week 8 Indigo

20-21 ATS season-to-date, 3-2 for the week.

CFL staff writer's consensus is 4-8 ATS for the season since week 3 when tracking started.....they did go 2-1 this week, taking the Argos, Bombers and Lions.

Argos game today is prime example of why scoring is back to normal....special teams touchdowns and turnover scores, where last season there were hardly any.

                      Indigo lines

1)  Hamilton         -3' Montreal           50

2)  Saskatchewan -3 British Columbia 50

if Fajardo plays.......+3 if he doesn't start

3)  Calgary          -3 Winnipeg            51

4)  Toronto          -6 Ottawa               53

angles.....

a)  An away divisional dog who will be at least a four point favorite their next game....35-24 ATS (+1.1, 59.3%), 19-39-2 straight up (-3.2).....BC Lions (if they are underdogs),  who will be home to the Elks next week.

b)  A home divisional favorite who will be an underdog next week.....58-87-5 ATS (-2.6, 40%),  92-57-1 straight up (+2.7).......Hamilton who will be at the Argos next week.

HF and n:D and division=o:division and n:playoffs=0

c)  A home divisional favorite with a winning percentage of >500 with the lesser winning percentage than their present opponent....12-9 ATS (+3.2), 16-5 straight up (+6.6).....Stamps and Riders, if they are made home favorites.

d)  A home divisional favorite off an away loss but covered the spread.....15-10 ATS (+7.6), 19-6 straight up (+12.5).....Tiger Cats

e)  A home divisional favorite who opponent is off an away favorite win....4-1 ATS (+7.6) 4-1 SU (+11)...Tiger Cats

f)  A home divisional favorite whose opponent has won their last three road games....6-3 ATS (+3.4), 8-1 SU (+8.8)....Stampeders

g)  Losing away divisional dogs <500 before week 12.....48-33-3 (0.9), 26-58 (-6.3) straight up.....if the line is 6 or less this moves to 22-9-2 ATS....(5.4), 18-15 straight up (1.6)........Alouettes, Redblacks

angles continued.....

h)  Away divisional dogs between weeks 3-12 with a win percentage of <.66 that are <=+6....35-18-2 (+3.9), 28-27 straight up (0.0).....Alouettes, Redblacks

It figures that there are many good angles this week that favor the mighty, mighty Redblacks.....I suppose that it worth noting that the other terrible team in the competition, the Elks have covered this year a few times on the road.

AD and division=o:division and n:playoffs=0 and tA(W)<.66 and 3<week<12 and line<=6

i)  An away divisional dog with the greater winning percentage than their opponent between weeks 3-10 with a winning percentage >60....3-7 ATS (-8.1) 0-10 straight up (-11.2).....Bombers, Lions if made an away dog

AD and division=o:division and tA(W)>oA(W) and 3<week<10 and tA(W)>.6

Bottom 3 power rated teams (cfl.ca) are now 6-1 ATS as away dogs this season....bottom 3 this week are likely to be the Elks, Redblacks and Tiger Cats.  Elks have a bye this week before traveling to BC....Redblacks will be away dogs this week at Hamilton.

m)  Winless away dogs after week 4....3-7 ATS (-10.4), 0-10 straight up (-20.1)......Redblacks

n)  A home favorite before week 15 who's headed into a bye next game.....18-29 ATS (-3.0), 28-18-1 straight up (+2.8), 10-19 ATS (-4.1), 14-14 straight up (-0.4) if favored by 6 or less.....Sasquatches......3-9 ATS if their present game is on Friday

week<15 and HF and n:rest>11 

o)  Away dogs before week 15 that play their next game on Thursday.....56-25 ATS (+1.7), 30-50 straight up (-4.5), 16-9 ATS in-division, 8-16-1 (-5.9) straight up and 10-15 o/u (-0.9)......Montreal, Winnipeg if away dogs 

week<15 and AD and n:day=Thursday

@Indigo999

 here are my lines for week 8 

Ham -1 mtl

ssk -4 b.c

cgy -4 wpg

Tor -2 ott 

Thanks Jets....we'll have to see what the situation is with Saskatchewan and their quarterback injury and their covid issues.....I reckon they won't put out a line on that game until 24 hours before game time.  If Fajardo plays, his mobility is gonna be limited and half of his game is using his legs.

At your lines, I'd take the Argos and the Tiger Cats.  I agree with your Stampeder line, but I think the linemaker will make the line under -3 and maybe even a pik.

 Lines are out.....Indigo on left.....................bookies' on right

1)  Hamilton         -3' Montreal           50..........-3     49'

2)  Saskatchewan -3 British Columbia 50..........+1'   49

if Fajardo plays.......+3 if he doesn't start

3)  Calgary          -3 Winnipeg            51.........-1     46

4)  Toronto          -6 Ottawa               53.........-5    47'   

Plays:

1)  Calgary -1, two units

2)  Toronto/Ottawa OVER 47'

Actually the line went down and I got Calgary at pik for two units, so what I have below are my actual plays

Plays:

1)  Calgary pik, two units

2)  Parlay .5 unit   

  a)  Toronto moneyline

  b)  Toronto  OVER 47'   

  c)  Calgary moneyline

3 legged parlay at +438

@Indigo999

You have cgy -3 i have them at -4 ...its still cgy -1 at my local , I know nothing about the teams and i dont bet games blindly , but in this case am following you on this one...good luck

you took cgy at pk and ml ? what was your ml ? 

@Indigo999

 And you think with my lines i should take ham and tor ? if anything id take the other side of those because of my lines. 

Yes, well divisional away dogs that are below 500 historically have been very good, just not if they haven't won a game as in the case of Ottawa, so the tech angles favor Montreal as does your line.  However, what I saw from Hamilton last week, I was impressed with...they are the two-time East repreentative in the Grey Cup, and as runners-up often do, they have a lot of issues the following season.  Their defense held the most prolific offense in the CFL to 17 points last week on the road, and I think they are a buy in the next few games, though with some very strong tech angles favoring Montreal this week I will pass on that game. 

The Hamilton quarterback has been terrible, but they got a real good offensive mind and past CFL quarterback onboard as a coach after he got dismissed by Montreal a couple of weeks ago, which I think makes their quarterback much better. 

That is the quandary with looking at some other guy's opinion/picks, there is going to be some difference of methodology and opinion between you and me or anyone else you look at.

At the end of the day it's obviously your wallet with your money sitting in it and you'll have to make your  own decision.  Your amount of data that you've been able to test  is still early days for the CFL, so that is another thing that adds to uncertainty.  We have another poster, Hoody, that makes his own lines and bets on games where his lines and the bookmakers' differ in a  similar manner to you.....he hit over 60% last year I believe and he has struggled this season so far, as I have.....things have not gone this year as they have, but perhaps now going forward they will, we'll see.  In my contest picks I am doing well in my sides (15-9), but terrible in totals, so my totals plays I am very much limiting.

Scoring as I've mentioned now is back to pre-covid days, after averaging over 7 points less per game last season than it has over quite a few seasons.  My opinion is that the bookmaker has been slow to catch on to that as the totals were routinely in the low 50s in years past, and they are still not at that level this year so far, despite the average score per game being over 51 points combined.

The opener was Calgary -1, and at bet365 early action was on the Bombers so when I went to bet I had a choice of taking Calgary -1 +100, or -110 at pik, so I took the pik -110.

Calgary is my biggest bet this season.

Here is the difference a line makes.....thought that the Lions would be an away dog this week versus the Riders....by the line it's obvious that the Riders' qb is out for this week's game.

An away dog who will be a favorite of over 4 points their next game has been 55-34 ATS before week 12.

However.....

An away favorite who will be a favorite of over 4 points their next game has been only 45-49 ATS, 16-27-2 ATS in divisional games before week 12.

Saskatchewan is a proud team and probably with Calgary has the biggest home field advantage in the league....if this line gets out of hand and moves to BC being favored by more than 3 I will be on the Roughriders to validate one poster's "injuries make no difference!!" hypothesis.

And, Mr. Pirate what happened last week?.....it looks like you suffered a clear case of "Delayed First Poster's Hex Syndrome. 

When looking it up in my medical dictionary, I see that it is usually not fatal, thank God. 

Make sure you drink lots of fluids and get your proper rest....

I don't like to read long novels....try to make it short and sweet!

Go to the comic book section then and avoid this thread.

@Indigo999

 Absolutely great thought out answer , The line is one thing ,but not always the only thing. The part about me being new to CFL is spot on, my lines would've been much different if i used the standard 3 pts hf , but i changed them to reflect your analysis that one div is 1.4 pts and the other 4.4 pts. 

Look forward to reading what you have to say , am taking cgy myself.

good luck and thank you

@Indigo999

 Yup...  Piratesgold pooped the bed last week big time.  Thanks for pointing that out.  Very humbling yet refreshing since expectations going forward are low.

On the record, I am going with:

Montreal +3

BC -1.5

Winnipeg +1

Toronto -5

Good luck I9 and everyone.  Enjoy your week.

O

Thanks buddy....your picks mirror the CFL staff's picks exactly.....we'll have to keep an eye on you, as you could be a CFL.ca plant.....LOL.

Staff writers' picks are 4-8 ATS when at least 5 out of 6 are on one side....this week they have:

  1)  Hamilton 5 out of 6

  2)  British Columbia 5 out of 6

  3)  Toronto 5 out of 6.

We consider fading their picks......as  is the case in the CFL in general, this has worked best fading home favorites and not as well fading away favorites.

@Indigo999

Same picks exactly?  That doesn't bode well for me then.  I don't even consider paid media personalities on sports, religion, or political issues.  I don't even waste my time reading these presumed experts since it is too much work trying to figure out their bias directing their narrative to get at the truth.  I simply watched the games last weekend and keep myself updated on current influences sprinkled with a little history.   Soooo, you have me worried about my picks now since you say I am aligned with "experts".  Thanks I9.  Not sure why you hate me so much.

LOL.....c'mon man!!

I'd say those experts were watching the same games you were watching.....you could look at it that those experts are due to break out!.....they did go 3-0 straight up (2-1 ATS) last week, so ja we'll look at it as the glass is half full and after an initial V-E-R-Y slow start to the season they have got a little momentum happening.

https://www.cfl.ca/2022/07/26/prediction-time-cfl-ca-writers-week-8-picks-2/

Mr. Pirate.....actually you did take the opposite of the experts by taking the Alouettes, so one of three you are fading the "experts"(?) with the Stamps/Bombers picks evenly distributed.

My bad, just put 18 units on the Alouettes and one unit on your other picks.....wink.

For your interest cody is playing with the riders needs rest after 8 games cause of his knee. Was on radio