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Bob's NCAAB Monday *** 2.1.2016 ***

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NCAAB 2015-2016 Season Record
YTD: 115-102-3 (53%), +4.54 Units *** +2.05% Return on Risk ***
ATS: 77-72-3 (52%)
ML: 1-3 (25%)
Totals: 37-27 (58%)
Parlays/Teasers: 0-0-0 (0%)
PODs: 3-2 (60%), *** +22.6% Return on Risk ***

NCAAB 2014-2015 Season Record
YTD: 246-196-16 (56%), +34.79 Units *** +8.16% Return on Risk ***
ATS: 199-153-11 (56%)
ML: 5-1-1 (83%)
Totals: 15-8 (65%)
Parlays/Teasers: 26-37-4 (41%)

Sunday
5-1 (83%)
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=40&sub=102234516

Monday 

"It's the first of the month… so get up, get up, get up…cash your checks and come on!"

528 Baylor -4½ -110* vs Texas 

Leans

UNC +1 vs. Louisville 
Lots of people are going to be on Louisville and will point to the Cardinals bouncing back from their absolutely embarrassing loss to my Wahoos over the weekend. It doesn't matter what happened on Saturday. UNC is coming off a gimme win at home over BC and it can 100% be argued that they haven't faced stiff competition in awhile. This team is going to force Louisville to play a style of game they aren't suited to succeed in. I will wait for the ML price and evaluate the total. It's likely we see +2 and a +125 ML or better tomorrow.
Florida State -5 vs. NC State
Monmouth -1.5 vs. Siena

Waiting on totals to post, before I finalize my card. Good luck guys!
 
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Public is 85% on UNC from what I can see, but I don't disagree with you here. I expect the line to be around +1, we'll see.

GL Bob
 
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LVille has the better guard play and UNC bigs are soft. I dont think UNC can go on the road and win here, especially with a very focused LVille squad. Virginia is a very tough defensive team and physical.....something UNC is is not. I lile Ville and the under here....73-66



Bol brother
 
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 After watching Louisville on Saturday, I went to see who was on deck. I was thinking I've gotta go with Louisville no matter who they play or what the line is. I saw it was UNC and I thought to myself, leave this one alone, UNC can/will exploit Louisville's weaknesses, or Louisville will take the Tarheels by surprise. I figured UNC to be favored at least by 3 points. I understand where you're coming from, but doesn't this just scream, Louisville or nothing? 
Always check your plays, BoB. Just chiming in on your much respected thread action. Thanks.
 
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Train - I am a UVa alum, so I'm about as big as of Hoos homer as they come. That said, this year's D is nothing like last year's defense. They've actually been mediocre this year, and the only reason why their points allowed (per game) is so low is bc of their pace. The UVa game was a bit of a fluke, IMO. That isn't a repeatable event at all. Louisville looked just as bit of bad as UVa looked good. The Cardinals were god awful in the paint, and were forcing shots. Louisville has a fantastic D, especially in the paint. This is a no play - as far as picking a side goes ATS - unless UNC is +2 or better. I would bite on the Heels at +125 or better on the ML though. 

VicRaven - I responded to you in a different thread, but the bookies are trying to get a 50/50 dollar amount on both sides. Louisville's home record over the last several seasons is not something bettors can ignore, so by setting the line at +1/-1, you're forcing UNC bettors to bet on them winning on the road (most likely). At -1, you're going to draw $$$s on Louisville. I suspect the line will move in favor of the Cardinals, but that doesn't mean UNC isn't the better choice ATS if we see +2 or better. This will be a great game. Implications for both teams are notable.
 
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Lines already moving towards the Cardinals and the under...

519 NORTH CAROLINA 151 151 / 150u14 / 150u20 148.5
520 LOUISVILLE -1 -1

-1.5

 
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Bob, I would slightly argue that of late Virginia defense has looked much better....I think their D is coming around at the right time 
 
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Incredibly notable implications. I'm also a little surprised at the scheduling of this game: Monday evening?
But I hear what you're saying. I'm think I'm gonna stay away and watch. I'm almost feeling like the Tarheels are the non-odds underdog in this one. I love underdogs when I watch.
Best of Luck.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

LVille has the better guard play and UNC bigs are soft. I dont think UNC can go on the road and win here, especially with a very focused LVille squad. Virginia is a very tough defensive team and physical.....something UNC is is not. I lile Ville and the under here....73-66Bol brother

Cant wait to see your card tomorrow, by my figures you were 12-2 Sat, and 7-5 today
19-7 weekend is strong. Shoulda won Wich St/ Evansville under play as well. 13 points scored in last minute. Keep up the great work. Agree Louisville in a situation play, but to win game must stay under the total, preferably in the 60's.
 
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Might not be a bad game to live bet either. The first time one of the teams gets 5 or more points in the game, buy in on the dog.
Or maybe use 7-8 points. It's all about fear and greed, just like day trading. When it's hardest to click "confirm" that many times is the right play. I had Louisville on Saturday and got my lunch eaten. If I go against them and they win, I'll feel whipsawed. If I play on them and they cost me twice in a row, I may drive down there and punch out Pitino, lol. This is a toughie, might be easier games on the card.

 
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UVA was way too physical. I looked at my Pops at the game and said Gill is going to eat us alive. UVA was men and we were boys.
 
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All of these posts on the UNC or Louisville side and no one has mentioned Pitinos record vs Roy Williams. Isn't Williams undefeated vs Pitino?
 
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Monday *** Updated ***

528 Baylor -4½ -110* vs Texas 

531 Monmouth pk -110* vs Siena

537 Mercer -2 -110* vs Samford 

525 NC State/Florida State Over 147 -110* (POD)

UNC +6.5 / SMU -0.5 / NC State +11.5 Teaser (+142, 1/2 Unit)

I wouldn't have immediately noticed the Mercer play, but saw a few other guys I respect (e.g., Mbiddy) on it, gave it a closer look, and decided to take it.

Teasers won't be counted on my overall record, but the units (won or lost) will be, and I will track the record on these separately.
 
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GL tonight BoB....go Bears (x2)! I forced myself to take the Hawks against my own hatred for them

Here's to a good night cuz!!!





 
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BoB 
 
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Monday *** Results ***

3-1 (75%), +1.68 Units
528 Baylor -4½ -110* vs Texas 
Baylor 59, Texas 67
Halftime: 29-35
We were tied up (43-43) with 11:45 left. I had my hopes up, but that quickly fizzled away!
531 Monmouth pk -110* vs Siena 
Monmouth 93, Siena 87
Halftime: 49-40
537 Mercer -2 -110* vs Samford 
Mercer 85, Samford 70
Halftime: 36-28
525 NC State/Florida State Over 147 -110* 
NC State 73, FSU 77 (150)
Halftime: 26-38 (64)
UNC +6.5  / SMU -0.5  / NC State +11.5  Teaser (+142, 1/2 Unit)
 
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

LVille has the better guard play and UNC bigs are soft. I dont think UNC can go on the road and win here, especially with a very focused LVille squad. Virginia is a very tough defensive team and physical.....something UNC is is not. I lile Ville and the under here....73-66



Bol brother
I was way off 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

I was way off 



Home teams win their home games in College Basketball is this a revelation to you Genius ?

Wow you actually picked Louisville -1 at home

Can you act like you pick won a bet before
 
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Quote Originally Posted by BirdsOnBat:

Monday *** Results ***

3-1 (75%), +1.68 Units
528 Baylor -4½ -110* vs Texas 
Baylor 59, Texas 67
Halftime: 29-35
We were tied up (43-43) with 11:45 left. I had my hopes up, but that quickly fizzled away!
531 Monmouth pk -110* vs Siena 
Monmouth 93, Siena 87
Halftime: 49-40
537 Mercer -2 -110* vs Samford 
Mercer 85, Samford 70
Halftime: 36-28
525 NC State/Florida State Over 147 -110* 
NC State 73, FSU 77 (150)
Halftime: 26-38 (64)
UNC +6.5  / SMU -0.5  / NC State +11.5  Teaser (+142, 1/2 Unit)



A winning night 


 
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

I was way off 

The final was 71-65 and not 73-66. You better sharpen up your capping, train! 

Solid, my friend. I wish SMU didn't wet the bed at the end of the game, so I could have hit my first teaser of the season. Oh well.
 
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Nice work!
 
 
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Quote Originally Posted by BirdsOnBat:


The final was 71-65 and not 73-66. You better sharpen up your capping, train! 

Solid, my friend. I wish SMU didn't wet the bed at the end of the game, so I could have hit my first teaser of the season. Oh well.
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