Posted:
#951
Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011:
Probably going to ask the so called experts this question also...on Vegas Sports Day, but thought I would ask Kine (are forum expert) also...
Probably going to ask the so called experts this question also...on Vegas Sports Day, but thought I would ask Kine (are forum expert) also...
When is the best time to lock in a play...should one...
1) Jump on the opening line hoping they don't lose value
2) Wait and hope to get value by line movement and at the same time risk losing value
Most will say the closing line is more accurate and thus one would expect to have less value...however I have been burned many times (especially this NBA season) by jumping on the opening line only to be burned by injuries to players that aren't announced untill game time...
Thanks, in advance, for your respone...
PB. 
I treat every single sport differently. The only sports I see an advantage in betting day-to-day right now are cbb hoops, mma and soccer (for various reasons), I also personally bet college football but purely for enjoyment and "sweat" purposes not to necessarily "make money." If I bet any other sport, its just a "spot" play that I see tons of value in.
That being said, its my belief that every sport requires its on philosophy towards various angles such as injuries, line movement, trends etc. I treat this NBA season exactly like I treat soccer, which is I NEVER lock in a play without knowing who is in the starting lineup and who is available off the bench. This is a pain to research and might even lose a bit of "line value" but is much more profitable in the long-run as you base your plays, unit size, etc on who will be playing in the game (and those facts make much more of a difference in who covers or not than the .5 or 1 pt of line value you may have missed).
In college hoops its my belief that injuries are very overrated. Many times an injury to a starting player doesn't even influence the line at all, which should tell you something about how valuable this information truly is. Only injuries I pay attention to are to point guards (especially if they are "used" in 24% of more possessions, i.e. the offense runs through them) or if its an All-Conference performer/leading scorer or if its an injury to a team that has an 8-man rotation or less, all other injuries I ignore for the most part.
Also, losing .5 or even 1 or more points of "value" on a line are not all created equal. If I lose 1 pt of value on an EMU or Citadel line, a game that I expect to slower with fewer possessions that is a much bigger deal than if I lose .5 or 1 pt of value in a Weber St vs Northern Colorado matchup. I'd say its like a 3:1 ratio for me. For every .5 pts I would lose off a Citadel line would equal about 1.5 on a Weber st line. Also, when losing .5 you need to consider is it the difference between a push to a loss or a win to a push. If I have to take +15 with Davis (which I didn't I grabbed 15.5) and if the game should land exactly on 15, no harm no foul, and its not nearly as big a deal to me as if I missed +15 and now are taking +14.5 and if it lands on 15 I lose the bet outright (again just my personal philosophy).
Also, understand that the bigger the spread (especially when you are taking underdogs) the less important a .5 becomes because there is a big significant decrease in late game fouling when a lead is over 2 possession (and even moreso over 3 possessions). So if Cal Poly gets the ball back up 11 with shot clock turned off you are very likely not going to get another foul (not always but most of the time) and .5 or even 1 point of value doesn't make a big difference. But if you grab, say a +6.5 instead of a +7.5, that kinds of lead/spread lends itself to late game fouling all the way up to the buzzer in most instances and hence is actually a bigger "loss" in value. So +15 to +14 does not equal or represent the same loss in value at +7.5 to +6.5 does (and don't even get me started on totals where people lose 4-6 pts of value off an opening line and still bet it - that is craziness). If you like an over bet it as soon as you can, if its an under (unless is a super high or super low total) you are almost always better served to wait and let the line climb.
Lastly, I think you are better off grabbing the lines for favorites early than underdogs in the long run (San Diego being a good example as I'm still hoping the game drops back to -3 tonight), especially if those favorites are between about -2 to -6ish. Because my situation is unique as I only have 5dimes as my online book, I will RARELY grab a line before the next morning as I value the "reduced juice" much more highly than I do the possible drop in value of .5 points.
There is more to it than that, but heading back in to work for a while, hope that gets you thinking about what you want your personal philosophy to be towards these things.
I'll be back later if I lock anything else in.
0
Hot Forum Topics
