Bags Thursday **March Madness**

Waited all day to lose my 5U play along w/ the last leg of my parlay in less than 5 minutes…possibly the worst ending to a good week….no dog upsets and that’s really my speciality….

Back home safely, but was able to place a one last bet in before I left…

Posting early so I can be doing normal family things again….will not reply for a day or 2…. 

POD Thursday: 

SD State +11 (3U)

Alabama +4 (1.5U)

Upset Plays…BOTH #1s going home Thursday. 

SD Sate ML +460 (1U)

Bama ML +158 (.5U)

2 Parlays for 1.5U each…

SD State +11, Bama ML,  Houston ML, and Creighton +3.

SD State +12, Illinois +2, NC State +6.5, and Purdue ML. 

Also added a future with: SD State to make the Final 4 @ +1400 (1U)

Imagine UConn as the first  #1 seed to go down? I can.

I have UConn as the 3rd best #1 seed and they’ll face the most stingy defense they’ve faced. SD State’s guards is just so quick at getting pass deflections and playing in between man & ball….they are clicking on at the right time!  

NW didn’t have a big, and plays absolutely zero defense. SD State is the second worst possible matchup for UConn…(Houston #2). This Uconn team excels at off ball screens and passing, but SD will be ready to execute from LY’s rematch. The guards for UConn are quick with their feet and eyes, but SD defense playes exceptionally well at off ball defense. 

LeDee is an absolute beast, and see no one from UConn stopping him. He’ll matchup real well with Clingan. 

Final 4 Prediction…Sd State, Zona, Purdue, Houston

Championship game: Zona vs Purdue

Champion: Purdue. 

fill em’ 

@LB_Dirtbags

 Good luck Long Beach, glad you got home safe, I plan on being at the South Point for March Madness next year, maybe I will see you there.

Pull over...pull over..the dogs are comin' ova

@LB_Dirtbags

 Agree with all except San Diego St. I think Illinois beats UConn and loses to Arizona in the final 4. I think Houston will beat Edey up and I think Zona gets revenge on Houston for knocking them out in the south region in San Antone a few years ago. 

Houston will beat Duke up Friday night like Tenn did to Duke last year. Houston way too physical for Duke and Marquette. 

 @OO7CRUSHER

Thank you…finally catching up on Zs. I’ll be @ SP for sure. Tradition of mine for over 10+ yrs 

Im not believer in this UConn team…and I’ve been thinking this for a while. 

LYs team was more athletic, and guards were more gifted at shooting/driving to the basket….they were way deep in talent! 

SD State’s  1/2/3 spots are much quicker, and will give UConn’s backcourt fits kmo. Theirs not very deep, and defensive focus should be easier. Close game throughout and State pulls through the last 5 minutes and advance. 

Like I said, with the Yale pick LB, we can do all the research we want and love the play all day, but when those mushes come in last minute on the same side, it's a wrap. Just pray they are on the other side, and then you can double down. The mushes on this forum have made me second-guess my handicapping, but on the flip side, they have saved me a lot of money if I catch it in time. So it's give and take. People who don't have a lot of time to cap can just wait for the mushes to post and go opposite.

There will be no upset boy. 

Sdsu may cover.. I think 11 points is a lot for this game that’s gonna be a physical one indeed.

uconn is not going anywhere this round. You need a bonafide scorer to take down UConn alongside an elite defense. Something illinois has if they get by Iowa state.

@Grinder360

 I agree. Often times when I don’t have a chance to research, but I do listen to the loud mouths in the Sportsbook.

True story, it was 2020 when I wanted action on a late night game with Oregon St vs Oklahoma State…had no read on either team until loud guy sitting next me was so confident that Cunningham was the best player on the nation and that there was no way OKST would lose. I went ML on the Beavs @ around +250 and they won SU. 

I really try not to read too much with the mush bettors, but yes I do agree, the energy from them does impact which side to bet. 

I just watched LY’s championship game and UCONN 2 key players in Sanoga and Hawkins were the difference maker. State was within 5 with about 7 minutes left, until Uconn made a late run. Watched LeDee, and he played pretty sound vs Clingan…and I fell this years LeDee is playing with a TON of more swagger. Clingans backup Johnson will also be outmatched imo. Key presence will be key and I love how this Aztecs team is built going in a game close to UConns campus. 

Mushes are the best source of confluence for sure lol.

I have one serious question, though, LB. How can you be so confident now in a San Diego State team that you predicted would lose straight up to your biggest play of yesterday, Yale ML? What has changed in the last 24 hours that you went from SD State getting eliminated by Yale to beating the Champs?

I also see you have Creighton, a team that should have really lost in regulation to Oregon, beating Tennessee. I will say Tennessee shot horrifically against Texas, and they cannot do that against a sharp-shooting team like Creighton. But apart from that, Tennessee statistically seems like the better team.

And for full transparency, I have UCONN/Tennessee as my finals, but I have no issue betting with value, especially if I'm getting points.

SDSU is not as good as last years team. They struggled in a weak MWC. They got down DD in the semis to and lost finals and should have lost to UNlV in the 1st round.  They were lucky to beat UAB and beat a Yale team that could not matchup athletically and made them look better than they are. SDSU will struggle to score vs Uconn.  There is a reason why this line is -11.5 

I'm leaning that way myself. Correct me if I'm wrong; double-digit favorites have killed it in this tournament so far. I even noticed Houston was -9.5 against A&M and told myself, "That's not double digits; take the Aggies." 

SDSU beating Yale by 30 is clicking? Could not even cover vs UAB barely winning by 4. Then prior to that lose to NM who got destroyed by Clemson.  

Best of Luck BAGS!

I've prob watched 20+ of SD State's gms this year so I'm pretty familiar I think..

This Aztec team does not have Mensah and Arop inside to battle Clingan's size, and it has me worried.

If last yr's team had shot worth a shit in the Finals they could've won!  but, they didn't...

Aztec guards and perimeter players play very good defense, will help well and get their hands on a lot of passes or knock a dribble away.. and they can help turn and swarm the post player

LeDee is a studly 6'8", but not a leaper.. he plays w leverage and solid base and draws LOTS of fouls most games.. he's relentless and a hard worker (as are ALL of the Aztecs, Effort is NOT the problem).

Clingan is a long-armed solidly built 7'2".. that can board, block shots, and shoot 3s

I don't know how LeDee is gonna be able to post him up and score, and that and FTs is LeDee's game almost exclusively

I hope Clingan gets in foul trouble, Aztecs are not tall inside.. Saunders.. Heide.. LeDee.. Waters (from USC).. long arms of Parrish and Pal (both very slender).. 

I DO believe that Coach Brian Dutcher will have a solid game plan!  and I hope they can execute it to perfection!

I've already played Aztecs +11.5 (buy half) and hoping line goes up another pt, but I don't know if it will.

I know ANYthing can happen.. Aztecs can get hot.. get lots of steals maybe.. bother the Conn 3s and limit them to 1 shot.

Butler, Trammell, Bird, Parrish, Waters, Saunders... need to be making their 3s..

they normally don't shoot a lot of them, normally pound the ball into LeDee.. 

I'm thinking they've got to take the perimeter shots this game and maybe some transition points would be nice!  We'll see!

GL to Aztecs backers!   Coach Danny can take his meds and his 8 M&Ms and have an early vacation!!!

Hawkins is a massive piece missing for sure.. that team is still damn good, I'm surprised how well they've played this year without those two to be honest. 

Any hope teams had last year Hawkins would just go on a heater and put the dagger in teams and kill their dreams.

@LB_Dirtbags

 You are delusional - Castle will lockdown LeDee, along with Stewart.  UConn by double digits just like last year. 

@LB_Dirtbags

 LeDee and nobody. UConn has a strong 8 players, not just one.  Big mistake on your part taking SD St.

@LB_Dirtbags

 If SDst knocks down their 3s, they have a chance. Otherwise, they will go home

Doesn’t matter if UConn lost 2 key players of last year’s championship team.

dan Hurley is still coaching this team and is deep enough to win another one as long as his kids keep playing like they recently have in the tournament games. 

@Grinder360

One thing with the Yale/State pick was I didn’t see who State was playing next. I also didn’t think State was able to knock down 3s…one of the worst in tourney….but they did. Also, Thurs/Friday games were my best days because I studied the hell out of the matchups…for almost 3 weeks! Sat/Sun are much tougher to study for and because the turnaround to watch tape & look at everything is much shorter time period. Lesson learned for sure. 

This is just a worst SDSU team compared to last year. Saying a player is playing “with swagger” is a lazy handicap, look at the numbers, they are down from last year across the board, hence why they barely got past a mediocre UAB squad.

It might be a close game in terms of the cover, maybe a final meaningless 3 at the end to decide it.

@Grinder360

 Why Creighton? I’m going with the better coach in McDermott if he can’t come up with a game plan to guard just 1 player, he’s failed miserably. I also have said in the past that Tennessee’s bigs are the achilees heel of this team. Love the +3