week 8 Indigo

Ok, thanks Freddy.

Went back and studied the CFL power rankings....this is interesting.....first off we eliminate games where there was a home dog/away favorite involved, so only when  our underdog is on the road do we think about getting involved.

In the history of the CFL,  home dogs has been a 50-50 proposition....as Spottie pointed out a couple of months ago, home dogs start covering after week 12.  Away dogs, NOT home dogs is where it's at in the CFL.

We look to GO AGAINST top three power ranked teams as home favorites AND we look PLAY ON bottom three teams as away dogs.

The results this season so far?.....9-4 ATS

Week-by-week results....

Week 1

1)  Montreal +3' 27-30 ADW

2)  Edmonton +4 15-59 ADL

Week 2

3)  Calgary +1' 33-30 ADW

4)  Montreal +3 19-20 ADW

Week 3

5)  Edmonton +9 23-30 ADW

6)  Hamilton +5 12-26 ADL

7)  Versus Winnipeg +5 12-26 ADL

Week 4

8)  Edmonton +6' 29-25 ADW

Week 6

9)  Versus Winnipeg +4  19-26 ADL

10) Ottawa +8' 23-25 ADW

11)  Edmonton +9 32-31 ADW

Week 7

12)  Versus BC +8 12-17 ADW

13)  Hamilton +8 12-17 ADW

Week 8

13)  Ottawa +5

Additionally, playing ON top 3 teams as away dogs or GOING AGAINST  bottom three teams as home favorites has gone 4-1 ATS this year. 

Top three this week.....Bombers, Stamps, Lions

Bottom three this week.....Redblacks, Tiger Cats, Elks

Plays:

Adding.....

3)  Montreal +3 1 unit

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2) Parlay, .5 unit,....Toronto ML, Toronto OVER 47', Calgary ML 

1) Calgary 2 units

AGAINST THE SPREAD TRENDS (ATS) Category Record Percent Away Teams 17-10-0 63.0% Home Teams 10-17-0 37.0% Favorites 14-13-0 51.9% Dogs 13-14-0 48.1% Away Favorites 7-3-0 70.0% Away Dogs 10-7-0 58.82% Home Favorites 7-10-0 41.2% Home Dogs 3-7-0 30.0%

Good luck on your pick.  On paper, recent trends favor Montreal +3.5 despite most picks on Hamilton in King of covers contest.  Hamilton is 0-3 ATS at home and 1-5 ATS as favorite.  Whereas Montreal is 3-1 ATS away and 4-2 ATS as dog. 

Thanks  buddy.....I don't really like this pick all that much, but the data is really strong in favor of the Als.