Bubba's $$$$ Thread MONDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 04.04.16

UNC -2 $$$$ (4-3 overall $$$$ record)

I don't post a ton of $$$$ plays. When I do, it tends to be teams that I follow closely like the Charlotte Hornets or ACC basketball. Let's be honest, both of these teams are very good, so I expect to see an even split of sides on this game tonight.

However, when I look at Carolina play the game looks so easy for them in the paint. 11 minutes in to the Syracuse game when Carolina trailed by 2 points, I told a friend that Carolina would win the game by 20 and not worry about the 9.5 point spread. Carolina was getting easy shots and Syracuse was taking tough shots that needed three bounces off of the rim before falling.

I do respect Villanova more than ever before, but I find it highly unlikely that they will be able to deal with Johnson and Meeks and company inside on the defensive boards. UNC has beaten teams game in and game out on the OFFENSIVE BOARDS and once the Carolina big men get that rebound, they score with ease. They are phenomenal at following up missed shots. Further the UNC guards, while not noteworthy 3 point shooters, are excellent drivers to the hoop. They finish or dish very well....or miss and let the big men go to work on the glass.

I just don't think Villanova has seen this type of dominant rebounding in the Big East. Ask yourself this question. If Villanova played in the ACC what would their record have been? No way they go 16-2 in the ACC. They are up against the beasts of the boards tonight. That's where they will lose.

UNC -2 $$$$

$$$$ UNC -2

I have to give credit to NOVA all tournament long, they continue to win. Tonight their run stops. Why? There are a few reasons that stand out to me: Points in the paint, Ochefu, and their shooting percentage. I know it has been stated prior to my post but there is no way Nova can sustain that shooting percentage. Both UNC and NOVA are playing great team basketball but don't get it twisted, UNC is the better team, but just because they are the better team does not mean they will win. Tonight expect UNC to get the ball into the paint and challenge Ochefu directly. If Ochefu gets into foul trouble it will probably mean the end for NOVA. Best of luck

• Florida has not totaled under 5 goals in the past 16 games
• Florida is averaging 6.1 totals per game in the last 20 games
• Florida is averaging 3.2 goals per game in the last 20 games (3.3 in last 10)
• Over is 8-0-5 in Panthers last 13 games playing on 1 days rest.
• Over is 10-1-3 in Panthers last 14 vs. Atlantic.
  
• Toronto is averaging 5.05 totals per game in the last 20 games
• Toronto is allowing 2.7 goals per game in the last 20 games (2.8 in last 10)
• In their last 10 H2H games, they've never went under 5 total goals per game. The average score is 6.3 total goals
  

• 6-1 Over last 7 vs. ACC.
• 10-2 Over last 12 following a SU win.
• 11-3 Over last 14 games.

North Carolina is:

• 4-1 Over last 5 neutral site games.
• 6-1 Over last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
• 4-0 Over last 4 following an ATS win.

Over 149.5 $$$$

over 70 1H

over whatever on the 2H too

I am also on unc too.  They got more experiences and the coach of nova had an interview where he said that the big men of unc is a factor to him. 

Villanova is:

• 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 Monday games
• 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast

North Carolina is:

• 16-5-1 ATS last 22 at neutral site games.
• 4-0 ATS in their last 4 NCAA Tournament games
• 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win

UNC ML

unc -2 full game

unc -1 1H

unc for whatever spread 2H too

parlay unc -2 + over 70 1H

parlay unc -2 + over 149.5 full game