away dog (CFL) that will be a dog next week and whose present opponent will be a favorite has been 75-111 ATS (-5.5, 40.3%), 28-160 straight up (-13.4, 14.9%).

AD and n:playoffs=0 and n:D and on:F

Edmonton fits these parameters this week as they will be a dog at Hamilton next week, whereas Calgary will be a favorite their next game at home to Edmonton.

An away dog that will either be a favorite their next game and/or their opponent will be a dog has been 276-174-8 ATS (+2.3, 61.3%) 191-261-4 straight up (-2.9, 42.3%) 

AD and n:playoffs=0 and (n:D or on:F)

Tiger Cats (they will be favored next week versus Edmonton)

The Argos/Lions game it is not a definite of which angle they will fall under as it is debatable whether the Lions will be a dog or a favorite next week at Ottawa, and is probably largely predicated on the Lions' performance this week at home versus the Argonauts. 

Here is a very good angle, which is similar to the previous post's angles.

The premise that what happens in the future affects the past is still part of this present angle.

We take an away dog whose  line their next game will be stronger than their present opponent's next game line.....

That gives us 205-109 ATS, a 65.3% covering rate.

n:playoffs=0 and n:line<on:line and AD

If our game in question is a game number 1-4, this moves to 62-21 ATS, 74.7%.......

n:playoffs=0 and AD and n:line<on:line and week<5

Adding to those parameters, if our game is a non-divisional game, this moves to 33-10 ATS, 76.7%......

n:playoffs=0 and AD n:line<on:lne and week<5 and  division!=o:division 

If our game is on a Friday, this moves to 15-1 ATS.....

n:playoffs=0 and AD and  n:line<on:line and division!=o:division and week<5 and day=Friday

The Tiger Cats will be at least a 7 point favorite to the Elks at home their next game, whereas the Bombers will be around a 3 point away favorite at Toronto.

This is another interesting bit of research.....since 2007 non-divisional away dogs divided by division in the first four weeks of the season....

East    28-29 ATS (-2.19, 49.1%), 13-44 straight up (-8.6, 22.8%), 22-36 o/u (-0.76)

West  25-8 ATS (+3.61, 75.8%), 19-13 straight up (-0.76, 59.4%), 16-17 o/u (1.94)

AD and week<5 and division and division!=o:division

Now, the East is stronger top to bottom than it has been in quite a few years, but so far they haven't shown it....we'll see if some regression takes place soon and we'll see some good East performances on the road against the West.

In the database history, the against-the-spread covering percentage for away dogs have been almost equal for both divisions after week four, though the average away dog line for the East has been +7.4 and +4.6 for the West.  The East Divison non-divisional away dog record so far has been 2-1 ATS, with Ottawa and Montreal covering and Hamilton getting blasted by Saskatchewan.

West non-divisional away dogs have gone 1-0  SUATS with the Riders getting the straight up win versus the Tiger-Cats.

As of Thursday morning north american time....here is a comparison of Indigo, Vegas opener, and where the lines are now.

                Indigo                                            Vegas openers                        Vegas 

                                                                                                            Thursday morning 

Montreal       +2'  Saskatchewan 49                   +2'         44'                         +2'    46

Winnipeg      -5   Hamilton         44                    -5'         42'                          -5     42'             

Calgary       -11  Edmonton       51                     -8'         49'                          -8'    49

B. Columbia -3   Toronto          51                     -3'         47'                           -5    49'

Wouldn't be surprising to see the Saturday game totals move up higher closer to game time.

Lotta love on the Lions....home favorites off a bye who won their previous game at home have only been 3-8 ATS, 6-5 straight up before week 11.  Teams off a bye as home favorites before week five have been 0-4 ATS...the biggest win in those four games was four points.

KOC betting percentages....

Montreal 26%          OVER 52%

Winnipeg 58%         OVER 63%

Calgary 63%           OVER 59%

BC        69%           OVER 55%

Plays:

1)  Tiger Cats +5, two units

2)  Bombers OVER 42' 

Indigo week 4 lines

Ottawa   pik  BC          47

Hamiton -8   Elks         44

Riders    -7   Alouettes 44

Argos     +2' Bombers 48

Montreal demolishes the Riders.....Fajardo is the antithesis of Trevor Harris....Harris always throws with anticipation before the receiver makes his break, whereas Fajardo is always a second late and his default is to run the ball.  Smart coordinators now have concentrated on secondary rushers to keep him from picking up first downs with his legs.

Montreal's very young skill guys, the returners and wide receivers looked pretty great.  Montreal doesn't necessarily have to throw the ball down the field with what they have, as they have players that can make guys miss.  Things are looking up for them....they could win the division if Vernon Adams doesn't muck it up for them.  I would cut him and go with Harris,....Harris' performance today might just have Wally Pipped Adams right out of Montreal.

Montreal victory validates odd line movement.  Suspicious that recent lines dropped for Saskatchewan and Winnipeg despite high betting percentages and injury reports.  In football, injuries usually matter less than in basketball because of depth in talent.