Baskets and focus on this game in this thread PLEASE.
I am trying to find a way to lay off Baylor -4 today, lets look into this game a little further and discuss the probability of Col covering this #.
Trap play...? Why would the line be going down after the open at -5 if Baylor is HOT, by far the superior team on both Def and Off? Home court is not an asset to Col as denver is NOT a tough place to play in and tickets mid week are usually at a premium.
I have put my numbers aside on this 1 and hope to see a productive forum discussing ONLY this game and not posting other picks.
This is what we should truly try to do in these forums, consolidate our information and try to disect the games coming to a close consensus on finding an advantage, then beating our man.
I post very little as these forums tend to get personal and usually become very much like a soap opera. People stop wasting time bashing others, just focus on bashing your book. Nothing at ALL personal about making money, its something we should all be focused on.
Lets see if this works. There are a few good cappers who I see inhabit these forums daily and with 4-5 people comparing our sides we may come up with a "PLAY".
P.s- My cardinal rule is never to play more than 3 games a day (well other than saturdays :)) If we could go 2-1 all the time it would make up for nice profits at the end of the week. My avg play is a 10u and rarely go below or above.
Later
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Baskets and focus on this game in this thread PLEASE.
I am trying to find a way to lay off Baylor -4 today, lets look into this game a little further and discuss the probability of Col covering this #.
Trap play...? Why would the line be going down after the open at -5 if Baylor is HOT, by far the superior team on both Def and Off? Home court is not an asset to Col as denver is NOT a tough place to play in and tickets mid week are usually at a premium.
I have put my numbers aside on this 1 and hope to see a productive forum discussing ONLY this game and not posting other picks.
This is what we should truly try to do in these forums, consolidate our information and try to disect the games coming to a close consensus on finding an advantage, then beating our man.
I post very little as these forums tend to get personal and usually become very much like a soap opera. People stop wasting time bashing others, just focus on bashing your book. Nothing at ALL personal about making money, its something we should all be focused on.
Lets see if this works. There are a few good cappers who I see inhabit these forums daily and with 4-5 people comparing our sides we may come up with a "PLAY".
P.s- My cardinal rule is never to play more than 3 games a day (well other than saturdays :)) If we could go 2-1 all the time it would make up for nice profits at the end of the week. My avg play is a 10u and rarely go below or above.
Here's one that might make you layoff Baylor, Big12 teams are 112-1 at home this year.....look it up, I could not believe it myself when I read it yesterday. The only blemish is UNI winning at Iowa St this year
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Here's one that might make you layoff Baylor, Big12 teams are 112-1 at home this year.....look it up, I could not believe it myself when I read it yesterday. The only blemish is UNI winning at Iowa St this year
This Baylor team has three road wins but two were when catching teams banged up and shorthanded at the right times: South Carolina and Arkansas (which was a semi-away game).
At 13-1, 6 of their wins were over teams not rated in the top 300 in Division 1 and their non-conference schedule ranks 269th in strength.
I think the line came out high based upon their monumental win over Oklahoma last out but if you watched Oklahoma last night, it is clear how they could fall apart on the road and get crushed.
The Buffs are a very solid team offensively. They rank 20th nationally in offensive efficiency, they get to the free throw line as they are ranked 21st nationally in FT's per shot attempt, are 2nd nationally in FT shooting at 78.4% and are a good three point shooting team ranked 76th nationally at 37.1%.
This Baylor team was 1-7 last season on the Big 12 road. They definitely have an inside advantage and have a solid frontline but I still feel they are a bit overrated.
Should be a good game IMO.
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This Baylor team has three road wins but two were when catching teams banged up and shorthanded at the right times: South Carolina and Arkansas (which was a semi-away game).
At 13-1, 6 of their wins were over teams not rated in the top 300 in Division 1 and their non-conference schedule ranks 269th in strength.
I think the line came out high based upon their monumental win over Oklahoma last out but if you watched Oklahoma last night, it is clear how they could fall apart on the road and get crushed.
The Buffs are a very solid team offensively. They rank 20th nationally in offensive efficiency, they get to the free throw line as they are ranked 21st nationally in FT's per shot attempt, are 2nd nationally in FT shooting at 78.4% and are a good three point shooting team ranked 76th nationally at 37.1%.
This Baylor team was 1-7 last season on the Big 12 road. They definitely have an inside advantage and have a solid frontline but I still feel they are a bit overrated.
I respectively disagree with gamehunter's assessment of them being overrated, this is a huge mismatch in every position especially in the paint. If this game was played a month from now, I think the line would be closer to -10 as people are still doubting the bears. The line movement towards Colorado looks like the line movement towards Boise last night. How else are they going to draw money off the Bears?
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I respectively disagree with gamehunter's assessment of them being overrated, this is a huge mismatch in every position especially in the paint. If this game was played a month from now, I think the line would be closer to -10 as people are still doubting the bears. The line movement towards Colorado looks like the line movement towards Boise last night. How else are they going to draw money off the Bears?
I respectively disagree with gamehunter's assessment of them being overrated, this is a huge mismatch in every position especially in the paint. If this game was played a month from now, I think the line would be closer to -10 as people are still doubting the bears. The line movement towards Colorado looks like the line movement towards Boise last night. How else are they going to draw money off the Bears?
I respect differing opinions.
Question though: Couldn't they draw money off the Bears by making the line Baylor -7?
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Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Chains:
I respectively disagree with gamehunter's assessment of them being overrated, this is a huge mismatch in every position especially in the paint. If this game was played a month from now, I think the line would be closer to -10 as people are still doubting the bears. The line movement towards Colorado looks like the line movement towards Boise last night. How else are they going to draw money off the Bears?
I respect differing opinions.
Question though: Couldn't they draw money off the Bears by making the line Baylor -7?
Question though: Couldn't they draw money off the Bears by making the line Baylor -7?
people love line movement, I think by lowering it people think twice about their easy bet on the Bears and either pass or take the home dog. By raising the line, seems like an open admittance from the book that need money on the Buffs
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Quote Originally Posted by GameHunter:
I respect differing opinions.
Question though: Couldn't they draw money off the Bears by making the line Baylor -7?
people love line movement, I think by lowering it people think twice about their easy bet on the Bears and either pass or take the home dog. By raising the line, seems like an open admittance from the book that need money on the Buffs
I respectively disagree with gamehunter's assessment of them being overrated, this is a huge mismatch in every position especially in the paint. If this game was played a month from now, I think the line would be closer to -10 as people are still doubting the bears. The line movement towards Colorado looks like the line movement towards Boise last night. How else are they going to draw money off the Bears?
Good point
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Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Chains:
I respectively disagree with gamehunter's assessment of them being overrated, this is a huge mismatch in every position especially in the paint. If this game was played a month from now, I think the line would be closer to -10 as people are still doubting the bears. The line movement towards Colorado looks like the line movement towards Boise last night. How else are they going to draw money off the Bears?
people love line movement, I think by lowering it people think twice about their easy bet on the Bears and either pass or take the home dog. By raising the line, seems like an open admittance from the book that need money on the Buffs
Not sure I agree with this line of reasoning.....the real money movers in sports betting don't subscribe to the line movement theory...in fact, the biggest syndicates typically work off their own sets of power ratings and will only play games at certain lines...so if they love Baylor, they will love them even more at -5 or -4.5 but if the line was -7 they would never touch it. Yes, I agree, many small bettors and novices get swayed by line movements, but lines don't move on 10 and 20 time bettors. At -7, Colorado backers like myself would salivate while certain Baylor bettors would lay off so if they wanted to draw REAL money off Baylor, they would raise the line to 7 and attract more Colorado bettors. I don't believe that a real savvy bettor is drawn away from making a play because the lien he is getting is a half point or point better than he was looking to get.
Regardless, Baylor could easily win by 20, but I am just sharing my opinion.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Chains:
people love line movement, I think by lowering it people think twice about their easy bet on the Bears and either pass or take the home dog. By raising the line, seems like an open admittance from the book that need money on the Buffs
Not sure I agree with this line of reasoning.....the real money movers in sports betting don't subscribe to the line movement theory...in fact, the biggest syndicates typically work off their own sets of power ratings and will only play games at certain lines...so if they love Baylor, they will love them even more at -5 or -4.5 but if the line was -7 they would never touch it. Yes, I agree, many small bettors and novices get swayed by line movements, but lines don't move on 10 and 20 time bettors. At -7, Colorado backers like myself would salivate while certain Baylor bettors would lay off so if they wanted to draw REAL money off Baylor, they would raise the line to 7 and attract more Colorado bettors. I don't believe that a real savvy bettor is drawn away from making a play because the lien he is getting is a half point or point better than he was looking to get.
Regardless, Baylor could easily win by 20, but I am just sharing my opinion.
I worked for colorado basketball team for couple years in mid 90s and they get no support whatsover. Yes, colorado is 8-0 at home this yr, but they have played nobody.. Will be lucky to get 5000 people at game tonight, so wont be any home court advantage..Colorado has two very good players in higgins and burks, but thats about it..baylor should cover no problem..
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I worked for colorado basketball team for couple years in mid 90s and they get no support whatsover. Yes, colorado is 8-0 at home this yr, but they have played nobody.. Will be lucky to get 5000 people at game tonight, so wont be any home court advantage..Colorado has two very good players in higgins and burks, but thats about it..baylor should cover no problem..
Baylor is clearly the better team here, but they will have to overcome the biggest factor in CBB...being on the road. Making profits on road favorites is a tough trail in CBB. Yes, I agree...BAYLOR can win by 20 here, but I view this game much like last night's OK/OK ST matchup. If that game were in Stillwater, OK ST is favored by 9 and they win by 15+. This game tonight...if it were @ Baylor...the Bears would be favored by 13 points, at least.
I rarely play road teams in CBB and almost never play road teams laying wood...there are easier ways to make cabbage in CBB.
BOL to everyone tonight.
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Baylor is clearly the better team here, but they will have to overcome the biggest factor in CBB...being on the road. Making profits on road favorites is a tough trail in CBB. Yes, I agree...BAYLOR can win by 20 here, but I view this game much like last night's OK/OK ST matchup. If that game were in Stillwater, OK ST is favored by 9 and they win by 15+. This game tonight...if it were @ Baylor...the Bears would be favored by 13 points, at least.
I rarely play road teams in CBB and almost never play road teams laying wood...there are easier ways to make cabbage in CBB.
I worked for colorado basketball team for couple years in mid 90s and they get no support whatsover. Yes, colorado is 8-0 at home this yr, but they have played nobody.. Will be lucky to get 5000 people at game tonight, so wont be any home court advantage..Colorado has two very good players in higgins and burks, but thats about it..baylor should cover no problem..
Home court advantage has very little to do with attendance. It has more to do with travel and familiarity with the gym. Home court is still a big factor in small conferences and small schools, where only family and friends are in attendance. I'm not saying it isn't a factor, but it not a big part of it. Fans always like to overstate their importance.
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Quote Originally Posted by coloradobuff:
I worked for colorado basketball team for couple years in mid 90s and they get no support whatsover. Yes, colorado is 8-0 at home this yr, but they have played nobody.. Will be lucky to get 5000 people at game tonight, so wont be any home court advantage..Colorado has two very good players in higgins and burks, but thats about it..baylor should cover no problem..
Home court advantage has very little to do with attendance. It has more to do with travel and familiarity with the gym. Home court is still a big factor in small conferences and small schools, where only family and friends are in attendance. I'm not saying it isn't a factor, but it not a big part of it. Fans always like to overstate their importance.
u act like your life depends on this game! pick another. chill dude, sure its not gonna be the first time you lose. take kentucky!!!
DUDE, you obviously are here to waste time. Many people are here to make money. I am not here because my life depends on a GAME if it were I need to stop trying to find advantages. The way to find a game to bet on using this forum it to share information, which takes time and research. Whether you get it or not, nobody asked you to participate in the forum and if you do not like the contents or posts please feel free to go to another and waste there time.
Just as I said in my opening post, its always personal with you little kids, PLEASE stop wasting time with posts that add no VALUE.
It is called VERBAL DIARHEA.
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Quote Originally Posted by 075:
u act like your life depends on this game! pick another. chill dude, sure its not gonna be the first time you lose. take kentucky!!!
DUDE, you obviously are here to waste time. Many people are here to make money. I am not here because my life depends on a GAME if it were I need to stop trying to find advantages. The way to find a game to bet on using this forum it to share information, which takes time and research. Whether you get it or not, nobody asked you to participate in the forum and if you do not like the contents or posts please feel free to go to another and waste there time.
Just as I said in my opening post, its always personal with you little kids, PLEASE stop wasting time with posts that add no VALUE.
I'm on Colorado and the Under....I like the movement favoring both these plays after seeing the consensus on the opposiute sides...I play games that way
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I'm on Colorado and the Under....I like the movement favoring both these plays after seeing the consensus on the opposiute sides...I play games that way
Home court advantage has very little to do with attendance. It has more to do with travel and familiarity with the gym. Home court is still a big factor in small conferences and small schools, where only family and friends are in attendance. I'm not saying it isn't a factor, but it not a big part of it. Fans always like to overstate their importance.
I agree with this post
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Quote Originally Posted by swizzol:
Home court advantage has very little to do with attendance. It has more to do with travel and familiarity with the gym. Home court is still a big factor in small conferences and small schools, where only family and friends are in attendance. I'm not saying it isn't a factor, but it not a big part of it. Fans always like to overstate their importance.
Baylor has Ok st and Kansas on deck, just isn't a good spot to back them traveling and playing a team that is designed to frustrate.
agree with the possible sandwhich/ lookahead angle, but Baylor is more frustrating to play the Colorado, team ball with defense,rebounding block shots at the heart, pack it in and the guards beat you
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Quote Originally Posted by VegasMaxx:
Baylor has Ok st and Kansas on deck, just isn't a good spot to back them traveling and playing a team that is designed to frustrate.
agree with the possible sandwhich/ lookahead angle, but Baylor is more frustrating to play the Colorado, team ball with defense,rebounding block shots at the heart, pack it in and the guards beat you
agree with the possible sandwhich/ lookahead angle, but Baylor is more frustrating to play the Colorado, team ball with defense,rebounding block shots at the heart, pack it in and the guards beat you
disagree. Colorodo likes to play slow methodical basketball where everybody touches the ball and possesions are valuable that will frustrate anybody coming to town.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ron_Chains:
agree with the possible sandwhich/ lookahead angle, but Baylor is more frustrating to play the Colorado, team ball with defense,rebounding block shots at the heart, pack it in and the guards beat you
disagree. Colorodo likes to play slow methodical basketball where everybody touches the ball and possesions are valuable that will frustrate anybody coming to town.
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