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Baylor@West Virginia -Tue- Discussion

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Legend
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Posted: #1
Line opens -6(-115)

Been waiting for this one for weeks! Should be a battle. 

What do you guys got on this game? Gimme some dirty basketball talk
 
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Posted: #2
West Virginia tomorrow 
 
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Posted: #3
Baylor gets it done 
 
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Posted: #4
2  teams who I think will lose Tuesday. 1. Baylor 2. FSU. 

Still looking at the line, but if I had to choose it would be WV -6.
 
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Posted: #5
Very interesting "Polls vs. Vegas" matchup.

Polls: 
#1 Baylor @ #10 WVU.

KenPom/Vegas:
#7 Baylor @ #2 WVU

I tend to agree with the latter more than the former, and betting on a newly-ranked #1 team (in the polls) is typically a dicey proposition. 

That said, this is a tough schematic matchup for WVU. Like Texas Tech, Baylor makes it exceedingly difficult to score at the rim. In fact, no team allows fewer points at the rim than Baylor. Tons of length in the Baylor zone and arguably the best shot-blocker in the country with Lual-Acuil. WVU will need to hit a whole bunch of jumpers to win because Baylor isn't going to foul (6th fewest in the country) and WVU's offense is predicated on getting to the rim, drawing fouls, and putting back missed shots. 

Another issue is WVU's defensive rebounding deficiency. I mentioned it in various WVU/Texas Tech writeups, but this team is really missing Devin Williams and Jonathan Holton. They're getting crushed on the defensive glass (#312, allowing rebounds on 34.3% of missed shots). Baylor has the personnel to exploit this deficiency as Maston, Motley, and Lual-Acuil are all excellent offensive rebounders. Baylor, as a team, collects 36.0% of its misses (23rd best in the country). Of course, WVU tends to mitigate the damage on the defensive backboards by forcing the most turnovers in the country. However, Baylor has a bunch of capable ballhandlers to keep the turnovers at a reasonable level (Lecomte, Wainwright, Freeman, McClure, and Lindsey). BU also just saw another frantic pressure team (OK State) and only turned it over 13 times. Granted, that was in Waco, and WVU turns up the pressure like no one else in Morgantown. 

Situation favors WVU, scheme favors Baylor. Should be an excellent game. 

 
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Posted: #6
When was the last time a #1 seed opened as a 6 point dog? Never seen it before. Hate to say this but #1 Baylor is a paper tiger.
 
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Posted: #7
Also, I'm not a big fan of Lecomte. He doesn't have the IT factor to lead his team.
 
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Posted: #8
Couldn't of said it better Jfen.

I haven't dug to deep into this one yet, but it's a must to look into both WVU's losses, Temple and Tech. We saw how much poor free throw shooting hurt WVU. Another thing that was alarming was when they weren't able to get quick turnovers off the press vs Tech, they were constantly called for traveling in their half court sets.

Can Huggy do enough work in practice to work on these aspects?

Baylor hasn't lost yet...who gave em the best ride and why? They've had only 2 road games so far. @Sparty vs a reeling Izo team, and @Oklahoma.

Morgan Town is going to be going nuts tomorrow.
 
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Posted: #9
I know the mountaineers are home but I still think Baylor gets it doNE. .
They cover that 6 for sure
hoping to recoup is what ruins the gambler
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Very interesting "Polls vs. Vegas" matchup.

Polls: 
#1 Baylor @ #10 WVU.

KenPom/Vegas:
#7 Baylor @ #2 WVU

I tend to agree with the latter more than the former, and betting on a newly-ranked #1 team (in the polls) is typically a dicey proposition. 

That said, this is a tough schematic matchup for WVU. Like Texas Tech, Baylor makes it exceedingly difficult to score at the rim. In fact, no team allows fewer points at the rim than Baylor. Tons of length in the Baylor zone and arguably the best shot-blocker in the country with Lual-Acuil. WVU will need to hit a whole bunch of jumpers to win because Baylor isn't going to foul (6th fewest in the country) and WVU's offense is predicated on getting to the rim, drawing fouls, and putting back missed shots. 

Another issue is WVU's defensive rebounding deficiency. I mentioned it in various WVU/Texas Tech writeups, but this team is really missing Devin Williams and Jonathan Holton. They're getting crushed on the defensive glass (#312, allowing rebounds on 34.3% of missed shots). Baylor has the personnel to exploit this deficiency as Maston, Motley, and Lual-Acuil are all excellent offensive rebounders. Baylor, as a team, collects 36.0% of its misses (23rd best in the country). Of course, WVU tends to mitigate the damage on the defensive backboards by forcing the most turnovers in the country. However, Baylor has a bunch of capable ballhandlers to keep the turnovers at a reasonable level (Lecomte, Wainwright, Freeman, McClure, and Lindsey). BU also just saw another frantic pressure team (OK State) and only turned it over 13 times. Granted, that was in Waco, and WVU turns up the pressure like no one else in Morgantown. 

Situation favors WVU, scheme favors Baylor. Should be an excellent game. 

Helluva write-up right there folks. Stat-wise, I was leaning Baylor myself but, if I've learned anything the past few years, it's the fact that the situation is top priority this time of year. I believe WVU will be on fire tomorrow night. Huggy is probably still pissed off he lost 3 times to these guys two years ago! Good luck in what you ll decide.

 
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Stryc9Nine:

Also, I'm not a big fan of Lecomte. He doesn't have the IT factor to lead his team.


I liked him a lot at the beginning of the season, but he's definitely dropped off lately. Playing a lot more timid, has lost some confidence.

 
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Posted: #12
I like Baylor getting the 6,West Virginia didn't impress me much in the Texas Tech game,i expected them to be a lot more explosive offensively,their free throw shooting is suspect also.I don't see them blowing out Baylor,and that free throw shooting is gonna hurt them down the line.
 
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Posted: #13

Looking at the line history, the first opener was 5.5. Moved to 6, now 5.5 at betonline
 
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Posted: #14
Love WVU to win, not sure about the spread though. If it ever touches 4, i'd jump all over it.
 
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Posted: #15
Take the points
 
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Posted: #16
Baylor has been the most consistently good team at this point in the season and scoring against this team is not easy. WVA 68 Baylor 65
 
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Posted: #17
Baylor's 15-0 with a really tough schedule compared to WV with a couple of shaky games.

I REALLY want to take Baylor and the points but feel like I'm being baited so hard...
 
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Posted: #18
Environment overwhelms Baylor, WV by 10+

Linesmakers know what they're doing, making "#1" team in the country a 6 pt dog.
 
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Posted: #19
Let the public pound Baylor then take West West Virginia's spread or money line.   Sadly, the lowest I anticipate this line going to is probably -4.5.. 
"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
 
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Posted: #20
It's crazy that Baylor is all the way up to # 1. They started the year unranked. In some preseason polls, they didn't even receive any votes. 

It goes to show you the "experts" know as much as us.


 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Very interesting "Polls vs. Vegas" matchup.

Polls: 
#1 Baylor @ #10 WVU.

KenPom/Vegas:
#7 Baylor @ #2 WVU

I tend to agree with the latter more than the former, and betting on a newly-ranked #1 team (in the polls) is typically a dicey proposition. 


I really enjoy your posts and insight. You seem like a sharp guy. That being said, I think you put way too much stock into Kenpom. It's a good resource. But, he is wrong a lot of the time. Case and point, he had Virginia ranked # 1 after they upset Louisville in Louisville. They then promptly followed it up by losing at home to Florida State as a 9 point favorite and then lost at Pitt as a 6 point favorite.

 
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Posted: #22
Great stuff guys,thanks for the input.

A thought that keeps running through my head...."When's the last time a public road dog won straight up"? 

I can't recall this happening much at all in any sport. Is the Baylor ML dead $? The books would take a big hit, the #1 ranked team is going to get plenty of tickets on the +ML.


From a match-up standpoint...I'm convinced that this game will come down to Baylor's ability/inability to break the press. If they can cut through it like Tech did, they probably win SU. Now it's important to have a good ball handlers in the back court as mentioned by Jfen. My question is how athletic are the Baylor bigs? Do they have the wherewithal to come up and help out at mid court/cut deep for that long pass which can burn an over aggressive press?

The SOS is glaring. KP/Sagarin/Prediction Machine and any one with common sense knows who these guys have faced and how good those teams are.

Texas Tech had a worse SOS than WVU. But they had the most experienced team who've seen the press before. So I think this is a crucial area...how much experience does Baylor have and when's the last time they faced a decent full court press?

GL Guys
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:

Great stuff guys,thanks for the input.A thought that keeps running through my head...."When's the last time a public road dog won straight up"? I can't recall this happening much at all in any sport. Is the Baylor ML dead $? The books would take a big hit, the #1 ranked team is going to get plenty of tickets on the +ML.From a match-up standpoint...I'm convinced that this game will come down to Baylor's ability/inability to break the press. If they can cut through it like Tech did, they probably win SU. Now it's important to have a good ball handlers in the back court as mentioned by Jfen. My question is how athletic are the Baylor bigs? Do they have the wherewithal to come up and help out at mid court/cut deep for that long pass which can burn an over aggressive press?The SOS is glaring. KP/Sagarin/Prediction Machine and any one with common sense knows who these guys have faced and how good those teams are.Texas Tech had a worse SOS than WVU. But they had the most experienced team who've seen the press before. So I think this is a crucial area...how much experience does Baylor have and when's the last time they faced a decent full court press?GL Guys


Clemson was a massive public underdog last night and won
 
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Posted: #24
Ha!...couldn't be sooner enough I guess.
 
 
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Posted: #25
Grabbed Baylor +12 in a tease.   Hopefully this one doesn't get away from them and they're motivated.  
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