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2nd half betting...The way to winning

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Posted: #1

Gambling on sports is very tough, but what Ive come to realize is if you are patient enough, winning isnt that hard and betting the 2nd half is why....

It doesnt happen with every game, but if you sit back and wait, 2nd half betting usually tells you the outcome of the game....

For example with many games last night...

E Carolina game...ODU was up 2 at half and 2nd half was -4 or -4.5..However, game lines was -7.5 or 8...therefore books were only needing a 6 point ODU win...ECU covers 2nd half and game

NW game...GTech was down 5 at half as a 3 point favorite...2nd half was GTech -2.5 which had them losing the game by 2...NW wins the 2nd half

Zona game...Zona up 4 at half as 4 point dog...Zona was +2.5 or +3 at half which books had them winning the game...Zona wins the 2nd half

Duke game...Duke down 19 at half as a 6, 7 or 8 point dog...Duke only -1 2nd half which has them as a 18 point dog...OSU wins 2nd half

Oregon game...Oregon was tied at half as a 17 or 18 point favorite...2nd half was only 9.5 which didnt even have them winning by DD...UTEP covers 2nd half

St Louis game...St Louis only up 4 at half after being up 12 with 4 min left and as a 9.5 favorite....2nd half was St Louis only -4 having them as only a 8 point favorite...Loy Mar wins 2nd half

 

As you can see, sometimes it happens very often in 1 night, sometimes not as much....but, if you are patient and wait for obvious lines to happen, gambling in the 2nd half is the best way to win money in my opinion

 
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Posted: #2
im not seeing any trends similarities in any of these games. i do agree that second half betting is a lot easier because you get a feel for how the teams are playing and what not, plus injuries come into play
 
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Posted: #3
I do this alot with over / unders.  If a game went way under for the first half.  Take the under 2nd half also.  Vegas always juices the line up so the middle is smaller.  Under hits 80% of the time.
 
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by las8:

im not seeing any trends similarities in any of these games. i do agree that second half betting is a lot easier because you get a feel for how the teams are playing and what not, plus injuries come into play


I'm a little confused too.  I THINK what he's trying to say is that when the book gives you a weak line for the second half, where the favorite wouldn't cover even if the 2nd half hit, then you should take the dog in the second half.  But even that only applies to a couple of his examples. 

Would you care to state your system and THEN show examples LetGoPack?  And I think it would also help clear things up if you stated all of your examples using the favorite as the example, it's confusing when half start by stating a team is a dog that is covering and half state the line based on a favorite.
 
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Posted: #5
sometimes when a good team is losing in the first half and you think they can cover the the original spread it makes a easy 2nd half to predict.
 
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Posted: #6

Quote Originally Posted by las8:

im not seeing any trends similarities in any of these games. i do agree that second half betting is a lot easier because you get a feel for how the teams are playing and what not, plus injuries come into play

 

Not seeing any trends???   Ok, I will try to make it more simple for you.

You also didnt understand why I said Virginia would cover last night either.  When betting, the LINE is everything.

Lets see if you understand then.

ECU game 2nd half line means DOG covers for the game....DOG wins 2nd half and covers the game

NW game 2nd half line means DOG covers for the game....DOG wins 2nd half and covers the game

ZONA game 2nd half line means DOG covers for the game...DOG wins 2nd half and covers the game

St Louis game 2nd half line means DOG covers for the game...DOG wins 2nd half and covers for the game

Oregon game 2nd half line means DOG covers the game by half the opening line....DOG wins the 2nd half and covers for the game

 

Now do you see a trend or similarity????

I think I did provide example with all the games.

If you read what I said, it doesnt happen all the time, or in every game.  BUT, if you sit and wait the obvious lines will come out.

 

 

 
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Posted: #7

Quote Originally Posted by jabbadon:

sometimes when a good team is losing in the first half and you think they can cover the the original spread it makes a easy 2nd half to predict.

 

Thats my favorite thing to look for.  Happens only a few times a week, but love finding a favorite in the 8-12 point range down 7-8 at half only needing to come back to win the game. 

 
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Posted: #8

Quote Originally Posted by kdawgy:



I'm a little confused too.  I THINK what he's trying to say is that when the book gives you a weak line for the second half, where the favorite wouldn't cover even if the 2nd half hit, then you should take the dog in the second half.  But even that only applies to a couple of his examples. 

Would you care to state your system and THEN show examples LetGoPack?  And I think it would also help clear things up if you stated all of your examples using the favorite as the example, it's confusing when half start by stating a team is a dog that is covering and half state the line based on a favorite.

 

If St Louis is a 9.5 favorite, meaning they have to win the game by 10, and are up 4 at half, why is the 2nd half only -4???  Because the DOG wins

If Gtech is a 3 point favorite and down 5 at half, why does the 2nd half line have them losing by 3???  Because the dog wins

If ODU is a 8 point favorite and up 2 at half, why is the 2nd half line only 4??  Because the dog covers

If NWST is a 4 point favorite and down 4 at half, why does the 2nd half have them still losing the game???  Because the dog wins.

If UTEP is a 17 or 18 point favorite, and the half time line has them not even winning by double digits???  Because the dog wins

 

Not exactly sure why you think I didnt explain it well enough

 
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Posted: #9

LOL at this thread. if you think you can get winners capping 2nd halves, please indulge us with a tracking thread & your wisdom on this system.

fact is, half time lines will simply mirror the game line where possible. When not possible, the main goal is to prevent a large middle or prevent players stuck on a bad line from hedging out. simple as that.

Once in a while, an odd 2nd half line will give you a winner, when vegas sets up a huge middle. then you know vegas is not afraid of being middled. but that situation is very uncommon, only happens when a 15 point underdog is up by 15 at the half.

 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by joshfactor:

LOL at this thread. if you think you can get winners capping 2nd halves, please indulge us with a tracking thread & your wisdom on this system.

fact is, half time lines will simply mirror the game line where possible. When not possible, the main goal is to prevent a large middle or prevent players stuck on a bad line from hedging out. simple as that.

Once in a while, an odd 2nd half line will give you a winner, when vegas sets up a huge middle. then you know vegas is not afraid of being middled. but that situation is very uncommon, only happens when a 15 point underdog is up by 15 at the half.

 

 

Everyone has their own opinions, but I think you are wrong

28-10 last week betting 2nd halves with examples I just provided.

I dont think its hard, but maybe Im just getting lucky.

I think I provided easy examples last night.  Only the ECU game was close, but they were actually winning the game by 7 with 10 minutes left and gave up a 14-2 run.

I mean even with the Duke game last night.

Duke down 19 at half and only -1???  OSU thanks

In my eyes, the 2nd half line is the easiest bet

 
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Posted: #11
do you believe in aliens?
 
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Posted: #12
I understand 100% what you're saying bro without you even having to give the follow up examples...i love the 2nd half betting..i'll have to follow/try this more closely....I didn't think that profoundly about it before either ( last night I fell victim to taking (Iowa 2nd half..they were -1.5 game and down 14 at half....minus 4 2nd half has them losing the game by 10 still...i jumped on it...they lost by 18lol....i took duke 2nd half too.....these picks arent the ones you would want to take because obviously they aren't following what vegas has told you should happen with the original line...i will be rethinking my 2nd half bets more closely from here on out.)
 
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Posted: #13
Letgopack.. Thank you for input.. Now let me tell u think.. Any sports gambling lines tells you 70% of the outcome.. Basketball there is few teams comes from behind and covers in 2nd half .. Dogs covers more than fav ..
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

 

If St Louis is a 9.5 favorite, meaning they have to win the game by 10, and are up 4 at half, why is the 2nd half only -4???  Because the DOG wins

You are talking about a difference in the spread of 1 possession, that really isn't relevant here. The opening line was less than 9, and if they were up by 5 at half the spread would have been 4-5 to cover both.... I could see the argument that the line is made to bait the public into getting a slightly better full spread via half-time betting, but the difference is 1 possession what else could the 2H spread have been?

If Gtech is a 3 point favorite and down 5 at half, why does the 2nd half line have them losing by 3???  Because the dog wins

GT opened as a 1 point dog, closed as a 3 point favorite. Plus with the way NW was playing if they gave NW more than +3 they would have been hammered at 2H. The lines are made to get 50/50 action, and down by 5 at half on a 1-point dog when the lines opened and -3 2H means they lose by 2...within 1 possession of the line.

If ODU is a 8 point favorite and up 2 at half, why is the 2nd half line only 4??  Because the dog covers

1 possession again, you can't KNOW who is going to cover, you can make an educated decision, but these lines are spot on, you can't give a dog too many 2H points in a close game and not get pounded on it, keeping the 2H spread within covering distance for the favor.

If NWST is a 4 point favorite and down 4 at half, why does the 2nd half have them still losing the game???  Because the dog wins.

A 4 point favorite is a 2 possession favorite, and they're down by 2 possessions at half, thus the line is -3 2H basically making the 2 possessions back from where they were 2 possessions down, don't really see red flags.... You can't give a 4 point dog who's up by 4 at half a bunch of points, if it was a 2H pk I think that indicated the dog wins outright, really I think all of these games were a tossup you've mentioned.

If UTEP is a 17 or 18 point favorite, and the half time line has them not even winning by double digits???  Because the dog wins

What else would the line be? Tied at half and -9.5 2H as 17pt favorites? What is vegas going to do, make them -17 2H? Who would take that bet? Obviously the dog gets pounded in that situation, they are simply looking for equal action on both sides. 

This is basketball, and anyone can go on a run, maybe this small sample size you have gathered from last night supports your claim, but we need a much larger sample size to derive a system play. Not saying your wrong, but what lines would you have made for the 2H had you been the linesmaker? 

 

Not exactly sure why you think I didnt explain it well enough



 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

 

Thats my favorite thing to look for.  Happens only a few times a week, but love finding a favorite in the 8-12 point range down 7-8 at half only needing to come back to win the game. 

That situation always jumps out. The other is a bit more subtle so I'm going to look for it a bit and see. Nice find. 

 
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Posted: #16
Threadstarter give it up, there is no trend, there were games that didnt end that way last night also that you could have posted but didnt. This is another suggestion as to "the books know the outcome of a game" and they dont. Lines dont tell you who is going to win neither do they suggest such. While people keep trying to "figure" out what the book or line is saying, the book is trying to figure out what people are thinking.
 
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Posted: #17

Quote Originally Posted by jtoler:

Threadstarter give it up, there is no trend, there were games that didnt end that way last night also that you could have posted but didnt. This is another suggestion as to "the books know the outcome of a game" and they dont. Lines dont tell you who is going to win neither do they suggest such. While people keep trying to "figure" out what the book or line is saying, the book is trying to figure out what people are thinking.

 

Which ones didnt?? 

Of the examples I gave, please provide examples that were the opposite??

 

Can you provide 1 example that the favorite was losing at half-time last night, the 2nd half line had the DOG winning the game, and the favorite came back to win the 2nd half and cover???

 

Keep looking, because it didnt happen...

My book had Illinois coming back to win the game, which means it didnt fall under my pattern

 
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Posted: #18
Just starting posting your 2H system picks. If they're winning, you'll get tons of adoring fans.
 
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Posted: #19

Quote Originally Posted by composite:

Just starting posting your 2H system picks. If they're winning, you'll get tons of adoring fans.

 

Im not looking for fans or followers...I come here for advice and to give advice when I notice something that is winning....

And even when you TRY to help people and point something out, its never good enough

 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by coolfool:

do you believe in aliens?

 

Says the moron who believes HOUSTON will win it all in CFB hahaha

 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by LETGOPACK1234:

 

Im not looking for fans or followers...I come here for advice and to give advice when I notice something that is winning....

And even when you TRY to help people and point something out, its never good enough

 

 

It's the hard headed, useless, ignorant people that don't want to listen....do your thing, and foreget the idiots..

 
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Posted: #22

I have read/heard that it is best to take the 2nd half side that is giving you extra value over the game line...For example, a team that is -10 before the game is losing by 5 at half. Say the 2nd half spread has this team at -5.

That means that you are getting a -10 Fave pregame, now you are getting this same team as a -5 Fave for the game. If you believe that Vegas is usually pretty close to the final outcome with the spread then this theory seems to have a good basis as opposed to what LetsGoPack is saying.

Not bashing anyone just making an observation and trying to contribute some info.

 
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Posted: #23

i can tell you a 2nd half line, the minute it goes to half..... it might be off .5 but the key to 2nd half lines  is this

bluff line movement   which i can explain

favorite  away resuts are very different from home favorite results..

i have charts for nfl,cbb, cfb,wnba, nba,  

hitting about 55% to 58%     best of luck in 2nd half betting. they are a lot more fun i think

 
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Posted: #24

ennis,

could you elaborate a little bit more?

 
 
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Posted: #25
Good luck 

Tried that system it did not work consistently easy to look back after the game is over.

Hey post some games and try it but its a waste of time your system has no edge.Just trying to save you some time .
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