Posted:
#1
Sorry folks...at work and was typing away with a bunch of notes infront of me. Those of you that know my posts know what I meant...just incase here is the my re-write
...........
My last post we watched WVU absolutely destroy the Providence Friars and I am pretty sure we will see a similar situation tonight when Michigan heads to play at Northwestern. These types of plays really focus on fading teams with good SU records that are playing in hostile territory. So far, despite Michigan's 11-7 SU record, they haven't really done anything on the road except beat Clemson (Syracuse was a neutral floor). Clemson actually got off 15 more shots then Michigan in that game and almost erased a 16 point half time deficit before Clemson started fouling late allowing Michigan to seal the deal.
Of Michigans 11 wins this season, we note NC Central, Bryant, Gardner- Webb, S. Carolina Upstate, Concordia and a very mediocre Bowling Green (7-10 SU so far) are amongst the tally. So six relatively unimpressive wins amongst the 11 win count.
NW on the other hand has been really excelling at home averaging 76 points FOR per game, while playing excellent defense allowing only a 61 points AGAINST average. Almost more importnat then 61 points against is that they hold opponents to 41% shooting and just 29% from 3 point land. All this amounting to a 7-1 SU home record this year and an intriguing 10-2 ATS their 12 homers.
Though I value the last 5 game stats as well, history has showed me tat Overtime stats distort future lines. In reality, Northwestern played a draw last time out with Michigan State (I know they lost in OT, but from a handicapping perspective I view it as a tie.) The points against for NW also reflects an extra 8 point from the 5 min OT that should be eliminated from O/U handicapping.
Though NW has a 75 point against AVG the last 5, 3 of them were on the road and 1 was in OT. At home, its pretty hard to ignore the average of 61. Michigan on the road is only averaging 60 points FOR. NW ranks 22nd in the nation with a .397 3-point percentage FOR this season. NW is also eighth nationally with an average of 9.4 made 3-pointers per game (This is tops in the big 10 this season) . NW currently leads the Big Ten (rank ninth in the nation) with an average of 17.9 assists per game. NW sports an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.60 (287 assists, 179 turnovers) the nation's fifth-best team. NW also is ranked 16th nationally with an average of only 11.2 turnovers per game. Just like the WVU game last week....Playing by the numbers, NW should hit their average 75 point FOR tonight against a Michigan D allowing an average 69 points AGAINST on the road (UM allowing almost 50% fg against.) Consider that NW has already scored more the 90 points in a game 5 times this season.
So, When Illinois gets a lead against UM (a team that hasn't played well on the road scoring an average 60 away from UM) ...it will be very very hard for UM to get back into it versus at team that allows only 29% three point shooting. Especially if that teams lead is double figure, a likely possibility with NW juggernaut offense so far this season.
Tonight UM will show the country that it has talent, but that it still needs time to develop. UM has two freshman, a red shirt freshman and a Sophomore in the starting line-up. Though put together an attractive record so far, it truly doesn't reflect a Big 10 caliber strength. NW gets ahead, UM can't answer, and it snowballs out of control.
Takel the NWESTERN -6.5 Good Luck!
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GL tonight
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