Kine, when you said UCNG beat CC two games ago without Simpson I looked the box score up and noticed Armstrong went off for 30 so I laid off figuring no way Armstrong would score 30 tonight. They need Simpson to win.
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Kine, when you said UCNG beat CC two games ago without Simpson I looked the box score up and noticed Armstrong went off for 30 so I laid off figuring no way Armstrong would score 30 tonight. They need Simpson to win.
UNCG is 6-2 ATS in the last three weeks, that is the very definition of "substance" the opposite of "hype."
....
It just makes absolutely no sense to say you not buying into Greensboro hype when they have been one of the best teams in the country ATS for the entire month of February and yet they are still getting no respect from linemakers.
Kine - appreciate the write-ups, win or lose.
Question for you: What evidence is there that historical ATS performance is predictive of future ATS performance? That is, if Team X is 6-2 this month, how do those teams do ATS in the next game? (Or next handful of games?)
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Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
UNCG is 6-2 ATS in the last three weeks, that is the very definition of "substance" the opposite of "hype."
....
It just makes absolutely no sense to say you not buying into Greensboro hype when they have been one of the best teams in the country ATS for the entire month of February and yet they are still getting no respect from linemakers.
Kine - appreciate the write-ups, win or lose.
Question for you: What evidence is there that historical ATS performance is predictive of future ATS performance? That is, if Team X is 6-2 this month, how do those teams do ATS in the next game? (Or next handful of games?)
Kine, when you said UCNG beat CC two games ago without Simpson I looked the box score up and noticed Armstrong went off for 30 so I laid off figuring no way Armstrong would score 30 tonight. They need Simpson to win.
Always better to have your best player and top scorer, on this we do agree
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Quote Originally Posted by mtndew146:
Kine, when you said UCNG beat CC two games ago without Simpson I looked the box score up and noticed Armstrong went off for 30 so I laid off figuring no way Armstrong would score 30 tonight. They need Simpson to win.
Always better to have your best player and top scorer, on this we do agree
Question for you: What evidence is there that historical ATS performance is predictive of future ATS performance? That is, if Team X is 6-2 this month, how do those teams do ATS in the next game? (Or next handful of games?)
None at all for a million reasons, the point is that ATS is the ultimate result for all gamblers (and the only way we get paid) so to look at a team and say "I don't buy the hype" when they have cashed tickets in 6 of their last 8 games is crazy.
The ATS record has no predictive value at all on the "outcome" of the next game, but you can certainly look at the previous lines, ats records, etc. as one of many ways to find "undervalued" and "overvalued" teams.
You can "not believe the hype" about this Citadel team as well (as if there would hype around Citadel) but that hasn't stopped them from cashing 4 of their last 5 games for me, and ultimately that is what I'm in it for, making money and getting the cover. The only scoreboard I know of that keeps track of that is ATS.
So, to answer the question again, no results-based predictive value whatsoever, but can lend all kinds of insight into the "overvaluing" or "undervaluing" of a team.
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Quote Originally Posted by dmmx3:
Kine - appreciate the write-ups, win or lose.
Question for you: What evidence is there that historical ATS performance is predictive of future ATS performance? That is, if Team X is 6-2 this month, how do those teams do ATS in the next game? (Or next handful of games?)
None at all for a million reasons, the point is that ATS is the ultimate result for all gamblers (and the only way we get paid) so to look at a team and say "I don't buy the hype" when they have cashed tickets in 6 of their last 8 games is crazy.
The ATS record has no predictive value at all on the "outcome" of the next game, but you can certainly look at the previous lines, ats records, etc. as one of many ways to find "undervalued" and "overvalued" teams.
You can "not believe the hype" about this Citadel team as well (as if there would hype around Citadel) but that hasn't stopped them from cashing 4 of their last 5 games for me, and ultimately that is what I'm in it for, making money and getting the cover. The only scoreboard I know of that keeps track of that is ATS.
So, to answer the question again, no results-based predictive value whatsoever, but can lend all kinds of insight into the "overvaluing" or "undervaluing" of a team.
I couldn't find any for today. And only found one for tomorrow. Is that right?
[/Quote ] I think your right......I think i found only ...1........is it 541...n Ill+10???? kempon...#340 vs 266?? these # could change as well as the points spread....I,m seeing 9, 91/2.. the conferences qualifys, it,s over 6 1/2 the ratings should not change that much ..........please correct me if i,m wrong.......most of the time I am!!!!
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[Quote: Originally Posted by composite]
I couldn't find any for today. And only found one for tomorrow. Is that right?
[/Quote ] I think your right......I think i found only ...1........is it 541...n Ill+10???? kempon...#340 vs 266?? these # could change as well as the points spread....I,m seeing 9, 91/2.. the conferences qualifys, it,s over 6 1/2 the ratings should not change that much ..........please correct me if i,m wrong.......most of the time I am!!!!
There is one system play tomorrow, Northern Illinois +9 (opening line for me on 5dimes).
Let's get this out of the way now:
1. No, I don't know if you should lock this game in now, but I can tell you that it opened in Vegas this afternoon at +10.5 so appears to be going down of course, so you might want to lock it in as soon as you can. But feel free to wait and see if you can get a better number if there is "buyback" on Eastern Michigan.
2. There is NO POINT AT ALL in debating these particular "system" plays. We know there are tons of reasons to not want to bet on Northern Illinois, they suck bigtime, you aren't tell us anything we don't already know. There will always be TONS of reasons to not bet EVERY SINGLE system play, my suggestion is that you either make the plays or don't - but mixing and matching them never works out. In fact, I've cashed two fairly large wagers in a row with Eastern Michigan so my first inclination would be to want to back them again.
*You can feel free to agree or disagree with any of the other plays a post in this thread however, just make sure you bring info to back up your argument.
3. There is NO POINT AT ALL in repeating the play over and over again in this thread. It took me about 20 seconds to look over the entire card and spot this one play, if anyone asks what the system play is, please refer them to the first post of this thread.
4. There is NO POINT AT ALL in coming back into this thread and crying about Northern Illinois performance, or saying "this game is dead" or any other variation of the crybaby tactics that are found throughout this forum. You have already been warned that NIU sucks so feel free to not bet it at all, in fact, those of us using the system would prefer you not, or better yet, tell others NIU sucks and see if you can get on EMU so the line improves for us.
Now, for the more important part of this thread, here are some other games that the system guidelines would suggest we take a closer look at: Keep in mind that these numbers will probably improve the closer we get to tipoff: Ball St +4.5 CMU +5.5 SIU +6.5 Bradley +15.5 Santa Barbara +8.5 Citadel +4
Again, I am not saying that there are plays at all, I'm saying that they are fairly close to one or more the principle of the system and should be given a closer examination
Here are the games I'm going to be looking more closely at myself: Citadel +4 Santa Barbara +8.5 Riverside ML Southern Miss -1.5 ODU +3.5 George Mason -2.5 (of course I normally play very few games per day so this list will probably shrink quickly)
Good luck with whatever you decide
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There is one system play tomorrow, Northern Illinois +9 (opening line for me on 5dimes).
Let's get this out of the way now:
1. No, I don't know if you should lock this game in now, but I can tell you that it opened in Vegas this afternoon at +10.5 so appears to be going down of course, so you might want to lock it in as soon as you can. But feel free to wait and see if you can get a better number if there is "buyback" on Eastern Michigan.
2. There is NO POINT AT ALL in debating these particular "system" plays. We know there are tons of reasons to not want to bet on Northern Illinois, they suck bigtime, you aren't tell us anything we don't already know. There will always be TONS of reasons to not bet EVERY SINGLE system play, my suggestion is that you either make the plays or don't - but mixing and matching them never works out. In fact, I've cashed two fairly large wagers in a row with Eastern Michigan so my first inclination would be to want to back them again.
*You can feel free to agree or disagree with any of the other plays a post in this thread however, just make sure you bring info to back up your argument.
3. There is NO POINT AT ALL in repeating the play over and over again in this thread. It took me about 20 seconds to look over the entire card and spot this one play, if anyone asks what the system play is, please refer them to the first post of this thread.
4. There is NO POINT AT ALL in coming back into this thread and crying about Northern Illinois performance, or saying "this game is dead" or any other variation of the crybaby tactics that are found throughout this forum. You have already been warned that NIU sucks so feel free to not bet it at all, in fact, those of us using the system would prefer you not, or better yet, tell others NIU sucks and see if you can get on EMU so the line improves for us.
Now, for the more important part of this thread, here are some other games that the system guidelines would suggest we take a closer look at: Keep in mind that these numbers will probably improve the closer we get to tipoff: Ball St +4.5 CMU +5.5 SIU +6.5 Bradley +15.5 Santa Barbara +8.5 Citadel +4
Again, I am not saying that there are plays at all, I'm saying that they are fairly close to one or more the principle of the system and should be given a closer examination
Here are the games I'm going to be looking more closely at myself: Citadel +4 Santa Barbara +8.5 Riverside ML Southern Miss -1.5 ODU +3.5 George Mason -2.5 (of course I normally play very few games per day so this list will probably shrink quickly)
[Quote: Originally Posted by mtndew146] Riblet bet on GTown so it aint like he is a genius. [/Wow you know I have read all of KP plays and the one day I say 8-0 everyone is all upset. Not coming in your forum talking shit just saying the better team won today. And yes I agree that UNCG was short handed.
Yes I be on Georgetown and that was a terrible play..
Pitch-black I told u depaul was not the average road dog? How is the coming into your thread bashing u?
Come on guys everyone's entitled to n opinion]
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[Quote: Originally Posted by mtndew146] Riblet bet on GTown so it aint like he is a genius. [/Wow you know I have read all of KP plays and the one day I say 8-0 everyone is all upset. Not coming in your forum talking shit just saying the better team won today. And yes I agree that UNCG was short handed.
Yes I be on Georgetown and that was a terrible play..
Pitch-black I told u depaul was not the average road dog? How is the coming into your thread bashing u?
Guys I have read this whole thread and I am pretty sure I get everything that has been going on. Can you answer me this though... How do I find the KenPom Rankings????? And how has the system been this year??? I saw the record you had the first year you did this was like 37-10
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Guys I have read this whole thread and I am pretty sure I get everything that has been going on. Can you answer me this though... How do I find the KenPom Rankings????? And how has the system been this year??? I saw the record you had the first year you did this was like 37-10
kine, any concern that eastern michigan is somehow in first place in their division and only one game up making this an important game for them. usually the teams we are playing have very little to play for this late in the year. i am still playing the game alng with central michigan. was just curious your thoughts as this looks to be an unusual situation for the system. good luck with your plays today and thank you as always for your thoughts and work
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kine, any concern that eastern michigan is somehow in first place in their division and only one game up making this an important game for them. usually the teams we are playing have very little to play for this late in the year. i am still playing the game alng with central michigan. was just curious your thoughts as this looks to be an unusual situation for the system. good luck with your plays today and thank you as always for your thoughts and work
kine, any concern that eastern michigan is somehow in first place in their division and only one game up making this an important game for them. usually the teams we are playing have very little to play for this late in the year. i am still playing the game alng with central michigan. was just curious your thoughts as this looks to be an unusual situation for the system. good luck with your plays today and thank you as always for your thoughts and work
First, superb question. While I would prefer there be some possible "give up" in the teams we play against, I've found no direct connection that suggest that this type of play hits at any lower of a rate. It makes sense to a certain extent as you would assume the line would be higher than If they were at the bottom of their conference. In fact, off the top of my head, I can't remember the last time emu was this big a favorite, which should tell you something about this line. Also, niu fought very hard in their bracketbuster game so we can hope they bring that type of effort into tonight's as well.
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Quote Originally Posted by weimar74:
kine, any concern that eastern michigan is somehow in first place in their division and only one game up making this an important game for them. usually the teams we are playing have very little to play for this late in the year. i am still playing the game alng with central michigan. was just curious your thoughts as this looks to be an unusual situation for the system. good luck with your plays today and thank you as always for your thoughts and work
First, superb question. While I would prefer there be some possible "give up" in the teams we play against, I've found no direct connection that suggest that this type of play hits at any lower of a rate. It makes sense to a certain extent as you would assume the line would be higher than If they were at the bottom of their conference. In fact, off the top of my head, I can't remember the last time emu was this big a favorite, which should tell you something about this line. Also, niu fought very hard in their bracketbuster game so we can hope they bring that type of effort into tonight's as well.
Amazing work. Just shot you a friend request. Interested to know if you're scanning games manually and comparing to Kenpom, or if you have some automation in place. I've put something together to highlight these games and it's all but 100% automated. Certainly willing to send your way.
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Kine,
Amazing work. Just shot you a friend request. Interested to know if you're scanning games manually and comparing to Kenpom, or if you have some automation in place. I've put something together to highlight these games and it's all but 100% automated. Certainly willing to send your way.
No harm meant by that man but if u believe so that's fine too..
You may mean no harm, but it is not appreciated by anyone when you pop into a thread when you had the other side of a play and make a comment. You have your own thread to boast in
You know now. Others have pointed it. Do not do it again. Pretty simple
Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
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Quote Originally Posted by riblet:
No harm meant by that man but if u believe so that's fine too..
You may mean no harm, but it is not appreciated by anyone when you pop into a thread when you had the other side of a play and make a comment. You have your own thread to boast in
You know now. Others have pointed it. Do not do it again. Pretty simple
Any of the leans that you are going with Kine? I like The Citadel vs App St but it doesnt qualify under your system.. What are you thinking with this game?
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Any of the leans that you are going with Kine? I like The Citadel vs App St but it doesnt qualify under your system.. What are you thinking with this game?
Any of the leans that you are going with Kine? I like The Citadel vs App St but it doesnt qualify under your system.. What are you thinking with this game?
At work so can't dig as deeply a I'd like till about 4pm central time but can say that citadels coach RIPPED the entire team a new one after the western Carolina game (which in honestly is a horrible matchup for citadel) and the entire team basically pledged to not get out worked the rest of the season. I was on them the last game when they won straight up as DD dogs and to be honest, there isn't a ton separating these two teams. Citadel just needs a few more things to go right (or maybe not go wrong), I.e. foul trouble etc. The value isn't that w are getting a great line with citadel (we aren't) the value is the effort and heart I believe citadel will play with (and appy st coach sucks)
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Quote Originally Posted by waltes1:
Any of the leans that you are going with Kine? I like The Citadel vs App St but it doesnt qualify under your system.. What are you thinking with this game?
At work so can't dig as deeply a I'd like till about 4pm central time but can say that citadels coach RIPPED the entire team a new one after the western Carolina game (which in honestly is a horrible matchup for citadel) and the entire team basically pledged to not get out worked the rest of the season. I was on them the last game when they won straight up as DD dogs and to be honest, there isn't a ton separating these two teams. Citadel just needs a few more things to go right (or maybe not go wrong), I.e. foul trouble etc. The value isn't that w are getting a great line with citadel (we aren't) the value is the effort and heart I believe citadel will play with (and appy st coach sucks)
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