Greetings fellow bettors!! I finally recovered my Covers info to post on here. Been a longtime member. I find this forum to be very helpful over the years and hold in high regard many posters - Badlands, Macwestie, DonJuan to name a few.
Here are my picks:
1. UCONN -7 - On Kenpom, UCONN has ascended to the top position, clear testament to their elite status. UCONN has dominated this tournament. UCONN meets every eye test - talent, being in a power-6 conference, no major injuries, offense, defense, etc. No mid-major has won a national title in 22+ years of Kenpom. 2014 UCONN "maybe" the only exception (American conference in 2014), but for all intensive purposes, UCONN is synonymous with BIG EAST. 2010 Butler and 2022 UNC are the only school that covered ATS while losing SU. Title winning teams are a combined 20-2 ATS since 2000. SDST has also teetered on edge of losing in this tournament. Easy games vs inferior opponents Charleston and Furman, quality win vs Alabama, and a pair of 1 point wins vs Creighton and FAU. SDST had many extra possessions in those games, which will be hard to come by against long, athletic, physically imposing UCONN bigs. For me, it comes down to trust, and I trust UCONN far more than SDST. Media will write whatever they want to create intrigue, storylines, team of destiny, etc. If UCONN plays the way they have all tournament, they will cover. UCONN has beaten every non Big East team by 10+ points this entire season.
2. TOTAL UNDER 133(I got this earlier today, most books are now at 131-132) - both teams boast defenses inside top 10 in the country. Nerves could be a huge factor. A few bricks and some lockdown defense on both ends could favor the under. I'm willing to bet neither team shoots lights out. Overs are a square play in most title games and this game is no exception. Both teams are elite defensively and total in 130s tell me the only logical wager is UNDER.
3. SD ST TT UNDER 62.5 - my gut tells me UCONN will smother SDST defensively. SDST as a program has never made it this far and the lights may be too bright. UCONN's length, their bigs' ability to control the paint, prevent second chance scoring will also be major factors. SDST will have to shoot well along with UCONN having defensive lapses to jeopardize the under. I'm willing to bet both will not happen.
4. SD ST 1H TT UNDER 28.5 - my basis for taking this is SDST coming out with a lot of nerves early. I can see UCONN also coming out with nerves. SDST has to play at a high level on defense to stay in this game, and I see them doing so early. UCONN is physically imposing and could lock down SDST. I could see an ugly game early (think UCONN/BUTLER 2011). If that occurs (I sure hope so), a dog team total under makes for a beautiful play.
BOL!!
Chalks, Dogs, Overs, Unders, Props....I love 'em all
1
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Greetings fellow bettors!! I finally recovered my Covers info to post on here. Been a longtime member. I find this forum to be very helpful over the years and hold in high regard many posters - Badlands, Macwestie, DonJuan to name a few.
Here are my picks:
1. UCONN -7 - On Kenpom, UCONN has ascended to the top position, clear testament to their elite status. UCONN has dominated this tournament. UCONN meets every eye test - talent, being in a power-6 conference, no major injuries, offense, defense, etc. No mid-major has won a national title in 22+ years of Kenpom. 2014 UCONN "maybe" the only exception (American conference in 2014), but for all intensive purposes, UCONN is synonymous with BIG EAST. 2010 Butler and 2022 UNC are the only school that covered ATS while losing SU. Title winning teams are a combined 20-2 ATS since 2000. SDST has also teetered on edge of losing in this tournament. Easy games vs inferior opponents Charleston and Furman, quality win vs Alabama, and a pair of 1 point wins vs Creighton and FAU. SDST had many extra possessions in those games, which will be hard to come by against long, athletic, physically imposing UCONN bigs. For me, it comes down to trust, and I trust UCONN far more than SDST. Media will write whatever they want to create intrigue, storylines, team of destiny, etc. If UCONN plays the way they have all tournament, they will cover. UCONN has beaten every non Big East team by 10+ points this entire season.
2. TOTAL UNDER 133(I got this earlier today, most books are now at 131-132) - both teams boast defenses inside top 10 in the country. Nerves could be a huge factor. A few bricks and some lockdown defense on both ends could favor the under. I'm willing to bet neither team shoots lights out. Overs are a square play in most title games and this game is no exception. Both teams are elite defensively and total in 130s tell me the only logical wager is UNDER.
3. SD ST TT UNDER 62.5 - my gut tells me UCONN will smother SDST defensively. SDST as a program has never made it this far and the lights may be too bright. UCONN's length, their bigs' ability to control the paint, prevent second chance scoring will also be major factors. SDST will have to shoot well along with UCONN having defensive lapses to jeopardize the under. I'm willing to bet both will not happen.
4. SD ST 1H TT UNDER 28.5 - my basis for taking this is SDST coming out with a lot of nerves early. I can see UCONN also coming out with nerves. SDST has to play at a high level on defense to stay in this game, and I see them doing so early. UCONN is physically imposing and could lock down SDST. I could see an ugly game early (think UCONN/BUTLER 2011). If that occurs (I sure hope so), a dog team total under makes for a beautiful play.
@Macwestie1 it's a pleasure hearing from you brother, I hope you are well! I was hoping to go 4-0 but happy to end NCAAB on a 3-1. I look forward to the insight of the cappers on here for MLB season, as I'm a mediocre capper when it comes to MLB. Feels like an eternity between now and football season!!
Chalks, Dogs, Overs, Unders, Props....I love 'em all
0
@Macwestie1 it's a pleasure hearing from you brother, I hope you are well! I was hoping to go 4-0 but happy to end NCAAB on a 3-1. I look forward to the insight of the cappers on here for MLB season, as I'm a mediocre capper when it comes to MLB. Feels like an eternity between now and football season!!
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