week 6

Question

20-2 STD &#x2B;17.8 unitswith Montreal &#x2B;6 and Montreal UNDER 45- pending from week 5.Estimated lines.  I certainly don&#x27;t make a study of this like Hoody does,....I&#x27;ll put out my estimated lines as a fun thing and as I&#x27;ve mentioned, I don&#x27;t make my plays based on line differences of mine versus the bookmaker&#x27;s.  If YOU DO make plays based on what the line is, check out Hoody&#x27;s thread for something calculated with a mathematical basis to it.Home team   estimated line       Away team    Estimated totalEdmonton       -11                       Winnipeg          55Calgary            -4-                       BC                    52I&#x27;ll wait for the finale between Mon/Tor for the remaining two games.First impressions, my database has indicators for the Bombers....they will not be easy for me to put my money on.There are indicators going against both Calgary and BC.There are indicators favoring Toronto, which are stronger if they were to lose tomorrow against the Als.  There are indicators going against the Redblacks.If Montreal were to win tomorrow, there are indicators to play on Sask if they are getting points @Montreal, which if the Als were to win, I&#x27;d estimate the line to be Montreal -3/-3-

Indigo999 · Answer

20-2 STD &#x2B;17.8 unitswith Montreal &#x2B;6 and Montreal UNDER 45- pending from week 5.Estimated lines.  I certainly don&#x27;t make a study of this like Hoody does,....I&#x27;ll put out my estimated lines as a fun thing and as I&#x27;ve mentioned, I don&#x27;t make my plays based on line differences of mine versus the bookmaker&#x27;s.  If YOU DO make plays based on what the line is, check out Hoody&#x27;s thread for something calculated with a mathematical basis to it.Home team   estimated line       Away team    Estimated totalEdmonton       -11                       Winnipeg          55Calgary            -4-                       BC                    52I&#x27;ll wait for the finale between Mon/Tor for the remaining two games.First impressions, my database has indicators for the Bombers....they will not be easy for me to put my money on.There are indicators going against both Calgary and BC.There are indicators favoring Toronto, which are stronger if they were to lose tomorrow against the Als.  There are indicators going against the Redblacks.If Montreal were to win tomorrow, there are indicators to play on Sask if they are getting points @Montreal, which if the Als were to win, I&#x27;d estimate the line to be Montreal -3/-3-

AussieDownUnder · Answer

This is one of the best runs I have seen across any sport on covers.. 20-2

Keep up the great work Indigo and solid capping buddy

If your line is right in the Eskimos/Bombers game, I would lean the Bombers as well as road dogs of +10 do ok on the road avenging a home loss but like you said, its hard to back them because they just don't compete well and offense looks terrible.

spottie2935 · Answer

20-2

spottie2935 · Answer

Bombers are 5-7 when getting greater than 10 points and also 1-4 ATS last 5 + 10.5 or more.

The thing I don't like about Edmonton and we saw this last week. No lead is safe with that D. On the other hand the Esks offense cost them last weeks game. They are too talented not to move the ball that was the shocking thing.

Peg had decent stats moving the bs between the 20's before last week. It will be inconsistant again here but they will have some success.

Indigo999 · Answer

Goodonya Mates....waiting with anticipation for tomorrow's game and the new lines,...then we'll get our collective genius minds together to uncover this week's "queries of the century".

I'm a bit worried whether I can actually pick a good percentage of over/unders by doing detective work....it won't be the same as just blindly taking every under that the book may throw at us, as for my money the trend has changed.

I am a bit sad about that....

I suppose the books are not that sympathetic though.

Indigo999 · Answer

As far as the Bombers go, I am pleased that there is a question of who is gonna start at qb. Willy hasn't gotten his team in the endzone and backups have proven they can get it done in the CFL. The second string guy looked fine to me against Calgary. It's not like either of them will be facing the 1985 Bears defense.

(I'm trying to talk myself into playing the Bombers.)

"What do you say Mister Bookmaker, got a good price for me?"

Could be a futile exercise, we'll see.

spottie2935 · Answer

I have had moderate to good success in the recent past taking unders when the line creeps at or above 58. And of course a low out put of total points like in Hamiltons second game was 28-3. Since I am challenged at Sdql do a query of how teams do on the total after scoring 25 points or less with atleast 2 consecutive unders then the same for every 5 points

So atleast 2 unders and the games total scoring output was 25 or less. 30 or less 35 or less and finally 40 of less. I bet you a good % of those games were over.

The high end of the query I use an output of 65 70 or 80 or more and the total has to be atleast 56 because if the line is less there is still value to that over. There also has to be 2 or 3 consecutive overs by one team in the matchup. I will look to site an example.

spottie2935 · Answer

https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/cfl/teams/pastresults/2012/team243.html

Here in this example it started in week 2 for Calgary.

week 2 51.5 36-39
week 3 55.5 32-33 another over
week 4 the total drops to 52 so no under value the score was41-38 (OT)
week 5 and week 6 the total jumps to 58 and 59 and you have your unders!

hope that helps

freakyfreddies · Answer

FYI - Matt Nichols will go under centre for his first start of 2016 on &#xD;&#xA;Thursday night in Edmonton, where he and the Bombers look to get their &#xD;&#xA;season on track against the Eskimos following a 1-4 start.

spottie2935 · Answer

The funny thing is the two first option in the Peg offense are 5&#x27;7" targets. That&#x27;s why they move the ball decently well.  In the red zone or green zone or what ever, that&#x27;s when you need bigger targets. Maybe the QB switch will establish new chemistry with the big guys.  That is what they need.

spottie2935 · Answer

Darvin Adams 2 td&#x27;s Jace Davis 1 td Rb Andrew Harris 0 tds

spottie2935 · Answer

Random fact Montreal has ONE first a Half TD in their 3 games played.  I would think that with Glenn this will be better.

drivetime · Answer

I am also looking hard into Winnipeg for Thursday night.  FWIW, my numbers made the Eskimos 8 point home favorites, but this will be an interesting game for bookmakers to line because of the Matt Nichols decision.  Good luck this week.  Stay hot!

Indigo999 · Answer

Matt Nichols?.....liked what I saw from him in Winnipeg's last game. Maybe he'll avoid giving the game to the other team as Mr. Willy decided to do last game. Come on, we couldn't really back a team with a qb named Willy anyway could we?

I saw somewhere that there is a mandate that EVERY starting qb in the league must get hurt at least one time so that the backups can play.

hoody · Answer

So far for those two games I have Edm -8.5 (42) and Cal -5  (45)the other two about this time tuesday

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Some lines are out for Week #6 already.And your very close to the money Indigo..Bombers &#x2B;10 @ Eskimos Lions &#x2B;5.5 @ Stampeders

spottie2935 · Answer

Total is 54 in a Winnipeg game .  I just find it funny but if you bet the under that can go up in flames quickly as well.

Indigo999 · Answer

Early money on the Blue Bombers,....down to +9.

Not what I wanted Mr. Bookmaker (stomping my feet).

Leans to Calgary, BBs.

Loss by Toronto tonight will set up Argos and Sasquatches as at least leans for next week.

Indigo999 · Answer

Thanks everyone for contributing!

We can't be right every time (can we?), but we're stronger and more intelligent as an entity combining forces than being an island.

The books get their information together, we can too.

As always use what everyone has gathered and make your own determination what is important and useful, and what isn't.

AussieDownUnder · Answer

Sportsbet are still showing &#x2B;10 for the Bombers next week mate.

Indigo999 · Answer

Thanks for the heads up OzMan.As Eddie would say, "Locking it in, Winnipeg &#x2B;10"First play week six.....1)  Winnipeg &#x2B;10

AussieDownUnder · Answer

HAHA Eddie McGuire does my head in... liking Bombers as well but I gotta say you got bigger b@lls then me mate taking them but hopefully Nichols can help them out against his old team..

Indigo999 · Answer

STD: 20-4, this week 3-2...(went 3-5 in the contest)

I have been very fortunate this season. Got to experience a bad loss by a bad team tonight. What can separate a very good season from a bad or mediocre season is how the chips fall in the "either way" games. The Als coulda/woulda/shoulda covered, but I've been lucky all-in-all this year.

1) Blue Bombers +10

2) Calgary -5- (think they get revenge for game 1 disaster)

3) Calgary UNDER 49 (two very good defenses)

Of the three I like the Peggers the worst, but it is the correct play.

Estimated lines of the other two games.

Ottawa -5 Toronto 53 with Ricky Ray playing, -11 if not

Montreal -3- Sask 54

Some notes.....Teams are 16-7 @Home revenging a divisional away favorite loss (Calgary), winning their games by an average of 11 points/game. These same teams are 7-0 ATS in the first 8 weeks of the season.

An away divisional dog >500 winning percentage playing a foe that is >500 is 46-40 ATS and 34-55 UNDER, 8-8 ATS and 6-10 UNDER if game takes place before week 9. BC and UNDER.

Teams are 1-9 ATS at home versus divisional rival if they lost at home their previous game despite winning at half time (versus Eskimos).

spottie2935 · Answer

Until the Esks solve their issues at these prices fade away! It happens a lot one team just cant adjust to their off season transactions.

A good team with a good coach and Defense can cover the bigger lines. The Esks have a rookie head coach and bottom 3 Defense. you already like the Peg BB and so do I.

Calg -5 I hate to keep riding this horse, but honestly they look this good again. Offensively a litle bit erratic, but solid enough and good D. I am still having problems with Jennings at QB for the Lions.

good thread and a nice way to start the new week

freakyfreddies · Answer

I&#x27;m a B.C.Lions fan and I hate Jennings, was screaming at the TV the first half to pull that behind, Than Wally told Lulay to put the helmet on, when Jennings saw that he had a one hell of a half. Was it luck or is he finally showing he can be a key starter, Calgary yes a revenge factor but they are a weaker team this year without Cornish. Sorry but I have to go with Lions to cover by 5.

week 6

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