Posted:
#1
Sun Jan11th wagers on:
2pm Loyola Chicago +7(-110)… Wichita’s 3pt% defense is weak this year at #259. Red flag right from the get go considering Loyola scores most of their pts from the 3 ball (see pt distribution below)
Loyola also rates #14 in the country in 3pt% offense (Meaning lots of those shots are going in). That’s pretty scary considering that Wichita holds no size advantage this year as they lost both 6’8’’ 220llbs Cleanthony Early & 6’9’' 270llbs Chadrick Lufile. Those 2 alone accounted for 195 for 343(57%) from 2pt range including getting the ft line 251 times between the 2. Wichita held an effective height rating of #141 last year compared to just #294 this year (mostly due to those 2 player losses). They also got to the FT stripe last year rated #41 compared to #159 this year. So the drop off expectations should be there especially when just referencing the departure of Cleanthony Early (Last years star player). Loyola Chicago gets great production from their bench this year rated #20 in bench minutes played. Which is a mostly a direct result of returning all 5 staters from last years team and meshing them with the new players, such as Earl Peterson (JC transfer from Coffeyville who averaged 16.6ppg shooting 44fg%, 35%3pt & 86%ft) & Donte Ingram a solid in state Freshman that was Simeon HS top player while there. Both Peterson & Ingram have had their past success transfer along to Loyola with 50% & 47% fg% shooting this year for the Ramblers. I feel strongly about Loyola keeping this game closer than expected with or w/o Montel James who missed the Ramblers last game. Christian Thomas the Ramblers leading scorer has been a great leader all season who is 6’5’’ Forward leading the team in scoring at 13.1ppg while shooting 60% from the field & 52% from 3pt range. Milton Doyle the Ramblers 2nd leading scorer not far behind with 12.7ppg while shooting 52% from the field & 51% from 3pt range. The one thing this Loyola team has been all year is efficient. Need I remind everyone that Wichita St trailed by 1pt to Bradley at half time in their last game (And that was Bradley minus their leading scorer Warren Jones). Another very interesting stat thus far due to Wichita not having the size that they had last season, is they're currently -1 in the rebounding game after 3 conference games vs Drake, Illinois St & Bradley getting out rebounded 98 to 97. Wichita is not going to run away with this conference like everyone thinks. Northern Iowa & Loyola Chicago are going to compete all season long. Laying 7 here on the road vs what looks to be a very much improved Rambler team?… Well, I’ll take the points…
Arizona -9(-110)… Wayne Tinkle’s 1st year at Oregon St with a completely revamped team vs 14-1 Arizona & Sean Miller in his 6th year with heavily recruited players all over the court. No way do I see the slow em up style tempo that Wayne Tinkle used at Montana transferring to 1st year success in the Pac12. Here’s Tinkle’s past tempo’s at Montana:
275
278
307
310
304
197
258
344
And this year at Oregon St:
321
FYI: Arizona hasn’t lost a basketball game to a team with a tempo in the 300’s since their loss on Feb, 24th 2012 @USC. Since then the Wildcats have gone 133 games without losing to a team with a tempo in the 300’s... 21 times since that loss to USC has Arizona played a team with a tempo of 300 or worse and 21 times they have won those games. 3-0 this year, 6-0 last year, 5-0 in 2013, 6-0 in 2012, 1-0 just 18 days after that loss to USC, they paid USC back in the Pac 10 tourney.
Wayne Tinkle’s approach seems to be working right now. But a closer look says his teams 10 wins this year (only 9 vs D1 teams), just 2 of them have come vs teams with winning D1 records (Depaul & Portland). Overtime was need to get that win over Portland & Depaul currently at 9-8su is projected to go 1-13 in their remaining 14 games. Hence, Oregon St’s current sos rating of #311. I don’t see home court saving Oregon St here, and if anything it’s offering me value with a team that should wipe the floor with em. Laying road chalk with confidence...
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