Bubba's $$$$ Thread SATURDAY- Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.26.16

and im an idiot.

Sorry to make a late entrance again.  Looks like the Raptors game has already started.  I don't really like picking them as a super chalky road fav.  They seem to be one of teams that plays to the level of the competition.  Pelicans have so many guys out, who knows what they will do any given day.

I have not capped that Cleveland game but did not that Kyrie Irving is sitting out today.  I also have not capped the Hornets game, sorry about that.

A few lines that stand out to me as being a tad hinky are

Atlanta +2 @ Detroit.  I know Detroit is in 'must win' mode to make playoffs, but this team is too flawed to do any lasting damage.  Not sure, maybe Atlanta is sitting a guy or two?  Need to look deeper into it, but Atlanta is playing well enough for me to pick them as a dog

Minnesota +8.5 hosting Utah.  Am I the only one thinking Utah should not be that huge a favorite on the road against anybody short of Philly?  Granted, they are playing well last 10 games or so and Minny will miss the presence of Kevin Garnet on the court to help their defense.  But for a team that can be offensively challenged, giving up 8.5 points is a lot to potentially overcome.

Forgot to mention, those NBA plays are just my hunches after taking a first look.  I am writing up a $$$$ play though that is different from those just FYI.

Locked in Atlanta +2, should be a close game.  Both teams played yesterday but slight disadvantage for Atlanta in traveling back2back.  Still think they are the far more complete team and should win if they want to.

Still leaning Minnesota +8.5 but did note they played an exhausting double OT thriller AT Washington yesterday, then boarded a plane to play at home tonight against a streaking Utah team.  So in the end, no play for me.

Dellavadova comes up big

$$$$ Philadelphia 76'ers team total under 101.5 $$$$

Okay ladies and gentlemen, looks like SikSenses and I are kinda seeing the same thing here.  I take that as a *good* thing, as his NBA picks seem to be winners more often than not!

As he stated, this is a revenge game of sorts.  Portland got their behinds handed to them in Philly while they were on that great run.  But that Philly team then is not the same as today.  Injuries have piled up and are having an effect.  Okafor has been out for a while now, and their other talented big man Noel is also banged up.  He is listed as doubtful on injury report with their coach saying he did not look good this morning.  So unless an Easter miracle happens, I am safely assuming he will not play.  That is huge as Portland is also making due without one of their more talented bigs in Myers Leonard.  Portland has enough in reserve to make up for that though.  Ed Davis has been playing well.

So while I think Portland is certainly capable of covering that large spread and in fact may do their best to reverse that previous score where they lost @ Philly 114 - 89, I think the safer play is to fade 76'ers team offense and take the under.  Why?  Well for starters, Portland has practically lived on the road the past month.  Since February 27th, Portland has played 12 road games and 3 home games and 5 out of the last 6 games were on the road.  So similar to the Clippers of a few days ago, I think Portland may take awhile to find their rhythm at home again.  Happens to a lot of teams that finally get to come home and sleep in their own beds again.  That first game back can be a bit of a let down.

So now you may be asking why not take Portland team total under 116.5 then, isn't that a much bigger buffer?  Well, it could be to be honest.  But, like SikSenses mentions, revenge is in play here plus Philly 76'er defense can be God awful at times, more so on the road.  Plus, Portland can put up points in droves at home.  So no, I would not want to touch that under.  Maybe the full game under at 219, but not Portland under.

So while Portland is looking to finish the season strong and hold onto their playoff spot, 76'ers really just want the season to end and look forward to getting another top draft pick.  They lost a heart breaker yesterday to Denver Nuggets, and how many heart breaks can a team take late before their will is broken?  I'm sure the young guys will still try hard for Philly, but honestly they are a very below average bunch talent wise now missing their athletic bigs. 

Portland can play solid defense when they want to, like during that 18-4 run earlier.  Their defense has scuffled lately with that uber long road swing, but they had a team meeting and agreed they needed to get back to good team defense if they want to win games.  Since then they gave up 103 to an above average scoring Dallas team and then 96 to the Clippers.  They are very capable of holding this Philly team below 100, no doubt.

Also, looking at Philly last 10 road games, they have been scoring decently well, but a lot of those games were against the bottom ranked defenses of the NBA.  The last decently capable defense they faced was 5 days ago at Indiana where they scored all of 75 points.

$$$$ Philly 76'ers team total under 101.5  $$$$

$$$$ 6-3

$$$$ Villanova +2

Ive been debating posting this cause I see the rest of the thread on Kansas But I have to go with my gut here..

While Kansas is better offensively Villanovas been crushing it on both sides of the court; shutting it down defensively and shooting well. novas shooting 55-60 % during the tournament and I have  a hard time picturing kansas' D being a deterrent here.   Good shooting and Limiting ellis and lucas come in as Novas punches their ticket to houston.

@Lakerz

@redtear - one thing you have going for you is that my college bbal tails have been the kiss of death lately.  And I tailed on Kansas -2 so ...

@Brightsizelife
@Tiltingchaser

Good luck to us.  Just read that Noel is officially ruled out tonight for Philly, so that is that.  Carl Landry is their starting center, and while I like Landry as a hustler and career veteran, he is very smallish for a center.  Philly has no choice but to launch up a ton of 3 pointers anymore, so as long as Portland plays good perimeter defense and rebounds well (they should), then I like our chances. 

I just doubled my bet.

Looks like Bubbaski had some good instincts in targeting Toronto, Cleveland, and Charlotte!  All three teams looking very solid.  I came close to locking in Charlotte or the Milwaukee team total under.  Wish I did now.

Blackhawks and Over Come on!!!!

I was dead wrong on my Raps....nice read bubba

@Lakerz rolling with you on Philly under.  Got it at 102.  Hoping to keep that goose egg in the loss column today (knock on wood)!!!

Like I said, kiss of death! 

@bubbawski   I hope it comes through for us all.  More and more my account is relying on NBA wins rather than college bball wins.  Hopefully Atlanta +2 holds up.

Tomorrow's thread is posted:

Wow the Blazers suck. Gonna cost me a teaser and this under

Lot of whistles in the Phi/Por game.......

Well thanks 76ers.....that just capped off an awful night

Not trying to preach or say I know better, thats no my MO here, but Reverse line movement is important when looking at lines.  76ers had it, as did Villanova.  I will never bet a game that has RLM going against it.  Ill say whats personally works for me and has for a while.  I'll look for any games that have RLM (usually at least 3 a night, upwards of 7 or 8 on a large enough night) Take those games and start capping them and after enough research you'll usually find at least one really solid play, personally I tend to gravitate towards home teams but.  If you have a good understanding of NBA and/or NCAAM and can couple that knowledge with the studying of line movement, its pretty simple to pick at least 60%.   Hope this helps!!

redtear - how did 76ers have RLM?  Seems like the line kept creeping up for Portland as the day progressed, and also the over. 

I still think the 76'ers team total under should have hit.  They had 74 after 3 quarters and then scored 31 in the 4th.  Freaking Ish Smith had one of his best games of the year and hit some big shots there late in the 4th.  I feel sick that I lost, but it is what it is.  I saw the 4th quarter highlights and he was going crazy.  Freaking NBA, where bullcrap will happen any given day. 

I do see your point about Villanova though. 

Phi@Por not a good example of RLM