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2012 Kempom System

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Posted: #876
Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:



Don't forget that you did wager 1.5 Units on Weber State...1 unit at 5...and a (1/2) unit more at 5.5...
Don't forget that your Trend plays your posting are not a System. Also you should send an email to StatFox and let them know that you are posting plays from their available power trends and classifying them as a System....
 
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Posted: #877
Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:

RyS...where are you getting your public numbers, covers has all three plays by the system as non public faves (below 50%)...

 
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Posted: #878
odds...they are not from StatFox... 
 
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Posted: #879
Its was to late last night,
Miami Ohio at Bowling Green,getting 7.5 isnt a play?
I put Ball St who they dont play.
 
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Posted: #880
Quote Originally Posted by RyS:

One thing Im gonna keep an eye on...

One of the "angles" the system is based according to KP is playing against public perception, Thats why there was value on bad teams on the road getting > +6 pts vs not good teams at home..

well I didnt check it before yesterday, but maybe this system got too "public", let me explain..

Yesterdays system Idaho St. was a public favorite (wish contradicts the system) and lost, but N. Colorado was not favored by public (and won ats almost SU)

I know that to base premises based in one day sample is not valid, but I'm gonna keep eye on it from now on and keep record of it(not here).

Eg Today all 3 system plays are public favorite, also almost play (wrong conference) Army is public favorite while the other "almost" plays (Fordham, VA Milit, High Point) are not favored. 

lets see how these develop..

GL
Rysuno



I also noticed the same thing and hate playing public dogs. In fact I almost will never play a public dog (ie; took Georgetown and Kansas on Monday because of this and then last night took St. Louis and laid off Weber and TCU because of this) Of course it has been the right move the last couple nights and that does not always ring true. I use pregame and vegasinsider, along with another site or two if their is a discrepancy. The more "known" or "popular" a team is, the more I stick to this rule of thumb.  Again, pointing to the play against ND on Monday as a great example.

Last night I played Idaho St for .5 units and No. Colorado for 1 unit based on this premise alone. Should have went with my gut and laid off Idaho St. altogether but I am trying to stick to the system and play every game.

Interesting topic and I actually thought about bringing it up today myself. Using pregame you can go back and look at past dates so researching this on all past system plays is possible if you trust the information you are being given.



 
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Posted: #881
Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:

I played Miami O+7.5,what # is Ball St?
god your lazy, and put a shirt on..
 
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Posted: #882
Quote Originally Posted by p-lane1:

god your lazy, and put a shirt on..


if you have paid for ken-pom all you had to do was give the #,if not I didnt need an answer from you,but thanks for the help.
 
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Posted: #883
Quote Originally Posted by JEG53:



if you have paid for ken-pom all you had to do was give the #,if not I didnt need an answer from you,but thanks for the help.

Clearly you've never even tried to look up the # yourself. Try starting here: www.google.com
 
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Posted: #884
Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:



Don't forget that you did wager 1.5 Units on Weber State...1 unit at 5...and a (1/2) unit more at 5.5...

Nobody here is interested in all your nipicking.  You're really a sicko to keep harping on the same topic over and over!  You must NOT be taking your medication lately.

 
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Posted: #885
bigbozo...that is actually the first time I said anything about the Weber State wager...

Just a reminder to Kine...I figured he just forgot last night about the extra (1/2) unit on weber...  
 
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Posted: #886
Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:



Don't forget that you did wager 1.5 Units on Weber State...1 unit at 5...and a (1/2) unit more at 5.5...

Can you just give it a fucking rest?? Why do you insist on being such a complete asshole?? No wonder you have so little respect here. You have you own thread. Stay in it!

Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
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Posted: #887
Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:

bigbozo...that is actually the first time I said anything about the Weber State wager...

Just a reminder to Kine...I figured he just forgot last night about the extra (1/2) unit on weber...  


Why would you think he forgot how much he bet and why do you even care,you have your own thread why not just take care of that.
 
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Posted: #888
Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:

bigbozo...that is actually the first time I said anything about the Weber State wager...

Just a reminder to Kine...I figured he just forgot last night about the extra (1/2) unit on weber...  


You are on the 1/2 unit Police....Get a Fucking Life....Better yet Just Get Lost...
 
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Posted: #889
with KPs recent "tweaking" of the system, the kenpom cutoff was moved from 180 to 165. CS Fullerton (Northridge's opponent) is now at 166. So prior to the change, this wouldn't be a play. Now I know that it's not true to form to play this system religiously (like I do) and handicap but the games, but I just wanted to bring up this talking point... One of the main points for this system is that you are playing against a bad home team that has perhaps lost it's motivation at the end of the year. But am I confident that Fullerton is a "bad home team" that has thrown in the towel on the season? I'm by no means a brilliant handicapping mind, but a quick look at the Big West standings shows Fullerton tied for second with a conference record of 10-4 and an overall record of 19-8. I just wanted to bring this up as a talker for this group, as we work toward a common goal. If the common response is "shut up serpent and play it like a normal system play", then that's exactly what I'll be doing. KP and all the regulars, good luck!
 
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Posted: #890
with KPs recent "tweaking" of the system, the kenpom cutoff was moved from 180 to 165. CS Fullerton (Northridge's opponent) is now at 166. So prior to the change, this wouldn't be a play. Now I know that it's not true to form to play this system religiously (like I do) and handicap but the games, but I just wanted to bring up this talking point... One of the main points for this system is that you are playing against a bad home team that has perhaps lost it's motivation at the end of the year. But am I confident that Fullerton is a "bad home team" that has thrown in the towel on the season? I'm by no means a brilliant handicapping mind, but a quick look at the Big West standings shows Fullerton tied for second with a conference record of 10-4 and an overall record of 19-8. I just wanted to bring this up as a talker for this group, as we work toward a common goal. If the common response is "shut up serpent and play it like a normal system play", then that's exactly what I'll be doing. KP and all the regulars, good luck!
 
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Posted: #891
I agree w/ S erpent...The best Value of System games is E Mich ..which I put in at 4u....3u on W Mich and 3u on CS northr...The system is a guideline ..but I suggest you cap the plays and determine what value each game has to yourself,,,
 
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Posted: #892
Kine,  been following your system, and just curious.......have you done any research on the ML's of the system plays winning?  I've noticed some winning outright, but haven't kept tract
 
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Posted: #893

1-1 so far with north ridge to go

east mich won straight up. so far betting on ML would have yielded more $$$

 
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Posted: #894
E.Mich ml+400      
 
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Posted: #895

loving the results tonight so far

 

 
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Posted: #896

and pitchblack is still a fool haha

 
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Posted: #897
If the guy that is playing M/Ls took E.Mich on it that was a nice pay out,think Fullerton move down was losing last game on the road as a 12 point fav.to UC Davis,team tonight they beat on the road by 2 I think it was.
Im taking it as a play because they were losers at LB St by 8 or something the first place team.

Miami Ohio covered so didnt matter what # BG was,was also surprised to see them 118,
 
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Posted: #898
Another winner,knew I should of went for middle,1 point at half,7 point line for sec.half,11 point win for CSF.
 
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Posted: #899
2-1

Not bad.
 
 
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Posted: #900
2-1 ATS, and wagering $100 on each ML (which went 1-2), netted +200 overall.  Not bad indeed.  Nice to be on the right side of those end of game nailbiters after the last week or so.
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