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2012 Kempom System

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sllab33

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 554

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 1:12 PM ET #51

actually hunter, kine would prefer if ppl like bengal fan were simply told this:

"READ THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD AND FIGURE IT OUT FOR YOURSELF, YOU LAZY NUMBNUTS"

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HunterPrice

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 1555

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 1:14 PM ET #52

Quote Originally Posted by sllab33:

actually hunter, kine would prefer if ppl like bengal fan were simply told this:

"READ THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD AND FIGURE IT OUT FOR YOURSELF, YOU LAZY NUMBNUTS"

Noted,

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wmi799

Legend

Joined: Mar, 2010

Posts: 33002

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 1:27 PM ET #53

Quote Originally Posted by sllab33:

actually hunter, kine would prefer if ppl like bengal fan were simply told this:

"READ THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD AND FIGURE IT OUT FOR YOURSELF, YOU LAZY NUMBNUTS"

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad

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npearl

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 1839

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 1:38 PM ET #54

Quote Originally Posted by sllab33:

actually hunter, kine would prefer if ppl like bengal fan were simply told this:

"READ THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD AND FIGURE IT OUT FOR YOURSELF, YOU LAZY NUMBNUTS"

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PLAYAAAA1969

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 9988

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 1:48 PM ET #55

I expect 38 - 9 on System plays...Or your dead meat...

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brthestar

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 420

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 1:53 PM ET #56

Quote Originally Posted by PLAYAAAA1969:

I expect 38 - 9 on System plays...Or your dead meat...

Only "Playaaa's" can produce #'s like that......

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BonoBob

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2010

Posts: 223

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 2:10 PM ET #57

Playaaaaaaaaaaaa's don't need do any damn thing but show us that fine asssss of hers.....lol

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JEG53

Hall of Fame

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 26400

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 2:15 PM ET #58

Thanks Prof.for the work,pre-system plays this year were very good,but ryno thread went very south at times,alot of games in there that were being played didnt qualify,but the games ryno posted did very well,
and a Thanks to Ryno for posting pre-plays,starting off with house money and lets hope for another profit from this system.

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Fools_Gold

Rookie

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 958

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 2:56 PM ET #59

Quote Originally Posted by HunterPrice:

Now that we are past Bracket buster weekend, I'm not sure this will come up again but I'll ask it anyway.

In a situation where you have two teams from separate conferences where only one of the teams has regular lines is the system based on only the home team being from one of the "lined" conferences? OR do both teams have to be from the normally "lined" conferences?

thanks!

I checked the results from that first year and it seems that BOTH have to be from "lined" conferences....

Seems those "unlined" conference teams are always such big question marks.... better to just lay off....

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cr619

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2012

Posts: 20

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 3:44 PM ET #60

Quote Originally Posted by Bengalfan9:

too much reading, just give us the fuckin play!

Bengalfan should go play with himself...

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RebelTell2

Veteran

Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 2921

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 3:44 PM ET #61

I'm not a profit of line movement and can tell you that I would rather grab a line .5 pts too soon, than 1-2 pts too late. Amazon.com forgot to ship me my crystal ball so its pointless to ask me what I think the line will do, if this season is any indication, it will probably move down (away from us).

You may not be a prophet but you will profit!!! Hey Kine, thanks for your great help...you and nropp11 are the nuts in my humble opinion. Let's get 'em from here on out.

RebelTell2

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HunterPrice

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 1555

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:17 PM ET #62

Quote Originally Posted by Fools_Gold:

I checked the results from that first year and it seems that BOTH have to be from "lined" conferences....

Seems those "unlined" conference teams are always such big question marks.... better to just lay off....

I thought as much, thanks for the confirmation.

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gobi85

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 183

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:18 PM ET #63

Started looking into tomorrows games. I already ruled out some games due to conference or current Kenpom ranking. Of the remaining games, I am pretty sure there are some other games that can be ruled out, but I figured I'd leave them in until the lines come out and we can properly rule them out. Also, I am not sure if Kenpom rankings are updated daily/weekly, so I left in all the games where the home team is in the vicinity of the 165 rank. Here is what I have so far:

Clemson (76) @ Georgia Tech (151) - ACC

Kent St. (113) @ Miami (OH) (197) - MAC

Illinois-Chicago (277) @ Butler (132) - Horizon

Wofford (189) @ UNC-Greensboro - (263) - Southern

Miami (FL) (42) @ Maryland (146) - ACC

Cleveland St. (86) @ Green Bay (183) - Horizon

Loyola (IL) (292) @ Valpo (143) - Horizon

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HunterPrice

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 1555

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:19 PM ET #64

Quote Originally Posted by RebelTell2:

I'm not a profit of line movement and can tell you that I would rather grab a line .5 pts too soon, than 1-2 pts too late. Amazon.com forgot to ship me my crystal ball so its pointless to ask me what I think the line will do, if this season is any indication, it will probably move down (away from us).

You may not be a prophet but you will profit!!! Hey Kine, thanks for your great help...you and nropp11 are the nuts in my humble opinion. Let's get 'em from here on out.

RebelTell2

Couldn't resist giving a shout out to Amazon Prime.....I think I'm addicted to the free shipping, lol

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riccio14

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2008

Posts: 1391

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:27 PM ET #65

Quote Originally Posted by gobi85:

Started looking into tomorrows games. I already ruled out some games due to conference or current Kenpom ranking. Of the remaining games, I am pretty sure there are some other games that can be ruled out, but I figured I'd leave them in until the lines come out and we can properly rule them out. Also, I am not sure if Kenpom rankings are updated daily/weekly, so I left in all the games where the home team is in the vicinity of the 165 rank. Here is what I have so far:

Clemson (76) @ Georgia Tech (151) - ACC

Kent St. (113) @ Miami (OH) (197) - MAC

Illinois-Chicago (277) @ Butler (132) - Horizon

Wofford (189) @ UNC-Greensboro - (263) - Southern

Miami (FL) (42) @ Maryland (146) - ACC

Cleveland St. (86) @ Green Bay (183) - Horizon

Loyola (IL) (292) @ Valpo (143) - Horizon

You wasted your time. Not one of those games will be close to becoming a system play

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gobi85

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2010

Posts: 183

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:33 PM ET #66

Quote Originally Posted by riccio14:

You wasted your time. Not one of those games will be close to becoming a system play

I guess if practicing how to determine system plays rather than making plays based on what others post is unimportant, than I wasted my time. As I stated before, many of those plays could be ruled out. I was just trying to stick with the system parameters and not rule out any plays until they were justly ruled out. I'd rather be extra cautious and thorough then to possibly miss a play.

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kammer55

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 3023

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:37 PM ET #67

Thanks for your time and effort KINE it's appreciated!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

cheech1972

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KineProfessor

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4616

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:39 PM ET #68

Hey Guys,
I'm not planning on coming in here and answering questions every day because: a. there are plenty of people I trust on the site to answer your questions correctly and b. there aren't very many questions that you can ask that weren't already answered in the first two above posts. But as the main question of the thread till this point:

The opening line is the first line YOU have the opportunity to bet

Normally, if you have online books (and even most locals), that would be some time the evening before the games (5dimes normally posts the next days line after the last game of the night has tipped off. So, for me, that would be the "opening line"

This means that there will be the possibility that a game COULD be a play for some people and NOT for others. I, myself, am always looking for ways to LIMIT my plays, not expand them and I would suggest that you do the same.

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KineProfessor

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4616

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:43 PM ET #69

Quote Originally Posted by bigbozo:

Kine Professor, first let me say that you are very gracious to share all your efforts with this forum.

While this system is simple, it is still difficult not to want to use some of your own skill and experience. For example, when you say a team loses value that opened +11 and moves against you to +8, wouldn't that apply more if you made your own line? The public doesn't usually back these bad teams for many of the reasons you gave, so it would seem that it if it doesn't go below 6 1/2, it could be a smaller play. (That is for those that can't or don't get the opening number.)

And for the conferences usually not lined, I have observed over the years they have won much more than they have lost when they get line movement. Just yesterday, Albany went from +1 to -1 1/2 with their 2 best players out and then won both halves which made no sense if you handicaped the game. Another recent game was Coppin St which opened at -14 1/2 and closed at -11. They won the 1h by 18, then lost the 2h by 15 to win by 3.

Alabama A&M a few weeks ago was lined and in the same type of game as Coppin St, so that is just a few lately. IMHO, there was something going on in all those games and it wasn't the public on them. And tomorrow's game also fits the same mold, so in this case I would much rather be on the side getting the move, wouldn't you? Again, thank you for all the nice work you have done!

Perfect example of using the principles of the system to find others plays outside the system. Just by the fact that you are looking at these types of games as opposed to the "popular" games means you are more likely to be successful at this endeavor.

I don't pay attention to line movement AT ALL. For every time a line moves one way and the line wins, the next time it will move a similar way and it loses. I ALWAYS want the best line possible and if I think a particular play is the right side and the line is moving towards me (aka I'm getting an even better line), I don't worry about that at all, in fact, I'll consider better more in that case. So I'm probably a bad person to ask about line movement plays as I give them absolutely zero weight and they don't factor in my handicapping in the least

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Quote Originally Posted by bigbozo:

Kine Professor, first let me say that you are very gracious to share all your efforts with this forum.

While this system is simple, it is still difficult not to want to use some of your own skill and experience. For example, when you say a team loses value that opened +11 and moves against you to +8, wouldn't that apply more if you made your own line? The public doesn't usually back these bad teams for many of the reasons you gave, so it would seem that it if it doesn't go below 6 1/2, it could be a smaller play. (That is for those that can't or don't get the opening number.)

And for the conferences usually not lined, I have observed over the years they have won much more than they have lost when they get line movement. Just yesterday, Albany went from +1 to -1 1/2 with their 2 best players out and then won both halves which made no sense if you handicaped the game. Another recent game was Coppin St which opened at -14 1/2 and closed at -11. They won the 1h by 18, then lost the 2h by 15 to win by 3.

Alabama A&M a few weeks ago was lined and in the same type of game as Coppin St, so that is just a few lately. IMHO, there was something going on in all those games and it wasn't the public on them. And tomorrow's game also fits the same mold, so in this case I would much rather be on the side getting the move, wouldn't you? Again, thank you for all the nice work you have done!

Perfect example of using the principles of the system to find others plays outside the system. Just by the fact that you are looking at these types of games as opposed to the "popular" games means you are more likely to be successful at this endeavor.

I don't pay attention to line movement AT ALL. For every time a line moves one way and the line wins, the next time it will move a similar way and it loses. I ALWAYS want the best line possible and if I think a particular play is the right side and the line is moving towards me (aka I'm getting an even better line), I don't worry about that at all, in fact, I'll consider better more in that case. So I'm probably a bad person to ask about line movement plays as I give them absolutely zero weight and they don't factor in my handicapping in the least

KineProfessor

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4616

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:44 PM ET #70

Quote Originally Posted by npearl:

Thank you very much, Kine.

As a point of reference, where do you find your most reliable openers?

Going to repeat there here just in case anyone missed it, your "opener" is the very first chance the game is made available by your online site, local, etc.

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KineProfessor

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4616

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:49 PM ET #71

Quote Originally Posted by HunterPrice:

Now that we are past Bracket buster weekend, I'm not sure this will come up again but I'll ask it anyway.

In a situation where you have two teams from separate conferences where only one of the teams has regular lines is the system based on only the home team being from one of the "lined" conferences? OR do both teams have to be from the normally "lined" conferences?

thanks!

I'm always looking for ways to LIMIT the system plays, so both teams would have to be from "lined" conferences, but that doesn't mean I still wouldn't bet the game. If you always bet against a sucky team every time they were a big favorite (whether they fit the system or not - and our definition of "sucky" could be different), my hypothesis is that you will make money season in and season out

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ryno23

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 3020

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:49 PM ET #72

Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

Thanks Prof.for the work,pre-system plays this year were very good,but ryno thread went very south at times,alot of games in there that were being played didnt qualify,but the games ryno posted did very well,
and a Thanks to Ryno for posting pre-plays,starting off with house money and lets hope for another profit from this system.

thanks jegs,

yes i did the pre system...and it was profitable... 25 and 9 i beleive....as far as some plays in there that werent system...i would state when it wasnt a system or play that met the parameters ....other than that i wasnt real strict with it.... all in all..glad kine wrote this thread.

gl the rest of way... ryno

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KineProfessor

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4616

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:49 PM ET #73

Quote Originally Posted by sllab33:

actually hunter, kine would prefer if ppl like bengal fan were simply told this:

"READ THE FIRST POST OF THIS THREAD AND FIGURE IT OUT FOR YOURSELF, YOU LAZY NUMBNUTS"

Exactly!

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ryno23

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 3020

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:51 PM ET #74

Quote Originally Posted by riccio14:

You wasted your time. Not one of those games will be close to becoming a system play

riccio,

can you believe after the first ''very detailed'' post they still have to be um....challenged?...gl look forward to your totals play still thanks ryno

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KineProfessor

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 4616

Posted: Feb. 20, 2012 - 4:52 PM ET #75

Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

Thanks Prof.for the work,pre-system plays this year were very good,but ryno thread went very south at times,alot of games in there that were being played didnt qualify,but the games ryno posted did very well,
and a Thanks to Ryno for posting pre-plays,starting off with house money and lets hope for another profit from this system.

I was in contact with Ryno and he did an awesome job with the threads, the actual "pre-system" plays did very well (10-12 games over .500 depending on what lines you got) and the games that actually didn't fit "the pre-system" also made money, just not at as high a clip. But that should tell us that just because a game doesn't fit the system parameters exactly, it doesn't mean we should still consider betting on or against that team - its based on that principle that I've been making money the last three years

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2012 Kempom System

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