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🔴🥳🍀🥂.. 98 - 41 on NCAA bets since post-season play began March 05 🥳

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Posted: #601

 UPDATED: Since starting this new thread March 18 ... (12 days)

    NCAA MEN      19 - 2 *Best Bets!

    NCAA Women  19 - 1 *Best Bets!

    --------------------------------

          NCAA:  38 - 3  *Best Bets!

 
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Posted: #602

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: First up on Easter Sunday is Oregon State facing S.Carolina in Albany, NY. Gamecocks are -15.5 heavy favs and I expect them to win the game but I hate huge spreads like this when their opp is competitive. However, as I wrote before the Gamecocks got a big scare last game.....they won't allow it today... I look to grab a spread if it can down to single digits...although I think this unlikely....   In WOMEN's action game 2, WolfPack (+6) vs Longhornies (-6) I have a lean to Texas for sure....BUT....their 6'4" Forward/#3 scorer! is OUT!! She was out last game too and it didn't seem to hurt them, but that game was a one-off!  Gonzaga went ice cold, possibly their worst shooting game of the year! -- and they ARE the BEST 3-pt percentage team in the nation!!

So, yeah, a "one-off" for Texas to win by 22 pts....

This gives me pause for today, esp without their #3  - a big forward.....  

=  wait-n-see! but leaning to Texas if they play well and the boxscore metrics favor them

 

@fubah2

  that girl for texas is playing today   

 does that change anything ?

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted: #603

Yeah considering jumping in on Texas + spread but waiting on the call!?

 
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Posted: #604

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: First up on Easter Sunday is Oregon State facing S.Carolina in Albany, NY. Gamecocks are -15.5 heavy favs and I expect them to win the game but I hate huge spreads like this when their opp is competitive. However, as I wrote before the Gamecocks got a big scare last game.....they won't allow it today... I look to grab a spread if it can down to single digits... Ore.State has narrowed the score to 41 - 43  However now I have a good single digit spread to take on Gamecocks!  LIVE BET: S.Carol -7.5 -135  *BB 70 - 58 Another *Best Bet WINNER!!
  great call on that game to pass on the huge favorite spread and wait an_clap   otherwise  u would lose

 

 

 

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Posted: #605

@KellyM_1964

 Game started almost an hour agoan_light

 
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Posted: #606

Quote Originally Posted by TheBigC23:

Yeah considering jumping in on Texas + spread but waiting on the call!?

PASS!!   Texas experiencing their own "one-off" - being badly outplayed by WolfPack........MAYBE in the latter stages of the 2h ....maybe..... but for now, I'm off it even getting big points because they just are not playing well at all an_speechless....

 
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Posted: #607

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: First up on Easter Sunday is Oregon State facing S.Carolina in Albany, NY. Gamecocks are -15.5 heavy favs and I expect them to win the game but I hate huge spreads like this when their opp is competitive. However, as I wrote before the Gamecocks got a big scare last game.....they won't allow it today... I look to grab a spread if it can down to single digits...although I think this unlikely....   In WOMEN's action game 2, WolfPack (+6) vs Longhornies (-6) I have a lean to Texas for sure....BUT....their 6'4" Forward/#3 scorer! is OUT!! She was out last game too and it didn't seem to hurt them, but that game was a one-off!  Gonzaga went ice cold, possibly their worst shooting game of the year! -- and they ARE the BEST 3-pt percentage team in the nation!! So, yeah, a "one-off" for Texas to win by 22 pts.... This gives me pause for today, esp without their #3  - a big forward.....   =  wait-n-see! but leaning to Texas if they play well and the boxscore metrics favor them  @fubah2   that girl for texas is playing today     does that change anything ?
Normally it would have me strongly leaning Texas had I noticed that early......but now, they are being so badly outplayed that I don't see them coming back even with her.... They look listless.   They need to get on a huge momentum roll, then the points might be worth it....

 
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Posted: #608

Quote Originally Posted by Im_Chasing:

@KellyM_1964  Game started almost an hour ago
yep  around  1305 et    and the second game at 1516 et 

 

personally had nothing on either myself

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Posted: #609

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: First up on Easter Sunday is Oregon State facing S.Carolina in Albany, NY. Gamecocks are -15.5 heavy favs and I expect them to win the game but I hate huge spreads like this when their opp is competitive. However, as I wrote before the Gamecocks got a big scare last game.....they won't allow it today... I look to grab a spread if it can down to single digits... Ore.State has narrowed the score to 41 - 43  However now I have a good single digit spread to take on Gamecocks!  LIVE BET: S.Carol -7.5 -135  *BB 70 - 58 Another *Best Bet WINNER!! 

great call on that game to pass on the huge favorite spread and wait    otherwise  u would lose

@KellyM_1964

 Thanks, bud peace_5 They seemed overvalued to me against a very competitive team. So my "wait-n-see" approach, which I have incorporated into my revised capping methods since Feb 13, paid off bigly on that one.

 
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Posted: #610

Quote Originally Posted by Macwestie1:

GL cloveron your plays & Happy Easter @fubah2 peace_5

Thank you, Mac! peace_5 and BoL with your bets today! cloveran_cheers

 
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Posted: #611

Quote Originally Posted by Dental:

@fubah2  Looking forward to your pics today

@Dental

Thank you, peace_5 and BoL with your bets this Easter Weekend. clover

 

 
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Posted: #612

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: First up on Easter Sunday is Oregon State facing S.Carolina in Albany, NY. Gamecocks are -15.5 heavy favs and I expect them to win the game but I hate huge spreads like this when their opp is competitive. However, as I wrote before the Gamecocks got a big scare last game.....they won't allow it today... I look to grab a spread if it can down to single digits...although I think this unlikely....   In WOMEN's action game 2, WolfPack (+6) vs Longhornies (-6) I have a lean to Texas for sure....BUT....their 6'4" Forward/#3 scorer! is OUT!! She was out last game too and it didn't seem to hurt them, but that game was a one-off!  Gonzaga went ice cold, possibly their worst shooting game of the year! -- and they ARE the BEST 3-pt percentage team in the nation!! So, yeah, a "one-off" for Texas to win by 22 pts.... This gives me pause for today, esp without their #3  - a big forward.....   =  wait-n-see! but leaning to Texas if they play well and the boxscore metrics favor them  @fubah2   that girl for texas is playing today     does that change anything ?Normally it would have me strongly leaning Texas had I noticed that early......but now, they are being so badly outplayed that I don't see them coming back even with her.... They look listless.   They need to get on a huge momentum roll, then the points might be worth it....
They're trying, but NC State seems to have an answer each time....Box score metrics heavily favor NC State for a SU win.....9 pt lead at timeout....but more importantly looking ahead to the furious final couple mins, NCSate can hit free throws AND 3s!...Texas is failing badly on both those crucial issues - and foul issues!! - for late in any game expected to be close!! Big edge to NC State, although If TEXAS goes on another big run that momentum could be the diff

 
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Posted: #613

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: First up on Easter Sunday is Oregon State facing S.Carolina in Albany, NY. Gamecocks are -15.5 heavy favs and I expect them to win the game but I hate huge spreads like this when their opp is competitive. However, as I wrote before the Gamecocks got a big scare last game.....they won't allow it today... I look to grab a spread if it can down to single digits...although I think this unlikely....   In WOMEN's action game 2, WolfPack (+6) vs Longhornies (-6) I have a lean to Texas for sure....BUT....their 6'4" Forward/#3 scorer! is OUT!! She was out last game too and it didn't seem to hurt them, but that game was a one-off!  Gonzaga went ice cold, possibly their worst shooting game of the year! -- and they ARE the BEST 3-pt percentage team in the nation!! So, yeah, a "one-off" for Texas to win by 22 pts.... This gives me pause for today, esp without their #3  - a big forward.....   =  wait-n-see! but leaning to Texas if they play well and the boxscore metrics favor them  @fubah2   that girl for texas is playing today     does that change anything ?Normally it would have me strongly leaning Texas had I noticed that early......but now, they are being so badly outplayed that I don't see them coming back even with her.... They look listless.   They need to get on a huge momentum roll, then the points might be worth it.... They're trying, but NC State seems to have an answer each time....Box score metrics heavily favor NC State for a SU win.....9 pt lead at timeout....but more importantly looking ahead to the furious final couple mins, NCSate can hit free throws AND 3s!...Texas is failing badly on both those crucial issues - and foul issues!! - for late in any game expected to be close!! Big edge to NC State, although If TEXAS goes on another big run that momentum could be the diff

2.5 mins into the 4th Q and NCState have increased their lead from 9 to 11....they answer Texas every time....  Texas owns the boards and as such get plenty of second shot opps but they aren't making them....NC State far more efficient

 
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Posted: #614

MONDAY night 7 pm ET...MUST SEE TV!

 

Unfriendly rematch!! an_punch

 

Defending Champ LSU   vs   Caitlyn Clark

 

My bet:  HAWKEYES -125   

an_light...but this is NOT a Best Bet.

The line is IOWA -1.5 or -125 and that's because this one can realistically go either way! an_getaway  I'll be ready to hedge if need be!

 
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Posted: #615

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

MONDAY night 7 pm ET...MUST SEE TV!   Unfriendly rematch!!   Defending Champ LSU   vs   Caitlyn Clark   My bet:  HAWKEYES -125    ...but this is NOT a Best Bet. The line is IOWA -1.5 or -125 and that's because this one can realistically go either way!   I'll be ready to hedge if need be!

got it an_cheers

 

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Posted: #616

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

In MENS action, game 2, WolfPack vs BlueDevils...a conference matchup...this is the rubber match, having split with both games in March!       ....coin-flipper's special part deux, just to win the game! This gives an opening for a WolfPack spread bet....except as usual, I want a bigger cushion as DUKE is the slightly better team....so I will wait to hopefully grab even more points particularly if I can get them in 1H...
  good analysis thumbs_up

 

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Posted: #617

 

   NC State!! an_happydude

 
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Posted: #618

... and ....

 

NC State!! an_happydude

 
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Posted: #619

an_light Tracking my bets since March 05, when the first post-season games began:


NCAA MENS    106 - 49    (45 - 13 *Best Bets)
NCAA Womens  37 - 10    (22 -   5 *Best Bets)

--------------------------------------------

                       143 - 59    (67 - 18 *Best Bets)

 
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Posted: #620

@fubah2

 an_worship

 
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Posted: #621

@fubah2

is iowa a good bet now that the odds moved to 2 pts ?

 

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Posted: #622

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

@fubah2 is iowa a good bet now that the odds moved to 2 pts ?

@KellyM_1964

 Close call there bud.  The game is basically a coin-flip.

 
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Posted: #623

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: @fubah2 is iowa a good bet now that the odds moved to 2 pts ? @KellyM_1964  Close call there bud.  The game is basically a coin-flip.

LSU has the bigs an a solid inside presence but mediocre from the arc.

IOWA does not have bigs and post play not part of their repertoire, however they are dynamic from 3 pt range and have 3 good shooters!

 

LSU has 2 starters who put up a lot of 3s and hit at least 36%

IOWA has 4 starters like that, making it difficult to key on any one.

 
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Posted: #624

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: @fubah2 is iowa a good bet now that the odds moved to 2 pts ? @KellyM_1964  Close call there bud.  The game is basically a coin-flip. LSU has the bigs an a solid inside presence but mediocre from the arc. IOWA does not have bigs and post play not part of their repertoire, however they are dynamic from 3 pt range and have 3 good shooters!   LSU has 2 starters who put up a lot of 3s and hit at least 36% IOWA has 4 starters like that, making it difficult to key on any one.
LSU averages 4.3 made 3-pointers per game

 

IOWA averages 11.0

 
 
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Posted: #625

I think this game comes down to TWO things:

fouls

3-pointers made

 

Predictions:

*IF* either team has at least one HIGH-SCORING starter in early foul trouble with 2.....or with 3 by HT or very shortly after intermission, they are in big trouble.

As a former referee I can confirm they are going over some things now in the ref room....ie, how tight or loose do they want to be, what to look for, etc.... A tightly called game likely favors the HAWKEYES since they play O mostly from the perimeter and allowing the LSU to score from the paint isn't a huge deal if the HAWKEYE O can keep scoring 3's.....

 

an_light*IF* IOWA hits 7 3's by HT,  they ultimately win.....if 6 by HT, they still have a great chance....if 5 then it's a coin-flip....if 4 or less by HT, it's over for the Hawkeyes unless LSU gets into serious foul trouble...

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