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Anyone think Nova has a prayer?

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Posted: #26
I'll be taking the points with Nova.
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

 
 
I wrote this in another thread:
 
Look at all the tight games UNC played and their losses and you will see a common theme:  the other team had great gaurd play, espeically from the point guard.... what does Villanova have?  Great gaurd play.  Villnova's biggest weakness is lack of size.  UNC does not have overwhelming size.  This is giong to be closer than alot of people think.
 
Then again, UNC looks like they are clicking on all cylinders right now.  Their defensive rotation to gaurd the 3-point shot yesterday against oklahomo was impressive.  If Villanova gets in foul trouble or struggles from 3 point land, they are in trouble and will lose by double digits.   
 
I am going with villanova once the public pumps up the spread to 8 or 8.5.... but don't listen to me, i am having a shitty tournament....best of luck.


Thompson 6'8
Ed Davis 6'11
Hansbrough 6'9
Zeller 7'0

That's 4 players equal to or taller than Nova's biggest man Cunningham at 6'8

UNC has been featuring 2 or 3 of those guys at a time lately... makes it tough on the boards especially when Danny Green is in as well
 
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Posted: #28
That being said I did not think MSU would beat Nova, however I think that this one is a lot more lopsided at first glance than that game...
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

 
 
I wrote this in another thread:
 
Look at all the tight games UNC played and their losses and you will see a common theme:  the other team had great gaurd play, espeically from the point guard.... what does Villanova have?  Great gaurd play.  Villnova's biggest weakness is lack of size.  UNC does not have overwhelming size.  This is giong to be closer than alot of people think.
 
Then again, UNC looks like they are clicking on all cylinders right now.  Their defensive rotation to gaurd the 3-point shot yesterday against oklahomo was impressive.  If Villanova gets in foul trouble or struggles from 3 point land, they are in trouble and will lose by double digits.   
 
I am going with villanova once the public pumps up the spread to 8 or 8.5.... but don't listen to me, i am having a shitty tournament....best of luck.

I agree Bob. I hope I can get 9...

 
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Posted: #30
 
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Posted: #31
Villanova is either equal at the guard position, or they are better than UNC.

...inside it's not even close though as UNC will pound the boards and i think Deon Thompson could score 25+ points. Pena and Cunningham will be in foul trouble all night, imo, and that will make the 3pt shots that much more important which will lead to many 1 and done's on the offensive end for 'Nova.

...i have been a 'Nova hater all year long, though
 
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Posted: #32
of course its the final 4 ,but i think they will lose but cover that infated spread
 
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Posted: #33

Quote Originally Posted by woopdurritis:



Thompson 6'8
Ed Davis 6'11
Hansbrough 6'9
Zeller 7'0

That's 4 players equal to or taller than Nova's biggest man Cunningham at 6'8

UNC has been featuring 2 or 3 of those guys at a time lately... makes it tough on the boards especially when Danny Green is in as well

The key word was "overwhelming" size.... Zeller is an offensive stiff, and does not have a solid body to be able to dominate the paint.  Ed Davis will be solid on the the defensive end, but once again will not dominate on the offensive end and draw fouls. 

When i say "overwhelming", I am talking about the solid low post pressence that Villanova would have no chance at stopping and draw lots of fouls.  Hansborough is stoppable in the post.

Villanova was able to handle the massive space consuming body of Dejaun Blair, who has better low post footwork than any of the carolina guys...

Though I agree, having all 3 of those guys on at once might be tough to handle at time, I feel the team rebounding of villanova can handle it.

 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by bob696969:

The key word was "overwhelming" size.... Zeller is an offensive stiff, and does not have a solid body to be able to dominate the paint.  Ed Davis will be solid on the the defensive end, but once again will not dominate on the offensive end and draw fouls. 

When i say "overwhelming", I am talking about the solid low post pressence that Villanova would have no chance at stopping and draw lots of fouls.  Hansborough is stoppable in the post.

Villanova was able to handle the massive space consuming body of Dejaun Blair, who has better low post footwork than any of the carolina guys...

Though I agree, having all 3 of those guys on at once might be tough to handle at time, I feel the team rebounding of villanova can handle it.



Dejaun Blair is only 6'7   His weight is the only thing impressive about him listed at 265.  When I saw him I was VERY unimpressed with his offensive game.  Obviously if he gets an offensive board the stick back is easy (90%) of his points.  He is a bad shooter from anywhere outside of 3 feet, and as far as good footwork the only thing I saw him do was a couple of reverse layups because he wouldn't take it up strong. 

UNC has a few players taller and equal in weight...

I think UNC is a lot better OVERALL on the boards than Pitt...
 
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Posted: #35
Blair's best games this year were clearly not in the tournament IMO
 
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Posted: #36

Quote Originally Posted by woopdurritis:



Dejaun Blair is only 6'7   His weight is the only thing impressive about him listed at 265.  When I saw him I was VERY unimpressed with his offensive game.  Obviously if he gets an offensive board the stick back is easy (90%) of his points.  He is a bad shooter from anywhere outside of 3 feet, and as far as good footwork the only thing I saw him do was a couple of reverse layups because he wouldn't take it up strong. 

UNC has a few players taller and equal in weight...

I think UNC is a lot better OVERALL on the boards than Pitt...

-------------

Yeah, UNC is better on the boards overall compared to Pitt, and with so much attention on the big fellas, you can count on the pesky Danny Green sneaking in and getting some offensive rebounds as well....

UNC could very well blow them out!  I am making my pick based on the history of this years results.  UNC failed to cover many times with a spread of -10 or less because of great guard play from the other team (eg. loss to maryland, 3 point win over miami, loss to florida state, tight win over florida state, loss to wake, loss to BC). 

I don't have time right now, but I challenge you to see if you can find a game with a less than double digit spread where the the other team had dominant guards and UNC covered.

In this years tournament:

Oklahomo --> shitty guard play = UNC cover on single digit spread

LSU --> I didn't watch the entire game, but from what i saw good but not dominant guard play, game was tied with 5 minutes left, UNC went on a run to cover single digit spread.

Gonzaga --> I didn't watch the game, but stats indicate guards did not dominate, cover on single digit spread

 
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Posted: #37
Bob... I see where you are coming from... I am just saying Willie Warren is known as one of the best if not the best freshmen guards in the country and a lotto pick in the NBA, and Pargo and other guards on Gonzaga are far from bad (Took UConn to OT and have some good wins on the season)

I think UNC loses or has close games mostly due to lack of focus.  They lead Maryland by 12 points with 4 minutes to go and just blew it.  I can see what you are saying... and am taking it all into consideration.  Maybe Nova is better than I am believing...
 
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Posted: #38
 
Woopdurritis, thanks for the discussion! the goal here is to figure out a winner and make everyone money!
 
In the end, I will either take villanova or lay off of this game.  Just because it is a big game does not mean it has "good betting value"
 
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Posted: #39
I love how all of you UNC fans keep saying "my tarheels will win this game easy." I can guarantee this is not an easy win. North Carolina's guards will not be able to stop Nova's 3 guard lineup and for the doubters about Cunningham being able to stop a big man just look what he did to Blair, I think that was a pretty damn good job. If you flip it, Cunningham will shoot the jumper on NC big man all day and if they come out and guard him he will beat them off the dribble. "psycho T" who I believe is very overrated and won't do anything in the league did not shut down nor even come close to stopping Griffin whoever said that needs to get their head checked. I am not a Villanova fan but rather a fan of the "Uconnvicts" as some of you called them and as a fan of Uconn I would much rather play UNC then Nova but unfortunately we won't get to because Nova will prove the strength of the big east and the weakness of the ACC and beat UNC. Get your money on that +310 moneyline as quickly as you can.
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by bracks:


tarheels- it wan't just a last sec shot, they beat them all game. Pitt was never up 10?

The difference you could see, is that they get 3's when they drive and kick out. Pitt came back cause they were pulling up.


Nova has shown they can score with anyone. forwards are the key, as I stated which ones, but, 3's can keep them in anygame, and the Heels ahve shown that a Guard can take over a game on them, and, FT's keep Nova in anygame as well.

 

That is cleary a dumb statement.  Nova beat Pitt all game? 

 
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Posted: #41
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Posted: #42
My picks are  NCAR  84        VILLA  74    and  ....drum roll please
 
                     MICH St 71      CONN 68
 
Bets already placed..
 
BOL ALL....
 
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Posted: #43
Any team that Boston College can beat Villanova can beat too. +7.5 is laughable.
 
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Posted: #44
Of course they can.  They should be dogs, but they are very live dogs.

They have great guards, four of the five starters are 6-5 to 6-9 guys who can all guard well even after switchoffs.  The first guard off the bench is 6-5.  If they are decent shooting the 3, with the way they can play defense, they certainly could beat NC.

Of course it will be tough, but I think there is much value in getting 7-8 points, for certain.
 
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Posted: #45

JT-


You really going to take me exact to the point? Sorry, YES, I know they were down at some point, but Nova was dictating that game a lot more.

Can you give me a "smart" point on why they lost besides the ones I know they did?


Sorry- Didn't mean to piss off a Pitt fan.
 
 
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