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Week 7, relative strengths, discussion

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Posted: #26
Fan
 
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Posted: #27
So Fab, you are staying away from this game.....

you are NOT considering taking the Argos are you???!!!!...
 
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Posted: #28
I would be shocked and amazed if the fabulous Fab took the opposing Argos.
 
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Posted: #29
First i luv my team but i love the green backs alot more so i want to see where this line goes before i make my final play on this game.
 
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Posted: #30
CALGARY is 2-0 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons

Calgary heading into the by will play the full 60 minutes, starters are rested after last week.

Ricky Ray cant throw the ball further than 15 yards down field....

I like the stamps to roll again
 
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Posted: #31
Good to see you flowerpower......come around any time.

We try to keep it positive and those that don't get the bad karma boomerang.


 
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Posted: #32
Oughta be an interesting game Powerz.....Calgary has been a steamroller again this season.
 
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Posted: #33
Home non-divisional dogs have been 63-42, 60% (+3.86) in my database history.....Argos

They're:

53-38 ATS if dogs of <7

26-16 ATS if <week 8  (22-19 straight up)

Eastern Division teams home dogs week<8    

20-13 ATS, 17-15 straight up.

Argos have been 6-4 ATS and straight up in this situation.

AND, saving the best for last....what Western Division team has the worst record as an away non-divisional favorite in the first 8 weeks of the season.....drum roll, trumpets playing, etc., etc.

The Calgary Stampeders  have been 2-9 ATS, 3-7-1 straight up......

0-2 ATS, 0-1-1 straight up so far this season.

Beware of the Ricky Argos manana.

If the pitiful Hamilton Tiger Cats can cover against the Eskimos as a home dog, it is quite possible the Argos can/will.

Me?  Lean to the Argos and OVER.  

My money is staying in my wallet and my wallet is staying in my pocket.






 
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Posted: #34
Just be aware that Eastern home division dogs in week 7 have been 0-4 ATS, losing by 12+ points/game.
 
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Posted: #35
Some big moves now.....

Argos to 6 from opening of 4.

Ottawa started at -3 went down to pick and now up to -3.5

Spottie must have influenced the big money and Hamilton has gone form 14 to 10.

BC has gone from -5.5 to -7

None except the BC line do I agree with.....there is either an influential Mark Lawrence/Dr. Bob type with a large clientele that has put out their plays (most likely) or a syndicate with deep pockets moving large money.

These people put their pants on the same as you and I.  I've not seen large moves win a winning percentage of the time in the CFL.  Perhaps long-time watchers of the CFL would tell me otherwise.  It is too crazy of a league with the last minutes lasting what seems like hours........no  lead is safe.

And in the case of Hamilton, I am not seeing the rationale,.....my betting is 80% numbers and 20% right brained feeling.  The 20% has to be on board with the numbers, or I'm off the play, which is the case with Hamilton this week.  In the NFL and NCAA teams off a HUGE loss will rebound,........when wagering I ask myself, "would I be pissed off at myself if I placed this wager and lost?"   I'd be pissed  at myself if I took the Tiger Cats and they didn't cover.

My 20% feeling part is wholly on board with Argos tonight, it is just the 80% numbers part didn't come to the party.  I couldn't find much in the database to support the Argos.  Do I think they will play well and I cover?....yeah I do, but the data  is not that strong, so I'm passing. 
 
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Posted: #36
As I've mentioned earlier I am taking the Bombers plus the points over the Redblacks

The query listed below is 23-3 ATS, 14-0 ATS and 8-6 straight up before week 9.

AD and day = Friday and not DIV and n:F and playoffs = 0 and line>1.5 and week
 
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Posted: #37
Spottie must have influenced the big money and Hamilton has gone form 14 to 10.

Count me out on the Ticats vs. the West then the line moved from 14 points  reduced to 10?  In your theory Hamilton is the play right?  The line is regressing!?  Anyways what is happening is the lines are pushing higher in the Ticats games and when they play an East team that isn't very good and they are getting big points that is the time to play them.  It is best to wait. 

Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

As I've mentioned earlier I am taking the Bombers plus the points over the Redblacks

The query listed below is 23-3 ATS, 14-0 ATS and 8-6 straight up before week 9.

AD and day = Friday and not DIV and n:F and playoffs = 0 and line>1.5 and week


Winnipeg !
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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Posted: #39
Come on Spottie, we all know you are the brains behind  the Billy Walters empire .

When looking for a big line mover....you are the number one suspect...........

.
 
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Posted: #40
haha so far this year I have very little energy, but I know it is on the way.

It is a matter of time
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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Posted: #41
These for the Edmonton/Hamilton game

Unbeaten home favorites 12-27 ATS, 6-15 non-divisional

Eskimos

Winless away dogs 26-13 ATS, 15-8-1 non-divisional

Tiger Cats

When a winless away dog plays an unbeaten team....14-3 ATS, 4-13 O/U,  8-2 ATS, 2-8 O/U  non-divisional games.

Tiger Cats

Perhaps the big line movers are using queries.




 
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Posted: #42
Winnipeg +3  Win

STD:  14-8-1

That made it interesting, that is for sure.  I look for Ottawa to put some good games together now, but now favor Montreal to win the East....they've been the best team in the East, and have by far the best defense.
 
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Winnipeg +3  Win

STD:  14-8-1

That made it interesting, that is for sure.  I look for Ottawa to put some good games together now, but now favor Montreal to win the East....they've been the best team in the East, and have by far the best defense.

Nice win and I agree on the Alouettes they finished off last year very strong and it is following through.  Play on the Alouettes all year and make money 
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
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