2012 Kempom System

I treat every single sport differently.  The only sports I see an advantage in betting day-to-day right now are cbb hoops, mma and soccer (for various reasons), I also personally bet college football but purely for enjoyment and "sweat" purposes not to necessarily "make money."  If I bet any other sport, its just a "spot" play that I see tons of value in. 

That being said, its my belief that every sport requires its on philosophy towards various angles such as injuries, line movement, trends etc.  I treat this NBA season exactly like I treat soccer, which is I NEVER lock in a play without knowing who is in the starting lineup and who is available off the bench.  This is a pain to research and might even lose a bit of "line value" but is much more profitable in the long-run as you base your plays, unit size, etc on who will be playing in the game (and those facts make much more of a difference in who covers or not than the .5 or 1 pt of line value you may have missed). 

In college hoops its my belief that injuries are very overrated.  Many times an injury to a starting player doesn't even influence the line at all, which should tell you something about how valuable this information truly is.  Only injuries I pay attention to are to point guards (especially if they are "used" in 24% of more possessions, i.e. the offense runs through them) or if its an All-Conference performer/leading scorer or if its an injury to a team that has an 8-man rotation or less, all other injuries I ignore for the most part. 

Also, losing .5 or even 1 or more points of "value" on a line are not all created equal.  If I lose 1 pt of value on an EMU or Citadel line, a game that I expect to slower with fewer possessions that is a much bigger deal than if I lose .5 or 1 pt of value in a Weber St vs Northern Colorado matchup.  I'd say its like a 3:1 ratio for me.  For every .5 pts I would lose off a Citadel line would equal about 1.5 on a Weber st line.  Also, when losing .5 you need to consider is it the difference between a push to a loss or a win to a push.  If I have to take +15 with Davis (which I didn't I grabbed 15.5) and if the game should land exactly on 15, no harm no foul, and its not nearly as big a deal to me as if I missed +15 and now are taking +14.5 and if it lands on 15 I lose the bet outright (again just my personal philosophy). 

Also, understand that the bigger the spread (especially when you are taking underdogs) the less important a .5 becomes because there is a big significant decrease in late game fouling when a lead is over 2 possession (and even moreso over 3 possessions).  So if Cal Poly gets the ball back up 11 with shot clock turned off you are very likely not going to get another foul (not always but most of the time) and .5 or even 1 point of value doesn't make a big difference.  But if you grab, say a +6.5 instead of a +7.5, that kinds of lead/spread lends itself to late game fouling all the way up to the buzzer in most instances and hence is actually a bigger "loss" in value.  So +15 to +14 does not equal or represent the same loss in value at +7.5 to +6.5 does (and don't even get me started on totals where people lose 4-6 pts of value off an opening line and still bet it - that is craziness).  If you like an over bet it as soon as you can, if its an under (unless is a super high or super low total) you are almost always better served to wait and let the line climb. 

Lastly, I think you are better off grabbing the lines for favorites early than underdogs in the long run (San Diego being a good example as I'm still hoping the game drops back to -3 tonight), especially if those favorites are between about -2 to -6ish.  Because my situation is unique as I only have 5dimes as my online book, I will RARELY grab a line before the next morning as I value the "reduced juice" much more highly than I do the possible drop in value of .5 points. 

There is more to it than that, but heading back in to work for a while, hope that gets you thinking about what you want your personal philosophy to be towards these things. 

I'll be back later if I lock anything else in.

Well said!

Just got Pacific +16 ....lets do this!

UC Davis +16 and some +16.5's, 2 hours before game time.

UC Davis does has something to play for tonight.

FYI

UC Davis has had a miserable year but can still make it into postseason play and be one of the eight teams in the conference tournament with wins in its next two games. The Aggies are just 5-23 overall this season but have played well down the stretch with four of their wins coming in the last six games. The Aggies came through with a huge 78-75 upset over Cal State Fullerton last Saturday and at 3-11 in conference play are a half game up on last place CS- Northridge.

1st meeting 1/28, Cal Poly 67-65, at UC Davis

Cal Poly leads the all-time series 25-13 and was the winner of the first meeting between these squads this season, pulling out a 67-65 victory on the road at the end of January. UC Davis has not won in San Luis Obispo since 2006.

A miracle in the making.......maybe

Locked In: Davis +15.5
Utah +17

Still looking at: USC +8
Wash St +10
San Diego -3.5

Kine what do your numbers say on the Idaho vs Hawaii game?

Something isn't right with this Pepperdine/SD game. I agree it is not a favorable matchup for the Waves plus they have been beat down pretty handily by this SD team 2X this year yet the line is a low -3.5 for SD. Everything in my mind points to another DD victory for SD yet the line has held steady with 70+% of the public on them. I'm staying away but damn, I really want to take what I think should be a easy victory for SD.

Last two: San Diego -3.5

Kine, will you be on citadel U129

UCDavis taking a pounding right now

but i was also on San Diego -3.5, glad to know youre backing them too

       

 

Yet another blowout loss.   GL in the future.  I don't have much appetite for betting on garbage teams.  System basically takes the worst teams.   Should be more performance based in the last 5-8 games in my opinion.   Numbers apparently were good in the past so maybe something to it.   

Looks to me like a win!  I've had the best of many of the lines for the close games (I work hard at it), so the system plays are >60% for me.

Good luck all for the next plays on tap.

you can't be this dumb? Of course they will be blowouts you moron.

Blowout loss my a$$! Wow - sweet late slide under the #! Woohoo!

HAHAHAHAH

fade the touts looking reaaallllll dumb.

UC Davis 

Nice win Kine,