Week 7 Indigo

16-18 ATS, 3-2 ATS week 6.

Hamilton/Ottawa showed why they have had a very difficult time this season.  Hamilton tried to give the game away, but Ottawa refused to take it.  Late fourth quarter.....Evans fumble for an easy touchdown for Ottawa, then Ottawa gives up a HUGE special teams return and then on 2nd and 3 with a chance to ice the game Ottawa doesn't convert.....just a comedy of errors...in winning time you try to ice the game rather than not make a mistake when you have the ball.

It'll probably take Ottawa a couple of more years to figure it out, but LaPolice is never gonna elevate Ottawa into a winning program.  Hamilton?...I like their head coach, but their quarterback has been less than bad and should be benched for the backup Matt Schiltz and I'd say their offensive coordinator should go too.

We're seeing signs out of Edmonton that they could be a decent team next year....they got rid of a guy that kept throwing the ball to the wrong team which Hamilton will do probably later rather than sooner.  Edmonton's defense has gone from terrible to not very good,....I mentioned earlier, I'll be interested in them on the road as dogs and avoid them at home.  That being said, it might take Winnipeg the first half to wake up against the Elks next week coming off a very tough game versus the Stamps, while playing the Stamps their next game as well.

Scoring is way up from last year,,,....the difference is this year are there are many more special teams plays, turnovers are producing points this season as opposed to last season, and there is some regression happening to a historic low scoring season last year.  We're up to over 51 points/game, as it had been prior to the covid thingy for many years.  Bookmakers are still putting totals out in the mid-40s and we as bettors and me more specifically should be taking advantage of the too-low totals.

Remember, Indigo is not trying to predict what Vegas will put out as a betting line....so far this season when my lines have differed from Vegas', the betting public the majority of the time has bet the game towards my lines.

Average results of West teams playing East teams so far this season....West at home by 14 points/game and on the road by 3 points/game.

The CFL.ca staff writer's consensus picks went 0-2 ATS this week (at least 5 out of 6 writers on one side), bringing their season record to 2-7 ATS since I started tracking it in week 3.....that is something I will start paying more attention to.

           Indigo week 7 lines

Ottawa           pik  Montreal 51

BC                 -9   Hamilton 51

Edmonton      +9  Winnipeg 49

Saskatchewan -9  Toronto   49

Correction, my record is 17-19 ATS season to date.

I look forward to your musings over the week.  Thank you.

No matter what picks I make, I am always backing I9 (just not all his "egghead" picks...lol - said with love). 

Cheers. 

Nice little bounceback in week #6.  Congratulations.

Good luck this week.

Thanks guys (is "egghead" a term of endearment?).

Got a nice PM from a silent viewer....someone whom we do a PM exchange every once in a great while.

We were talking about fading as a way of handicapping ....especially when things are not going well, it is another tool to use.

I've mentioned that the CFL writers are now 2-7 ATS on their consensus plays since week 3....in all likelihood they would have had a consensus opinion on Winnipeg in their first two games of the season versus Ottawa, but I can't be sure because I wasn't paying attention to their picks in those first two weeks.

I think I mentioned earlier somewhere on covers that on another betting site last season a guy, possibly an egghead type, was posting a list of percentage of staffwriters' picks from three NYC newsletters.  When there was a consensus of all three newspapers of being on one team at over 60% or some percentage like that, it called for a fade of that team.

For much of the NFL season fading that consensus team for that week was hitting over 65%, so this is not a regional Canadian thing where there is some kind Bermuda triangle sitting at the CFL headquarters  that warps people's CFL perceptions, this is endemic to football in general.  The staff writers at ESPN were classic fades last season in the NCAA....they were seriously very bad, like under 40%.   We are talking about people that are paid to write entertaining literature,....who more than likely don't make any money betting sports.

It might be worth subscribing to three NYC newspapers this NFL season...haha, and at least seriously thinking of not going against the fade and possibly playing those fade picks.

And this is the NFL we're talking about here, which, when you talk to guys that make a living in the betting industry, say it can't be beaten.

So, we contemplate that and will probably make that a serious part of what we do going into the future....thankful here to have had a winning week and I'm not talking about fading myself.....LOL!

I'm guessing they'll all be on the Bombers and the Lions this week......we'll see.

Angles....

a)  A divisional home dog off an away dog win....8-18-1 ATS (-3.5), 8-19 straight up (-7.0)....if in their previous game they won as a greater than 6 point away dog this moves to 1-12-1 (-9.7), 1-13 straight up (-12.4)                                                        Elks

b)  Friday away non-divisional dogs before week 12.....57-29-1 ATS (+3.9), 35-50-2 straight up (-1.6), average line/total  +5.51/51.61....average score 24.3-25.9                    Argonauts

c)  Thursday divisional dogs before week 12.....21-9 ATS (+5.2), 11-18-1 straight up (-0.9) 10-19-1 o/u (-1.6).........average line/total +6.27/52.12.......average score.....24.8-25.9...                           Alouettes if they come a dog

d)  Away dogs before week 15 that won their previous game against the same opponent they're playing this week....16-12 ATS (-0.6), 13-16 straight up (-4.7)                                                              average line/total +4.19/51.26.................average score.....23.8-28.6               Argos

Angles....

e)  Before week 12, an away dog that has lost their past two road games....153-117-4 ATS.....84-60 ATS if they are +6 or less, though only 6-6 ATS if off a home loss and now playing a divisional opponent.....Alouettes

f)  An away dog whose next line will be stronger than their present opponent's next game line will be....210-110-5 ATS....Tiger Cats

I talked about this angle last week....Tiger Cats play at home to Montreal next week and BC goes on the road to the Sasquatches where they will be underdogs to the Riders.  Cats will be slight favorites over the Alouettes.

If we put in a couple  more parameters,......that our away dog is playing a non-division opponent and is off a home win this moves to 43-26-1 ATS,.....however this seems to have worked much less successfully on Thursdays going only 15-14 ATS

Also, correction on angle B above....I posted the angle which was correct, but I listed a team, the Argos, as qualifying this week, but they don't play on Friday night...here is the angle again.

b)  Friday away non-divisional dogs before week 12.....57-29-1 ATS (+3.9), 35-50-2 straight up (-1.6), average line/total  +5.51/51.61....average score 24.3-25.9...........Argonauts

There are no qualifying teams this week.....a shame.

g)  A divisional home team between weeks 4-12 that has at least 4 more losses than wins.....21-12 ATS, 16-18 straight up.....Redblacks

h)  A divisional home team before week 12 off at least 3 straight losses....21-10-1 (+4.5).....Redblacks....17-15 straight up.

i). A home team that will be a dog their next two games....71-127-2 (-4.1, 36.9%) ATS.....Redblacks

j)  An away favorite whose present line will be at least 6 points stronger than their next week line........10-23 ATS (-5.9)....Winnipeg goes to Calgary next week and could be up to a 3 point away dog.....away favorites who will be dogs their next game before week 12 have been 16-30 ATS, 10-16 ATS (-1.8), 12-14 straight up (+2) and 9-16-1 o/u (-4.1) if playing a divisional rival.

Here's one of the craziest ones.....now I've got no idea why some of these have been so one sided ok?....I just throw these out to the world and let you deal with the implications of it, and some of you will need a rational explanation of why it works or disregard it.....no worries Mate....some of you may also need to know the inner workings of your cell phone or you won't use it, but I'd say the vast majority of you would say "I don't need to know why" and you'd buy and use your Iphone.  The astrophysicists say that what we see is only 2% of the universe, so there's a lot out there that we have no explanation for....we're watching the CFL afterall where we are resigned to the fact that the unexpected can and  will happen, often at the most inopportune times.

k)  A non-divisional away dog before week 12 when their  next game is on Thursday....40-16-1 ATS.....awwww!...no qualifying plays this week....we've got it written down in living color so we can reference this later.....Montreal qualifies in week 8.

And kudos to Pirates Gold who wins the first ever Indigo "Balls To The Walls" first weekly prize for a post that was both witty last week, with winning picks....he easily shrugged off the dreaded first time poster's hex to go 3-1 ATS, though he did go on and on how the Elks had no chance.....lol.

He goes into the draw to win some beautiful beachfront property owned by my friend who is also a Nigerian Prince.  This friend also offers people a chance to make an easy 36 million....all one has to do is to give him your name and your bank account number.

l)  week 5-11....a favorite that will be a dog their next game 41-72-2 ATS.....18-31 ATS if non-divisional game....Lions, 23-41-2 in divisional games....Bombers, Redblacks (if favored this week versus the Alouettes).  If our favorite will be a dog their next two games this moves to 18-41 ATS....applicable to the Redblacks if they a home favorites this week versus the Alouettes.

m)  A favorite weeks 6-9 that will either be a dog their next game or their opponent will be a favorite......16-38 ATS (-5.9), 30-24 straight up (-0.9), average line/total.......-4.99 52.27, average score.......25.1-26.1

Ottawa (if favorite) BC and Saskatchewan all quality......according to Hoody's numbers, the Bombers would be a slight favorite versus the Stamps in Calgary....however that is debatable with their previous game being the Bombers at -4 on their home field and Calgary having a few chances to win the game.

Correction to "m" in the post above....that query was for teams that have had two or less losses which was accurate at 16-38 ATS....BC, Saskatchewan and I would say Winnipeg quallify.

Ottawa if favored would not....teams with more than 2 losses who will either be a dog or their opponent will be favored have been 24-27 ATS.

Here is the query relevant to BC, Saskatchewan and Winnipeg

F and 10>week>5 and (n:D or on:F) and t:losses<=2

F and 10>week>5 and (n:D or on:F) and t:losses<=2

and line > -2.7   ATS:  7-6 (-1.0, 53.8%)

and line < -2.7   ATS:  9-32 (-7.5, 22.0%)  z = 3.44

Eliminating the likely competitive games make the bigger favorites look even more vulnerable.

n)  Weeks 4-11....an away non-divisional dog whose previous week's line was at least 8 points stronger than their this week's line....23-12-2 ATS (+1.2), 12-25 straight up (-6.1), 14-23 o/u (-3.3), average line/total.......+7.2 52.22.......average score 21.4-27.5.......Tiger Cats

o)  Weeks 4-14....an away team off a loss as a home favorite of over 7 points....9-3 ATS (+8.4), 8-4 straight up (+6.1), 3-9 o/u (-8.4)...average line/total.....+1.38 52.42.....average score 25.5-18.5..........Alouettes

Yes, that's a good find.

I am not predicting what the line will be.

Bad teams in the past have not done well off a close home loss.

Our query text asks...."how do away teams  do  that have 3 or more  losses more than wins off a home loss of less than 7 points?"

In week <12.....2-5 ATS (-13.6), 0-7 straight up (-20.4), 7-0 o/u (+13.9)...

If we change the parameters to week<15 this moves to 5-9 ATS, (-8.9), 1-13 straight up (-16.4), 9-5 o/u (+5.1)....average line/total +7.57/51.14....average score...19.9-36.4

week<15 and p:HL and A and t:wins-t:losses<-2 and division=o:division and p:margin>-7

q)  A week 4-14 away non-divisional dog who made the playoffs last season versus a team that missed the playoffs last season.....18-6 ATS (+7.7) 13-11 straight up (+2.9)

If this away dog is from the Eastern Division this has been 9-5 ATS (+5.7), 6-8 straight up (0.6), 9-5 o/u (+1.6)

Average line/total +5.07/51.04.....average score....26.6-25.9

Tiger Cats

3<week<15 and AD and division!=o:division and tpS(playoffs)>0 and opS(playoffs)=0 

r)  A divisional home dog weeks 4-14 that missed the playoffs last season, playing a team that made the playoffs.......Elks, possibly Redblacks

Home divisional dogs of <=7.......11-21 ATS......Redblacks?

Home divisional dogs of >7.........6-2 ATS.........I would guesstimate that the Elks will be a greater than 7 point dogs.

3<week<15 and HD and division=o:division and tpS(playoffs)=0 and opS(playoffs)>0 and line>7

Fajardo blew it l.w with pick six, much to the delight or Argos backers....cementing his status as mediocre--I'm backing Alouettes vs. hapless RedBlacks, totals may be something to look at, will see how lines shake out closer to game time, and injuries.

s)  A non-divisional away dog who won at home last week breaking at least a three game losing streak...3-8 ATS (-5.9), 1-10 straight up (-11.7), 3-8 o/u (-9.6).....average line/total......+5.82/51.5.......average score......15.1-26.8

Tiger Cats

In the case of a divisional game this has been 5-1 ATS, hence the importance for data type analysis to differentiate the two.

AD and 15>week>3 and division!=o:division and p:streak<-2 and p:HW

A lot of conflicting data this week

t)  I misspoke from a previous post....I shared this crazy angle earlier and there IS a qualifier....the Tiger Cats

An away non-divisional dog before week 15 that plays their next game on Thursday.....40-16 ATS,....interesting that this is even better if the qualifying team is from the East....24-9 ATS, 12-21 straight up.

In the case of divisional away dogs this has been 15-9 ATS which the Alouettes fall under....however away divisional favorites have been only 5-10 ATS....the linemaker could conceivably make the Alouettes either favorites or dogs this week versus the Redblacks. 

n:day=Thursday and AD and division!=o:division and week<15 and division=East

Now, this season I really hate the Tiger Cats, so this is a classic left brain versus right brain dilemma....it will be difficult to pull the trigger on this one.  I would say that if the consensus CFL staff writers like the Lions, as I am predicting they will, that I may take the Cats if I get more than 7 points.

I mentioned a few weeks ago that playing on the bottom three power ranked teams might be a good idea.  I went into the week-by-week power rankings by the CFL and checked.

        As away dogs                                      As home dogs

off a win     off a loss                            off a win   off a loss

1-0 ATS      5-1 ATS                                              2-2 ATS

Overall, away dogs in the bottom three have been 6-1 ATS, 7-2 ATS if we include a 1-1 week one result.

This week the bottom three are Ottawa, Montreal, Hamilton, all playing on the road

For the top three ranked teams, how have they done as favorites?...the first two weeks in their game ones they went 0-3 ATS (Toronto had a bye week 1 and failed to cover as a home favorite week 2).

  as home favs                                              as away favs

off a win     off a loss                            off a win         off a loss

2-1 ATS                                               3-2 ATS

So, overall, top three ranked home favorites so far this season have been 2-4 ATS. 

This week the top three ranked teams are Calgary (bye week), BC and Winnipeg

Thanks for the shout out.  I was going gloat but thought it would be pretentious of me.  Also, I am a coward who doesn't post in his own thread so there is that too.

"egghead" is definitely terms of endearment.  Reminds me of the episode where Al Bundy goes back to a class reunion and all the eggheads were filthy rich and surrounded by trophy wives....  So heck, I wouldn't mind being an "egghead" myself.

Love all the angles you provide each week.  Hopefully, you continue in your profitability and don't turn into a Bundy just reliving his glory days...  Cheers.