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Betting Stratgegy. Is it this easy

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Prospect
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Posted: #1
This seems too easy.
 
I want to bet 4 games @  100 each.
Instead I randomly play 2 Par 2's
 
Now let's look at possible outcomes
 
4-0
betting each game  . risked 400 made 364
parlay     risked 200  made 510
 
3-1
betting each game risked 400 made 160
parlay risked 200 made 160
 
2-2
betting each game risked 400 lost 18
parlay risk 200
Possible win 160
possible lose 200
 
1-3
betting each game risk 400 lose 209
parlay risk 200 lose 200
 
0-4
 
betting each game risk lose 400  lose 400
parlay risk 200 lose 200
 
In 4 of the 5 possible outomes , I do much better with the parlay.
AM I MISSING SOMETHING??????
 
Prospect
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Posted: #2
if you go 2-2 how could you win 160 or lose 200?
 
Veteran
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Posted: #3
if only everything was so simple hahaha
 
Prospect
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Posted: #4
Quote Originally Posted by hey4:

if you go 2-2 how could you win 160 or lose 200?

if you happen to have the 2 winners together in a parlay

you win 260 but lose 100 for a 160 profit.

if the two winners are in seperate parlays you lose 200

 
Prospect
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Posted: #5
what about the 4 teams doing a round robin parlay and lowering the wager if half?
 
Prospect
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Posted: #6
that was stupid nevermind just thought about it
 
Prospect
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by hey4:

what about the 4 teams doing a round robin parlay and lowering the wager if half?

can you explain that for a dummy

 
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Posted: #8
are u missing something?? yea, keep betting parlays and u will be missing ur money!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #9
doesnt make sense lol i didnt really think about it before i posted it but it makes no sense lol my bad
 
Prospect
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by robb2859:

are u missing something?? yea, keep betting parlays and u will be missing ur money!!!

serioulsy. look at the examples and tell me WHY it is wrong to be them that way

 
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Posted: #11
1st off laying 120 to win 280 on a 2 team parlay, if u split the 2 games u LOSE 120!!, IF U BET BOTH GAMES STRAIGHT UP AND SPLIY U LOSE 10 BUCKS!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #12

its actually not bad.  if you go 0-4 your saving 200 bucks.  if you go 1-3 your saving 9 bucks.  the only bad thing is going 2-2.  instead of losing the juice you could lose 200, or you could win 160

 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by robb2859:

1st off laying 120 to win 280 on a 2 team parlay, if u split the 2 games u LOSE 120!!, IF U BET BOTH GAMES STRAIGHT UP AND SPLIY U LOSE 10 BUCKS!!

Read it closer.  tHIS IS TAKING 4 TEAMS YOU REALLY LIKE AND RANDOMLEY PLACING 2 OF THEM IN ONE PARLAY AND TWO IN ANOTHER.  YOUR RISK IS 200 ON A PAR AND 400 BETTING THEM STRAIGHT

 
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Posted: #14
THE ONLY PEOPLE DUDE WHO LIKE PARLAYS ARE THE GUY U SQUARE UP WITH EVERY WEEK, TRUST ME, BEEN DOING THIS 30 PLUS YRS
 
Prospect
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by robb2859:

THE ONLY PEOPLE DUDE WHO LIKE PARLAYS ARE THE GUY U SQUARE UP WITH EVERY WEEK, TRUST ME, BEEN DOING THIS 30 PLUS YRS

i RESPECT THAT,  THAT Iis why I am asking ,where is the fallacy in this.  I assume thsi is the WRONG way to bet, but why it it.

 
Prospect
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Posted: #16
i wish more people would comment because i'm like you...it prob is wrong but cant find a reason
 
Prospect
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Posted: #17
Its wrong because if you go 2-2 losing one game on each parlay you lose both parlays 200 and 220. thus you net loss is 220. anything worse than 3-1 you can get whacked with parlays as opposed to 4 straight bets netting -20. it all breaks down to the same thing picking winners.
 
Prospect
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Posted: #18
if you go 2-2 and both winners in the same parlay you win though.  i agree though because if you go 2-2 in SU bets you just lose the juice.  over the long run most people hit about 50%
 
Prospect
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Posted: #19
Ill post in a second on what you are missing

 
Veteran
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Posted: #20
You have more than 5 possible outcomes.... look at your system closer
 
Prospect
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Posted: #21
Here's what is what is wrong man

Here is the chances of each outcome (assuming picking games at 50%)

Straight Betting
4-0 (6.25%)
3-1 (25%)
2-2 (37.5%)
1-3 (25%)
0-4 (6.25%)

Parlays Betting
4-0 (6.25%)
3-1 (25%)
2-2 *Winning 1 Parlay (12.5%)  - Note that once you lose one game, regardless of which parlay it is in, there is a 66% chance that the other game you lose will come from the other parlay so (66% * 37.5% (the chance of going 2-2 is 12.5%)
2-2 *Losing Both Parlays (25%)
1-3 (25%)
0-4 (6.25%
 
Prospect
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Posted: #22
Now you take each the expected % of each outcome and multiply it by it's return so and add them up for an average return on a bet..

Straight Betting 
4-0 .... 6.25% * $400
3-0 .... 25% * $160
2-2 .... 37.5% *  -$18
1-3 .... 25% *  -$209
0-4 .... 6.25% *  -$400

Add them up for an average return and you have  -$21.25 which divided by the 400 you laid down on them your return on average is -5.31% of your bet

Now Parlay Style
4-0 .... 6.25% *  $510
3-1 .... 25% *  $160
2-2 .... 12.5% *  $160
2-2 .... 25%  * -$200
1-3 .... 25% * -$200
0-4 .... 6.25% * -$200

Your average return here is -$20.63, which is less than the average return on the straight bet.. but you only laid 200 bucks down so the average return is a monterous -10.3% of your bet ... almost twice greater than a straight bet
 
Prospect
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Posted: #23
Now that was assuming that you cap games at 50%, which regarless of good how good most of us think we are.. we probably are close to that. But for those who actually have this talent to consistently cap games above and beyond 50% it might be more profitable to parlay...

Here are the average return % of your bets assuming you cap at the listed %.

51%   Straight Bet -2.64%   Parlay -6.70%
52%   Straight Bet -0.73%   Parlay -3.02%
53%   Straight Bet  1.18%   Parlay  0.73%
54%   Straight Bet  3.09%   Parlay  4.55%
55%   Straight Bet  5.00%   Parlay  8.44%
 
Prospect
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Posted: #24
Actually something very interesting here is that once you get higher and higher capping games, the profit return from parlays get much much higher...

Now if you can cap games at 60% (or buy them from a service) then the return on parlays is a 28.95% (using whatever return odds this guy has posted)
 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #25
good work freakysfresh
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