Just learned that Wednesday, St.Louis Billiken's #2 scorer was a late pre-game scratch. Unannounced. Not on the common injury reports. Had I known this I would never have bet St.Louis (*BB), or at the very least would have bought it back, which ultimately lost at home to a weaker opponent. Missed a flawless mark due to that...
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Just learned that Wednesday, St.Louis Billiken's #2 scorer was a late pre-game scratch. Unannounced. Not on the common injury reports. Had I known this I would never have bet St.Louis (*BB), or at the very least would have bought it back, which ultimately lost at home to a weaker opponent. Missed a flawless mark due to that...
For those who might've missed my explanation of this new method I am testing/tracking, I am reviewing each team's CONFERENCE sched (after Christmas only) and "hypothesizing" how each of those performances might have resulted in wins or losses if they were played against today's opponent (quality level) This yields a "hypotheical win/loss record" (several close calls either way are discounted) Allowing for a margin of error in my own subjective analysis, I can then assess if the moneyline has good/bad value for a bet (or possibly ATS)
*It is fully understood that upsets can and will occur occasionally, sometimes in spite of overwhelming mismatches. Nevertheless, playing the "value odds" on all games should still result in profit despite those occasional upsets, provided we resist the temptation to bet sides of mediocre value (or worse).
S.Dakota St 1 - 4 Providence 9 - 3 ...good value here triggers my bet: PROV -150 *BEST BET
Memphis 11 - 9 ...not enough value at -3 odds Boise St. 7 - 9
Richmond 1 - 13 IOWA 20 - 0 ....solid ML value! My bet: Iowa -525 *BEST BET
NOTE:I typically avoid risking such high moneylines, but the value here is very positive. For example, Richmond's most recent 7 games (2 losses and 4 very close, all against much weaker opps than Iowa) most likely would have been all LOSSES against a top ten powerhouse team such as IOWA, and Iowa's most recent 7 games likely would have all been easy wins against a weaker opponent like Richmond. (with full understanding that, yes, anything could happen, on any given day)
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Thursday:
For those who might've missed my explanation of this new method I am testing/tracking, I am reviewing each team's CONFERENCE sched (after Christmas only) and "hypothesizing" how each of those performances might have resulted in wins or losses if they were played against today's opponent (quality level) This yields a "hypotheical win/loss record" (several close calls either way are discounted) Allowing for a margin of error in my own subjective analysis, I can then assess if the moneyline has good/bad value for a bet (or possibly ATS)
*It is fully understood that upsets can and will occur occasionally, sometimes in spite of overwhelming mismatches. Nevertheless, playing the "value odds" on all games should still result in profit despite those occasional upsets, provided we resist the temptation to bet sides of mediocre value (or worse).
S.Dakota St 1 - 4 Providence 9 - 3 ...good value here triggers my bet: PROV -150 *BEST BET
Memphis 11 - 9 ...not enough value at -3 odds Boise St. 7 - 9
Richmond 1 - 13 IOWA 20 - 0 ....solid ML value! My bet: Iowa -525 *BEST BET
NOTE:I typically avoid risking such high moneylines, but the value here is very positive. For example, Richmond's most recent 7 games (2 losses and 4 very close, all against much weaker opps than Iowa) most likely would have been all LOSSES against a top ten powerhouse team such as IOWA, and Iowa's most recent 7 games likely would have all been easy wins against a weaker opponent like Richmond. (with full understanding that, yes, anything could happen, on any given day)
Thursday: For those who might've missed my explanation of this new method I am testing/tracking, I am reviewing each team's CONFERENCE sched (after Christmas only) and "hypothesizing" how each of those performances might have resulted in wins or losses if they were played against today's opponent (quality level) This yields a "hypotheical win/loss record" (several close calls either way are discounted) Allowing for a margin of error in my own subjective analysis, I can then assess if the moneyline has good/bad value for a bet (or possibly ATS) *It is fully understood that upsets can and will occur occasionally, sometimes in spite of overwhelming mismatches. Nevertheless, playing the "value odds" on all games should still result in profit despite those occasional upsets, provided we resist the temptation to bet sides of mediocre value (or worse). Thursday, March 17, MENS: Michigan 7 - 10 ...not enough value; Jones??Colo. St. 1 - 8 S.Dakota St 1 - 4Providence 9 - 3 ...good value here triggers my bet: PROV -150 *BEST BET Memphis 11 - 9 ...not enough value at -3 oddsBoise St. 7 - 9 Richmond 1 - 13IOWA 20 - 0 ....solid ML value! My bet: Iowa -525 *BEST BET NOTE: I typically avoid risking such high moneylines, but the value here is very positive.For example, Richmond's most recent 7 games (2 losses and 4 very close, all against much weaker opps than Iowa) most likely would have been all LOSSES against a top ten powerhouse team such as IOWA, and Iowa's most recent 7 games likely would have all been easy wins against a weaker opponent like Richmond. (with full understanding that, yes, anything could happen, on any given day)
I don't mind losses. I make my bets playing the odds, knowing full well that from time to time there will be upsets.
Understood.
But this IOWA loss sucks more than most because of the way it ended.....on an aggregiously bad "non-call" .....very reminiscent of that RAMS/Saints playoff game a couple years ago with the *BLATANT* pass intereference near the goal line not called....would have completely changed the outcome..... Instead Rams moved on.....as does the double-digit underdog Richmond here.
I'm in favor of replay review of more things than currently apply. Like PIs in football....and shooting fouls in basketball.
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Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Thursday: For those who might've missed my explanation of this new method I am testing/tracking, I am reviewing each team's CONFERENCE sched (after Christmas only) and "hypothesizing" how each of those performances might have resulted in wins or losses if they were played against today's opponent (quality level) This yields a "hypotheical win/loss record" (several close calls either way are discounted) Allowing for a margin of error in my own subjective analysis, I can then assess if the moneyline has good/bad value for a bet (or possibly ATS) *It is fully understood that upsets can and will occur occasionally, sometimes in spite of overwhelming mismatches. Nevertheless, playing the "value odds" on all games should still result in profit despite those occasional upsets, provided we resist the temptation to bet sides of mediocre value (or worse). Thursday, March 17, MENS: Michigan 7 - 10 ...not enough value; Jones??Colo. St. 1 - 8 S.Dakota St 1 - 4Providence 9 - 3 ...good value here triggers my bet: PROV -150 *BEST BET Memphis 11 - 9 ...not enough value at -3 oddsBoise St. 7 - 9 Richmond 1 - 13IOWA 20 - 0 ....solid ML value! My bet: Iowa -525 *BEST BET NOTE: I typically avoid risking such high moneylines, but the value here is very positive.For example, Richmond's most recent 7 games (2 losses and 4 very close, all against much weaker opps than Iowa) most likely would have been all LOSSES against a top ten powerhouse team such as IOWA, and Iowa's most recent 7 games likely would have all been easy wins against a weaker opponent like Richmond. (with full understanding that, yes, anything could happen, on any given day)
I don't mind losses. I make my bets playing the odds, knowing full well that from time to time there will be upsets.
Understood.
But this IOWA loss sucks more than most because of the way it ended.....on an aggregiously bad "non-call" .....very reminiscent of that RAMS/Saints playoff game a couple years ago with the *BLATANT* pass intereference near the goal line not called....would have completely changed the outcome..... Instead Rams moved on.....as does the double-digit underdog Richmond here.
I'm in favor of replay review of more things than currently apply. Like PIs in football....and shooting fouls in basketball.
I agree with some late call replays...but the Rams/Saints is actually a bad example, because in the previous Rams drive that resulted in a field goal, a blatent non call against that Saints that showed a Saints players kicking a Rams player in the head would have given the Rams a first and goal at the 2 yard line and a TD would have made the Saints TD irrelevant. I do not like replay, BUT in the last 2 minutes of a game or 1 minute in basketball, I think some calls should be replayed.
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@fubah2
I agree with some late call replays...but the Rams/Saints is actually a bad example, because in the previous Rams drive that resulted in a field goal, a blatent non call against that Saints that showed a Saints players kicking a Rams player in the head would have given the Rams a first and goal at the 2 yard line and a TD would have made the Saints TD irrelevant. I do not like replay, BUT in the last 2 minutes of a game or 1 minute in basketball, I think some calls should be replayed.
Oy! Well, that's going to do it for hoops for me this season. I know a "regression to the mean" and an obvious "correction" when I see one, and there's no getting around it. More losses than wins would continue if I do. So I am exiting hoops. Hate to end it on an awful day of upsets, but no regrets. And it's been fun! I wish you fellas success with your March Madness bets!
" You gotta know when to hold'em, Know when to fold'em, Know when to walk away, And know when to run... "
Oy! Well, that's going to do it for hoops for me this season. I know a "regression to the mean" and an obvious "correction" when I see one, and there's no getting around it. More losses than wins would continue if I do. So I am exiting hoops. Hate to end it on an awful day of upsets, but no regrets. And it's been fun! I wish you fellas success with your March Madness bets!
" You gotta know when to hold'em, Know when to fold'em, Know when to walk away, And know when to run... "
Oy! Well, that's going to do it for hoops for me this season. I know a "regression to the mean" and an obvious "correction" when I see one, and there's no getting around it. More losses than wins would continue if I do. So I am exiting hoops. Hate to end it on an awful day of upsets, but no regrets. And it's been fun!
I wish you fellas success with your March Madness bets!
" You gotta know when to hold'em, Know when to fold'em, Know when to walk away, And know when to run... "
Extending my belated CONGRATULATIONS to the South Carolina women's team and the Kansas men's team for their respective Championship titles!
1
Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:
Oy! Well, that's going to do it for hoops for me this season. I know a "regression to the mean" and an obvious "correction" when I see one, and there's no getting around it. More losses than wins would continue if I do. So I am exiting hoops. Hate to end it on an awful day of upsets, but no regrets. And it's been fun!
I wish you fellas success with your March Madness bets!
" You gotta know when to hold'em, Know when to fold'em, Know when to walk away, And know when to run... "
Yeah, I'll be back for another season later, but I'm having a terrific run with my NFL bets and I wanna complete capping the NFL regular season before plunging into CBK.
Hope you're putting together a nice profit with your college hoops!!
Catchya later!
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Quote Originally Posted by finsterbaby:
Hiya Finster!
Yeah, I'll be back for another season later, but I'm having a terrific run with my NFL bets and I wanna complete capping the NFL regular season before plunging into CBK.
Hope you're putting together a nice profit with your college hoops!!
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YTD MENS: 158 - 100 - 2 91 - 41 - 1 *BEST BETS
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