TROY overcomes an 18point deficit & wins the game straight up, as i said you have to give the play a chance to win, as they say it's not over till it's over,right?
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TROY overcomes an 18point deficit & wins the game straight up, as i said you have to give the play a chance to win, as they say it's not over till it's over,right?
I've only browsed through this thread from time to time and all I gotta say is you have a lot of patience kp to put up with what I see going on here. Everything that's wrong with public sports gambling forums can be found in this thread. I wish you the best though for trying, you must be one hell of a good guy
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I've only browsed through this thread from time to time and all I gotta say is you have a lot of patience kp to put up with what I see going on here. Everything that's wrong with public sports gambling forums can be found in this thread. I wish you the best though for trying, you must be one hell of a good guy
Many thanks to KP for all of the amazing work he does here at covers. You are one of the first appears I look for each and every day. I love this system and know that it will continue to cash. Keep up the outstanding work! Best of luck in the upcoming weeks. We're almost there....MARCH MADNESS!
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Many thanks to KP for all of the amazing work he does here at covers. You are one of the first appears I look for each and every day. I love this system and know that it will continue to cash. Keep up the outstanding work! Best of luck in the upcoming weeks. We're almost there....MARCH MADNESS!
READ POST 1, 2 and 159 before you ask any questions
I'm sure you can easily figure this out, but for sake of consistency, here are the system plays for Sunday. This plays are based on the opening line available to me at 5dimes
Northern Illinois +10 Canisius +10
*I waited on all the system plays till closer to gametime and got a better line on most (which is what made the Edwardsville foul so brutal), so that is something to consider.
Almost plays: None
*I'm still holding out 1% hope that we weed out the 'tards and can have an actual conversation about some of these games but that is probably too much to ask. And trust me when I say that I know that there is a silent majority out there that either doesn't have an account or just rarely posts that read the thread and appreciate the info, thanks again for the support and I hope this thread helps you make money. Here's what I'm considering tomorrow Games I'm looking at:
Denver -9.5 (hoping this comes down a bit) - This would be a spot play here: North Texas top two players played 43 minutes in overtime game on Thursday - Denver is at home, senior day, well-rested (haven't played in a week) and in really nice form. Also, Denver remembers the beatdown North Texas game them on the game of the regular season last year. No great value in the line, just think it lines up well for a situational spot (kinda like Wyoming -7 today)
Marist ML - Much like how I've riding The Citadel to a 6-1 ATS record over the last two weeks, I'm going to keep riding the underappreciated Marist team as well. Marist 6-1 ATS as well (and I was against them on the one loss as they matchup terribly with Fairfield). Marist has been a solid home team, they are in excellent form, have revenge and are a decent matchup against Niagara (as Niagara is terrible on defense). Niagara had lost 4 in a row on the road until eeking out a 3-pt win against horrible St. Peter's (this is a similar play as my Ok St play was today as it was a play AGAINST Texas A&M horrible road form).
Good luck with whatever you decide
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System 3-3 today
READ POST 1, 2 and 159 before you ask any questions
I'm sure you can easily figure this out, but for sake of consistency, here are the system plays for Sunday. This plays are based on the opening line available to me at 5dimes
Northern Illinois +10 Canisius +10
*I waited on all the system plays till closer to gametime and got a better line on most (which is what made the Edwardsville foul so brutal), so that is something to consider.
Almost plays: None
*I'm still holding out 1% hope that we weed out the 'tards and can have an actual conversation about some of these games but that is probably too much to ask. And trust me when I say that I know that there is a silent majority out there that either doesn't have an account or just rarely posts that read the thread and appreciate the info, thanks again for the support and I hope this thread helps you make money. Here's what I'm considering tomorrow Games I'm looking at:
Denver -9.5 (hoping this comes down a bit) - This would be a spot play here: North Texas top two players played 43 minutes in overtime game on Thursday - Denver is at home, senior day, well-rested (haven't played in a week) and in really nice form. Also, Denver remembers the beatdown North Texas game them on the game of the regular season last year. No great value in the line, just think it lines up well for a situational spot (kinda like Wyoming -7 today)
Marist ML - Much like how I've riding The Citadel to a 6-1 ATS record over the last two weeks, I'm going to keep riding the underappreciated Marist team as well. Marist 6-1 ATS as well (and I was against them on the one loss as they matchup terribly with Fairfield). Marist has been a solid home team, they are in excellent form, have revenge and are a decent matchup against Niagara (as Niagara is terrible on defense). Niagara had lost 4 in a row on the road until eeking out a 3-pt win against horrible St. Peter's (this is a similar play as my Ok St play was today as it was a play AGAINST Texas A&M horrible road form).
Hey Kine, Have you ever thought of giving the system plays ratings?
Being looking at it for three years and its pretty much impossible - all I can say is ignore the system or play them all because any attempt to mix and match plays or bet more on certain types of system plays have failed. Who saw Monroe winning by DD as a 13-pt dog in the RaginCajin Dome? That was the one system play I liked the least of all!
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Quote Originally Posted by R-Town:
Hey Kine, Have you ever thought of giving the system plays ratings?
Being looking at it for three years and its pretty much impossible - all I can say is ignore the system or play them all because any attempt to mix and match plays or bet more on certain types of system plays have failed. Who saw Monroe winning by DD as a 13-pt dog in the RaginCajin Dome? That was the one system play I liked the least of all!
Please do not get mad at the following question: It seems like someone else at another site said that this is the last home game for many of the teams on today's schedule, and that it might be Senior Night for many of these schools, and that it MIGHT make a difference.
My only question is this: Does that matter at all here.
Thanks (here is the quote)
This is the last home game for Hofstra (UNCW), James Madison (Towson),
Fla Atl (Troy), LA Monroe (LA Lafayette), CAL Irvine (CS Northridge),
Wolford (Furman), Morehead St (Edwardsville), Jacksonville State
(Tenn-Martin). I remember reading an initial post about this system saying do not play
it when the home team is playing on senior night- their last home game
The very first year of the system, I worried that the senior night would effect the system and number and even suggested we don't make them at all, turns out they hit at an even higher percentage than the ones before senior night. Also, along that same vein, just because one team "needs" a win for seeding purposes make them NO LESS LIKELY to win or cover a number. It is human nature to think that it would, but the numbers say it doesn't matter at all.
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Quote Originally Posted by Philbert:
Please do not get mad at the following question: It seems like someone else at another site said that this is the last home game for many of the teams on today's schedule, and that it might be Senior Night for many of these schools, and that it MIGHT make a difference.
My only question is this: Does that matter at all here.
Thanks (here is the quote)
This is the last home game for Hofstra (UNCW), James Madison (Towson),
Fla Atl (Troy), LA Monroe (LA Lafayette), CAL Irvine (CS Northridge),
Wolford (Furman), Morehead St (Edwardsville), Jacksonville State
(Tenn-Martin). I remember reading an initial post about this system saying do not play
it when the home team is playing on senior night- their last home game
The very first year of the system, I worried that the senior night would effect the system and number and even suggested we don't make them at all, turns out they hit at an even higher percentage than the ones before senior night. Also, along that same vein, just because one team "needs" a win for seeding purposes make them NO LESS LIKELY to win or cover a number. It is human nature to think that it would, but the numbers say it doesn't matter at all.
after looking through the six system plays I saw that 2 players on Furman that are major contributors are listed as ? or out. Also one on Tenn Martin as well. No big line movements on either games. Any take on these. Not trying to cause confusion just bringing up things I saw doing a lil research.
Injuries are a big part of the end of the season (especially for these under the radar teams and games), if you see injures and decide to "no-play" a system game that is completely up to you (and probably a good call). The previous few years, injuries didn't significantly effect the percentage that the system hit. But, as you say, the line rarely reflects injuries to starters for these lower-ranked teams so if you have good twitter-facebook-google sources and can confirm info - you have a BIG advantage here at the end of the season.
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Quote Originally Posted by mzoufan:
KP
first thanks for all you've done to date.
after looking through the six system plays I saw that 2 players on Furman that are major contributors are listed as ? or out. Also one on Tenn Martin as well. No big line movements on either games. Any take on these. Not trying to cause confusion just bringing up things I saw doing a lil research.
Injuries are a big part of the end of the season (especially for these under the radar teams and games), if you see injures and decide to "no-play" a system game that is completely up to you (and probably a good call). The previous few years, injuries didn't significantly effect the percentage that the system hit. But, as you say, the line rarely reflects injuries to starters for these lower-ranked teams so if you have good twitter-facebook-google sources and can confirm info - you have a BIG advantage here at the end of the season.
I have 5 of those 6 plays in my personal plays...plus ULM is my daily system play...Furman is the only one I don't have, but I don't have the other side either...good to know that my picks are matching the system...
In hindsight of our recent turmoil...Good Luck with the plays today...I respect the system, never sais anything bad against it!
Same to you as well - good luck with your thread and it turned out to be an excellent call to have Furman out. Let's put our heads together and destroy these conference tournaments
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Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:
I have 5 of those 6 plays in my personal plays...plus ULM is my daily system play...Furman is the only one I don't have, but I don't have the other side either...good to know that my picks are matching the system...
In hindsight of our recent turmoil...Good Luck with the plays today...I respect the system, never sais anything bad against it!
Same to you as well - good luck with your thread and it turned out to be an excellent call to have Furman out. Let's put our heads together and destroy these conference tournaments
System or not, what is everyone's opinion about taking Western Illinois? They look like a team that could steal a win here?
Anyone else look at this game? Thanks.
Wish I had seen this early (been out ALL DAY), hope you were on it - I had it in the additional play list for consideration and played it myself - that was an excellent call about them stealing this game
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Quote Originally Posted by Philbert:
System or not, what is everyone's opinion about taking Western Illinois? They look like a team that could steal a win here?
Anyone else look at this game? Thanks.
Wish I had seen this early (been out ALL DAY), hope you were on it - I had it in the additional play list for consideration and played it myself - that was an excellent call about them stealing this game
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