Can't/won't argue with anything you wrote because it is spot on accurate. But there are just some value plays that should be played if there isn't any evidence to suggest otherwise. In the case of Arizona all that can be said is they haven't had a heavy duty test on the road. That's not enough for me to say they aren't the play here.
That's just it though. I believe the line shouldn't make people scratch their head. The odds makers are playing the "Arizona hasn't been tested on the road" angle here and by the looks of the covers NCAACB forum people are biting. My take on it anyway. Like I said we'll see how it shakes out later today.
I see it the same way as you in terms of the San Diego game being a test, but the line tells you the odds makers are downplaying that as a true test. We'll know soon enough how it's going to shake out.
While your end result is the same as mine, I think it's a little too simplistic to say #1 against #25 = #1 winning, and certainly don't see it as ez money. But I believe it's the right play. Hope we're on the correct side.
There is a big tendency to overthink things when gambling on sports. But when you have a #1 getting 2.5 and there's no recent history to call that into question you take the points and your chances. That's what I'm doing today. We'll see how it shakes out.
Best of luck to all!
2-0 so far today and I'm going to try another one:
Notre Dame/Indiana OVER 149.5 (-110)
Teams are 1-0 and 2-1 on OVERS when playing in afternoon games. I will go with that even though it's a small sample size.
Best of luck
Also adding a 2nd half play:
Maryland -10 (-110) 2H
Yes it was a value play whether it ended up being a win or loss. And as much as I hate to say it when you continually see posts on the covers board (the sport doesn't matter) where the majority of people are touting it as a no brainer, easy money, etc. it's a good barometer to know you should go the other way. Not an exact science for sure, but definitely something I look out for.
That's just it though. I believe the line shouldn't make people scratch their head. The odds makers are playing the "Arizona hasn't been tested on the road" angle here and by the looks of the covers NCAACB forum people are biting. My take on it anyway. Like I said we'll see how it shakes out later today.
Every game could go either way no doubt about that, but luck had nothing to do with that win. They were the better team and it showed up when it counted at the end of the game.
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