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Week 7, relative strengths, discussion

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Captain
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Posted: #1

STD: 13-8-1

Evidently the Tiger Cats have 6 secondary players out.....they might start looking in the local honky-tonks and bars for players.  What is the linemaker gonna do with this team?  Do fans in Canada wear bags over their heads like they do in the States?

Home favorites went 4-0 straight up and 3-1 ATS this week....not so common in the CFL.

These lines are my estimation of the strengths between the two teams, NOT what Vegas would put out.

We've had some surprises every week in what exactly the linemaker is thinking.

1)  BC               -7    Sask           55.5

2)  Redblacks   -3    Bombers     57

3)  Argos          +5   Stamps        56

4)  Eskimos     -18   Tiger Cats   56

Teams that score 20 points in their game as a non-division home underdogs have been 49-13 ATS and 39-23 OVER in the CFL regular season.  Think the Argonauts can score >19 against the Stamps?

Teams off a bye (rest>9) have been 11-10 ATS and 14-7 OVER as home non-divisional favorites, if they have a worse record than their opponent this moves to 4-1 ATS and 5-0 OVER.....Redblacks, IF THEY ARE A HOME FAVORITE.

The Eskimos have been outplaying the Tiger Cats by 25 points/game on the field so far this year.  CPR was performed on Hamilton team after the game and we'll see if they continue to put a team on the field the rest of the season.




 
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Posted: #2

"Teams that score  at least 20 points in their game as a non-division home underdogs have been 49-13 ATS."

 
MVP
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Posted: #3
F and date >20170401 

after an 8-0 start for the dogs

This is the first year in a long while that there is less parody in the CFL.  Hamilton, Saskatchewan, Argo's.  

Calgary still tops followed closely by 

BC

Edmonton

next level below are

Winnipeg 

Montreal I think they can possibly win the East 

Argo's its gonna be a race for the East division

Ottawa.  I look forward to this weeks game vs Winnipeg.  Peg is gonna show them some CFL football 

Saskatchewan might leap up and overtake Ottawa by years end.

Hamilton what a mess.


Play of the week for me in Winnipeg.  They will win the game 
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
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Posted: #4
LInes are out.....mine in brackets.

Toronto        +4.5    (+5)   Calgary           54.5   (56)

Redblacks   -3        (-3)   Winnipeg          58      (57)

Edmonton   -14     (-18)  Tiger Cats         55.5   (56)

BC              -5.5      (-7)   Saskatchewan 56.5   (55.5)

One one huge difference is the Tiger Cats getting only(?) 14.  They are untouchable at that price.  We'll ponder these and see what the database has to say.

Back later.


 
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Posted: #5
Non-divisional home dogs off an away dog loss playing a team off a home favorite win have been 1-6 ATS in the first 8 weeks, losing by an average of 9.71 points/game.......Argos

Below is an example of how using queries and our thinking works.

A team off of a bye and a home favorite has been 32-25 ATS

rest>10 and HF 

If that team has a worse record than their opponent it moves to 14-2 ATS and 10-5-1 OVER.

rest>10 and HF   and tA(W)<oA(W)

If the same situation our team is playing a non-divisional foe it goes to 3-1 ATS and 4-0 OVER.

rest>10 and HF   and tA(W)<oA(W) and not DIV













 
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Posted: #6
Redblacks.
 
Captain
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Posted: #7
A divisional home favorite off an away dog loss playing a team off a home favorite win.....Lions

HF and DIV and p:ADL and op:HFW

8-16 ATS   10-14 O/U

That being said, I don't like the Sasquatches, as last week  they were in a situation where data said they should have lost, at least against the spread, and BC was in a situation where they should have at least covered against the Eskimos.  When we have that situation teams tend to play to their expected level of the previous week.  In other words, BC should overachieve  this week and the Riders should underachieve.  Personally I'm not bucking Wally off a loss.  

Riders in my opinion are not quite ready for prime time.



Heart and mind are divergent this week....I would have liked the Bombers, Argos and BC this week, but the data does not support my point of views.  

May pass this week.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #8
What is your best for this week. Im doing a 10 point teaser I only need 3 more games to close it.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
Indigo. Sorry if you've been asked this in the past but how do you run these queries? Ive heard of these super computers and programs that punch out data but I'm really curious how it works. Also how there formulas come together and what the values represent. If your not comfortable answering totally cool. I'm really just curious. To your heart vs head picks... I've learned the last little while not to fade Calgary. They just seem to be the exception when it comes to these stats. Lastly... do you dabble in NFL as well? Thanks for your thoughts in advance
 
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Posted: #10
Hi Shooter, good to see you.  

1)  Go to the killersports or sportsdatabase websites,...on the query links part, click on "CFL".

2)  You will be taken to a page with a white text box, under the "CFL Sport Query Date Language Access".

3)  You could take one of my queries I've listed and copy and paste it into the query line.

4)  Hit  the "SDQL" box, and you will get the results.

On the front page of killersports, under "Trend Mart", if you look down you will see :

NFL  

Friday Report-  Sign up
SDQL Manual (pdf)

Click on "SDQL Manual"

which will give you many of the abbreviations used to input different types of data.

Most of the data abbreviations are all the same for all of the football codes........NCAAFB, NFL and CFL.

And yes, I do do the NFL and NCAA codes.  I have an article in the NFL forum where I use some queries to predict the NFL and some futures tendencies.  For week one so far I have the Chargers, Saints and Jaguars.


 
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Posted: #11
PrimeTime I don't have any bests for the week,...congrats on your teaser so far.

There are many in the King of Covers  CFL contest that are ahead of me.


0)  Click on "Contests" at the top of this page
1)  Click on King of Covers Contest 
2)  Find the CFL Contest Page, click on that  
3)  Find and click "overall leaderboard" you will see the overall standings and the top guys
4)  As the week goes on their plays are listed....the number 3 guy has all of his plays already up
5)  Click on "pending"  under the status column of the leaderboard, which will display the picks for the week.

People who wish to tail can do that and perhaps some of them will want to become friends with you and you can write personally to them and ask for their opinions.
 
Captain
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Posted: #12
In week one, the anti-consensus plays, those with less than 45% of the public on them in the King of Covers Contest, went 4-0 ATS.

Since week one, the anti-consensus plays have been 4-10 ATS.  

This also was the case in the NFL last year, the public won.

The CFL and NFL normally are anti-consensus leagues, and there are handicappers that do nothing but find either a local or internet contest and fade the public's biggest opinions, usually very successfully.

Those anti-consensus types have been getting killed after week 1 so far this season.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Thanks Indigo for the info. I'll have some fun playing around with it myself. I do appreciate it. I'll also make sure to pop over to the NFL board to read your write ups. Thanks again.
 
Captain
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Posted: #14
Thanks Shooter, gratitude is an attitude that will get you far in life.....best of fortune with it.

I've decided to make one play based on the query below....I am going against an equally very good query that takes Ottawa.  

This probably will be my only play for the week.

Play:

1)  Winnipeg +3

AD and day = Friday and playoffs = 0 and not DIV and n:F

Take an away dog on a Friday in a non-divisional game....our play on team will be a favorite their next game (n:F).   Fridays are good away dog days in the CFL.  

26-5 ATS.

The day of the week does matter.  

If our play ON team will be an away favorite this moves to 4-0 ATS.  

Teams that will be away favorites are quality teams with no huge game looming...time is not linear in the quantum universe.

Western Division teams in this situation have been 14-2 ATS beating the pointspread by over 10 points/game.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
Thank Indigo999  For all of your info!!  Winnipeg +3 or more looks very good to me.. I appreciate all of your info!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

PrimeTime I don't have any bests for the week,...congrats on your teaser so far.There are many in the King of Covers  CFL contest that are ahead of me.0)  Click on "Contests" at the top of this page1)  Click on King of Covers Contest 2)  Find the CFL Contest Page, click on that  3)  Find and click "overall leaderboard" you will see the overall standings and the top guys4)  As the week goes on their plays are listed....the number 3 guy has all of his plays already up5)  Click on "pending"  under the status column of the leaderboard, which will display the picks for the week.People who wish to tail can do that and perhaps some of them will want to become friends with you and you can write personally to them and ask for their opinions.

Thanks my brother
 
Captain
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Posted: #17
Good to hear from you guys....Primetime and hwgfb.....hope you guys kill it this week.
 
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Posted: #18
GL this week Indigo..

I know your not really into player injuries and so on but Dressler is potentially out for the Bombers this week. Thats a massive loss from their receiving core. But they still have some good receivers, just wanted to point out he is likely to miss this game. 
 
Captain
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Posted: #19
Thanks for the info Aussie, and I agree he's a big loss.....

seems like it is like throwing the ball in the ocean for you this year, you'll be buying that tropical island soon I reckon.  Keep up the great work.
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by Indigo999:

Thanks for the info Aussie, and I agree he's a big loss.....

seems like it is like throwing the ball in the ocean for you this year, you'll be buying that tropical island soon I reckon.  Keep up the great work.

Thanks for the kind words Indigo.. I enjoy your threads because they are informative and you use covers for what it is meant for, discussion and sports information. Not many on covers use it like this anymore. 

Here is a query that you may like. I took out weeks 1 and 18+ because for me, the first week is always tough for any team and anything can happen and then weeks 17+ anything can happen with players being rested and so on..

I really like taking teams that have the bye week next week. Took Als in week 6 because of that and they almost pulled off the upset win. This week is the Stampeders and they have week 8 off.

AF and week + 2 = n:week and week>=2 and week<=17
 
Captain
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Posted: #21
Nice Aussie,....and any ol' reason is a good reason to take the Stamps lately......(waiting for trusty Fab to chime in).

I'll probably watch this one, as my gut feeling is that Toronto gives them a game, not that my gut has been that reliable recently.  I have an inclination that Toronto is gonna score some points on Calgary.

Best to you in the upcoming games
 
Captain
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Posted: #22
Here's another query supporting the Peggers.

p:margin at the half<0 and p:HFW and AD  and day

9-1 ATS....though the covering margin is not that impressive (+2.80).

Teams coming from behind to win a game they should win typically perform well the next week.

Here's another one that would favor the Tiger Cats (please noooooo!!!) and the Bombers.

HF and n:day = Thursday and playoffs = 0

You'll see similar results if you run this query in the NFL database (add "and week<11")

Why does this work?.....no idea.
 
MVP
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Posted: #23
p:ats margin >20    and p:points >=42 



and more recently:

p:ats margin >20    and p:points >=42 and date>20120908

if you add the total that is greater than 50 ( meaning the books feel no dominate defense is playing, and or no team is having trouble scoring)

p:ats margin >20    and p:points >=42 and total >=50 and date >=20101001

the favorite only has won 8 times in 21 attempts

Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
MVP
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Posted: #24
if you raise the # to 50 points scored in their previous game 

p:ats margin >20    and p:points >=50 and total >=50 and date >=20101001


favorite has only one game and 0-4 L4
Nothing is ever in the bank until it is in the bank
 
 
MVP
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Posted: #25
Be cafeful with the stamps this week they always play close games when they play in the big smoke But what do i know iam just a reg stamps 
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