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2012 Kempom System

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Posted: #976
Quote Originally Posted by fadethetouts:


I had to put the reverse curse on it.   It worked somehow.  If you notice, none of my prior posts in this thread were at all negative.   Cal Davis has always been a shady team.   Edward and his guys at RAS seem to always have their pulse in prior years.   Have no idea why they keep fouling when down by 20 except for US TO WIN!

OK, I'll believe in you.

Reverse jinx. 
 
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Posted: #977
I don't know why i even try to "cap" these games!!!!!!!!! I play 5 games .........of my own go 2-3 then play your system plays and get bailed out!!!   TOMORROW........  I'll sleep in, go to the gym, have lunch,take a walk, ..then...... play your system ONLY  and have a nice day and make ca$h. And not waste hours of time trying to pick winners!!!!    TY 
 
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Posted: #978
Quote Originally Posted by fadethetouts:

Yet another blowout loss.   GL in the future.  I don't have much appetite for betting on garbage teams.  System basically takes the worst teams.   Should be more performance based in the last 5-8 games in my opinion.   Numbers apparently were good in the past so maybe something to it.   

these babies who give up before the fucking game is finished.... 

how many times you been burned by a big fav during garbage time? yeah, a shit ton, and this is what its like being the actual moose....

i started the system the saturday the 18th:

14-8-2 ATS (+$520); 7-17 (+$1280).... wish i actually played the MLs.......


64%.... I'll take this all day..... 

 
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Posted: #979

guys, fyi, before i lead off to bed. I have a large underdog tennis win for tomorrow. Jjankovic will lose. I think Morita will be ready for her and will break her serves seeing she isnt good at them. Put it this way..a japanese pro tennis player at +550, ill take it. why? because its always the chinese or japanese who are most likely win an "impossible" match. Either ways, heads up..

Morita

 
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Posted: #980
Quote Originally Posted by Fools_Gold:


these babies who give up before the fucking game is finished.... 

how many times you been burned by a big fav during garbage time? yeah, a shit ton, and this is what its like being the actual moose....

i started the system the saturday the 18th:

14-8-2 ATS (+$520); 7-17 (+$1280).... wish i actually played the MLs.......


64%.... I'll take this all day..... 





Pretty much have a record like you, at 13-7-1.  Also, same philosophy, in college baskets, the game is NEVER over until the last second ticks.  Bench can be emptied, late fouls, last minute 3, etc.

Just look what happened in Kine's Utah play.  The Utes were awful for most of the game, and if you look just at the final score one would thing it was an "easy" dog cover.
 
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Posted: #981

Quote Originally Posted by bullmoose:

kp-might want to look at SD first half-their ATS is a crazy 17-3 bol

Great call.  I can go to bed making money on that game at half.  Another good system play also Kine.

Also had Michigan.  Only bummer was I decided tonight would be my first stab at USC this season.

 
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Posted: #982
Quote Originally Posted by Philbert:





Pretty much have a record like you, at 13-7-1.  Also, same philosophy, in college baskets, the game is NEVER over until the last second ticks.  Bench can be emptied, late fouls, last minute 3, etc.

Just look what happened in Kine's Utah play.  The Utes were awful for most of the game, and if you look just at the final score one would thing it was an "easy" dog cover.

Now the big question is.... when do WE start it next year.... 

now that WE ALL have the principles down, it is up to YOU and only YOU to decide when to start.... 

seems like the "pre system" did well.. so some guys may choose to start earlier

some may want to start when Kine starts.... 

some may want to use it only on a fuckin full moon... who knows....

but the big thing is... we know it.... there's no sense in bickering over half points, and smugness, almost plays, etc etc.... we know the principles... yeah it's all nice and dandy to track it, but honestly we really don't need the thread...

this is all KILLA KINE wants... is for us to use the system when we want... and how we want... if we only want DD dogs, so be it.... 

the man is merely giving us a guide to organize our degenerate thoughts when checking games from crappy conferences....

and oh my what a beast of a fuckin guide!! thanks Kine!

anyway, i know I am def putting at least 1/4 of a unit on the ML next year!!





 
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Posted: #983
KP - Keep hummin. 6-2 tonight. Losses on WashSt, Port. Wins on Kentucky 1st half, SanDiego 1st half, Michigan, Wash, UCD (nice) and E. Tn State 1st half.

Good night and good night. 
 
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Posted: #984
What you said below is the key!   There is a way to shop around and make this work to our advantage.

Keep up the good work, and the good conversation on the other games!

quote
Fools_Gold

but the big thing is... we know it.... there's no sense in bickering over half points, and smugness, almost plays, etc etc.... we know the principles... yeah it's all nice and dandy to track it, ....
 
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Posted: #985
Great calls and early leans KP.  Solid day, 4-0 for the first time in a long while with Utah, UC Davis, Louisiana Tech +6 and ML, and Idaho pending.  Hoping to close out 5-0 for the night!

I know we're not "supposed" to cap (read overthink) the system plays, but I really loved that LA Tech game and loaded up on the spread, ML, and ML parlayed with the over.
 
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Posted: #986
System:1-0; 12-8 overall

Almost system play Louisiana tech also easy winner

System plays via opening lines for me from 5dimes:
Dartmouth +9.5
*it must be stated here that I wrestle every season with whether or not to include the ivy league. It has performed fine in the system (not as well as the other conferences but it has made money each season). If you choose not to play it is perfectly understandable.  Besides the over-riding theory of bad teams have a hard time covering big lines, these games lack some of the other characteristics I like to have in a system play. Either way good luck with whatever you decide.

Almost: 
Brown +14.5 (ivy again)
Conference tourney almosts:
Towson +12
Appy st +6
Citadel +6
Canisius +7
*It must be said that I don't like any of the almost conference tourney games (see more below)

My other plays I'll be looking at more closely:
Wilmington +2.5 (I can't quit them, hope I forget this is an 11am start)
College of charleston -6 (been fading apps st for weeks for big money, hard to see a reason to stop now)
Western Carolina -6 (don't shoot the messenger it's just a horrible matchup for citadel, I'll probably stay away out of respect for citadel's effort, we can discuss more in the morning)
Georgia southern ML (if their starting guards aren't completely out of gas, I love this play)
Marist -5.5 (shhhhh!)
Western Michigan ML (hope those punks from central sucks it up one last time for old times sake)

 
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Posted: #987
Quote Originally Posted by kdawgy:

Great calls and early leans KP.  Solid day, 4-0 for the first time in a long while with Utah, UC Davis, Louisiana Tech +6 and ML, and Idaho pending.  Hoping to close out 5-0 for the night!

I know we're not "supposed" to cap (read overthink) the system plays, but I really loved that LA Tech game and loaded up on the spread, ML, and ML parlayed with the over.

Love to hear it! Congrats on a giant day!
 
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Posted: #988
I did get  6 .5 on L.Tech,didnt see your FH plays,but took Rutgers sec.half at an adjusted game line of +11.5,took Oregon -6 sec half and over 76,did finally try USC also,cant wait until conf.tour.,betting against them,
then UC Davis-SD-Mich,not a bad day and about 30 mins of capping,hate spending all day on it,
took Canisuis+6.5 already,thought about those Ivy ones,rest can wait until tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #989
just looked at lines,W.Car.is now -6.5,if KP is right might want to do it early.
 
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Posted: #990
Nice night KP....   
 
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Posted: #991
Dartmouth is now +8.5
 
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Posted: #992
Quote Originally Posted by roundrock9:

Dartmouth is now +8.5
this is actually a good sign - i think kp would agree - i'll probably play dartmouth - awaiting kp or any more line movement - bol rr9 - clem1
 
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Posted: #993
Hey Kine,

Perhaps a new thread for a new month?

RT2
 
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Posted: #994
Kind, Citadel Under?
 
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Posted: #995
Hey Guys,
Going to be out for the morning but hope to be back on ASAP to discuss the games.

First: I'll be on Dartmouth, hoping to get back to +9 but I don't feel great about it as I'm always uneasy about the Ivy league games (even though I really have no reason to be)

Locked in plays:
Georgia Southern ML (-112)
Western Michigan ML (-130) (just think both of those teams win - pretty simple handicapping) 
Marist -5 (as I'm not sure it will get much better and if it does I'll probably add on to it a bit)
Wilmington +3 (toss-up game and if they haven't quit on Coach Peterson I think they win this game, that being said, if they happen to have a nice sized lead at halftime, I'll probably look to middle it)

Don't like the Citadel under as I think Western will control tempo to a certain extent and they are a horrible matchup for Citadel.  Wouldn't be surprised if Citadel kept it close but at -7 and 125.5, both are a no-play for me at the moment.  Important to remember that even though Western is a terrible matchup for Citadel, it was the Western blowout of Citadel (think they out offensive rebounded them 28-8 if I remembering right) that changed the end of Citadel's season and led them to be committed to playing hard the rest of the year etc.  We should get their best effort and performance and I wouldn't blame anyone who sided with Citadel.

Be back on in a few hours to discuss more and the other games that just got lines.
 
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Posted: #996
Added play: college of charleston -5.5 2nd half 
 
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Posted: #997
Quote Originally Posted by fadethetouts:

Yet another blowout loss.   GL in the future.  I don't have much appetite for betting on garbage teams.  System basically takes the worst teams.   

Ha! This guy is exactly why the system works.

In effect, with a point spread, there is no "worse" team. And if one team is perceived to be the worse team even with a point spread, then you can assume they are getting more points than they should be.
 
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Posted: #998
I would still prefer to only take the teams when the line moves in our favor. It means that the public is pounding the favorite.

But I guess you could look at it the other way. Perhaps Dartmouth has dropped from +9.5 to +8.5 because the sharps are on Dartmouth. Still, some value has been lost and over the course of a few games, the extra point here and there can make the difference between winning and losing.
 
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Posted: #999

Professor, Canisius up to +7.5.  I'm kind of liking it, what do you think Sir?

 

 

 

 
 
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Posted: #1000
Quote Originally Posted by SweetDickWormy:

Professor, Canisius up to +7.5.  I'm kind of liking it, what do you think Sir?

 

 

 


Definitely fits many of the system profile and Niagara is a "bad" team, I'd prefer to be getting points in this game but don't think I'll play it (yet)
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