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Betting Stratgegy. Is it this easy

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Prospect
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Posted: #26
Thanx man
 
Prospect
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Posted: #27
if u think u can hit 60% or better, try reversing 3 teams together...
with a 3 team reverse their are 3 outcomes:
Team A with Team B
Team A with Team C
Team B with Team C
 
Say for example on a $500 Reverse...
-If u go 3-0 it pays $6000(3 different rev bets at 2k each)
-If u go 2-1 it pays $800
-If u go 1-2 u lose $2300
-If u go 0-3 u lose $3300
 
Make sense?
So if u go 0-3 alot, probably not a good system for u.
If ur hittin 60%, that means more nights u will go 2-1, rather than 1-2.
 
Good luck
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by hey4:

its actually not bad.  if you go 0-4 your saving 200 bucks.  if you go 1-3 your saving 9 bucks.  the only bad thing is going 2-2.  instead of losing the juice you could lose 200, or you could win 160



geezus
 
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Posted: #29
you can go 2-2 and lose both parlays too
 
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Posted: #30
you will win 1 of 4 parlays for an avg loss of $45. (-$330 +$255).
 
you will win 2 of 4 bets for an avg loss of $18. (-$218 +$200)
 
You will NOT win 60% of your bets!!!
 
Don't parlay.
 
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Posted: #31
sy. avg loss of $45 . risk $300 win $255
 
Prospect
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by onetimer:

This seems too easy.
 
I want to bet 4 games @  100 each.
Instead I randomly play 2 Par 2's
 

 
In 4 of the 5 possible outomes , I do much better with the parlay.
AM I MISSING SOMETHING??????

Your talking of 4 straights vs parlay and you say 2 but there are 3 Two teamers in 4 picks...so your math is off to start.

Then assuming you were going to only play 2 you have to choose the right 1 to drop...

Parlays are crack of sports betting...not a system...and not to say that they are useless but better played with the book's $$ than yours. 

Hard enough to average 60% straight betting...
 
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Posted: #33
Parlays have killed more person than Hitler... (i'm jewish so its OK for me to explain it this way)
 
only for fun, not a "system"
 
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Posted: #34
I don't think anyone can say it better than FreakyFresh already did
 
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Posted: #35
It's not worth it guys, unless you are extremely good at capping, in like the 99th percentile. Why do you think the books offer it? It's not because it's suppose to go unknown as a secret for you to make money off of, it is for people to get suckered. The payout to break even on average would be 3-1 for a two team parlay (granted you cap t 50%).

As you add additional games to parlays, 3 teams e.g. then the payout should be (the previous odds *2 + 1) so it should be 7-1 for a 3 team parlay. For a 4 team parlay it should be 15-1, and etc. What you will notice is that as you go up, the payout odds from the books start to get further and further away from what they should be giving them a huge house advantage. If any of you have a question about whether you should parlay, I have created a spreadsheets that calculates expected returns and all that. Just give a holler at what you want. But even before that I should say just don't do it in the first place. 
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by FreakyFresh:

It's not worth it guys, unless you are extremely good at capping, in like the 99th percentile. Why do you think the books offer it? It's not because it's suppose to go unknown as a secret for you to make money off of, it is for people to get suckered. The payout to break even on average would be 3-1 for a two team parlay (granted you cap t 50%).

As you add additional games to parlays, 3 teams e.g. then the payout should be (the previous odds *2 + 1) so it should be 7-1 for a 3 team parlay. For a 4 team parlay it should be 15-1, and etc. What you will notice is that as you go up, the payout odds from the books start to get further and further away from what they should be giving them a huge house advantage. If any of you have a question about whether you should parlay, I have created a spreadsheets that calculates expected returns and all that. Just give a holler at what you want. But even before that I should say just don't do it in the first place. 

 

Freaky Fresh,

Your own data which is great work by the way proves that if you hit 54% of your picks, the 2 team parlay is the way to go.  I mean come on, if you can't hit 54% of your picks, then WHY in the hell are we wasting our time llosing money.  I dont't believe the outrageous claims of 70% or better, but come on, 54 % Better damn be doable or we are screwed..

Can you post that parlay data you were speaking or just send it to me...

 
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Posted: #37
yeah Ill try to post it here once I make sure everything is correct on it, some of those numbers might have been off slightly on the odds and everything.. but they aren't far off.
 
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Posted: #38
I'm not too sure about the rules about posting emails and stuff like that so I don't want to get kicked off here, but it really is quite complicated to post in here, because you can change all kinds of numbers from the expected win % to the payout odds to the number of games, and the juice. 
 
 
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Posted: #39
What I will say is this though, is that if you have two games that you really like, and you are thinking of parlaying them together and the payout for a two game parlay is 13-5.... it is better off to play them individually unless you like them both greater than 60%. Now granted if this is a one time thing, the results can change drastically, as these are all based on averages, so this info is useless unless you are someone who consistently parlays. 
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