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Bubba's $$$$ Thread TUESDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.08.16

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Posted: #76

$$$$ Gonzaga/ St. Marys Over 133

Well I am 2-3 over my last 5 and going AGAINST the grain here so tread carefully. Zags and St Marys have combined for a total of 32 unders this year and only 22 overs.  I repeat be warned! I wanted to take the day off from having a full unit play but I can't help myself with this line as I think it should sit around 140.  Zags and St Mary's have already met twice with one going under this total by 12 and one going over it by 4 so their is no historical benefit with the over.  However, the Zags shot 5-26 from 3 when the game went under and only 35% on the night.  St Marys also only shot 50% from the charity stripe (Zags 64%) so lets hope we get the season average of 70% from both of them tonight to tack on 5-10 more points.   What I do know is that both these teams average and can score 75-80 points easily giving us a chance that this thing goes over after 35-37 minutes. Both teams shot the three well this season and I expect about 40-50 total 3 pt attempts tonight.  This game is also going to be neck and neck so even if we are sitting near the mark there is always that shot for overtime!

$$$$ Gonzaga/ St. Marys Over 133

 

 
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Posted: #77
@redtear ... Only one $$$$ per day unless you go 4-0 in a week than you earn a Golden $$$$ to use anytime after going 4-0 and before the end of the week.  Feel free to post any other plays you have and a writeup is always appreciated.
 
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Posted: #78
Quote Originally Posted by rf_dawg:

North Dakota (-7) vs Southern Utah 

The first round of the Big Sky tournament opens in Reno this evening. North Dakota is a middling team in the Big Sky but Southern Utah is downright awful. The fact that North Dakota dropped two to the Montana schools to finish this season gives us a more attractive line then we otherwise would have had.

SUU is terrible defensively (341st in points allowed) and even worse rebounding (344th).  Look for Quinton Hooker (19.5 ppg) from the outside and Drick Bernstine on the inside to mercifully bring SUU's season to a swift end.

$$$$ Pick: North Dakota (-7) vs Southern Utah 


line looks way too easy ... S Utah has my dough ... good luck bro !!
 
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Posted: #79

Pending $$$$: 7

 

NFL_brosuf FAU -3.5
OneHundo Atl Hawks +1.5
E-Z Alabama A&M -4.5

rf_dawg North Dakota -7
appleton40 Raptors/Nets First Half Over 104

achilles1629 Detroit Red Wings ML -110

bubbaski27 Gonzaga/ St Marys Over 133

 

Daily $$$$ Summary: 2-0-0

Winners: 2 (gatorbear, redtear2989)

Losers: 0 (n/a)

Push: 0 (n/a)

 
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Posted: #81
Bubbaski love the pending action nice upgrade........Shout out to gatorbear on the under 78 I tailed NICE
 
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Posted: #82
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

$$$$ Gonzaga/ St. Marys Over 133

Well I am 2-3 over my last 5 and going AGAINST the grain here so tread carefully. Zags and St Marys have combined for a total of 32 unders this year and only 22 overs.  I repeat be warned! I wanted to take the day off from having a full unit play but I can't help myself with this line as I think it should sit around 140.  Zags and St Mary's have already met twice with one going under this total by 12 and one going over it by 4 so their is no historical benefit with the over.  However, the Zags shot 5-26 from 3 when the game went under and only 35% on the night.  St Marys also only shot 50% from the charity stripe (Zags 64%) so lets hope we get the season average of 70% from both of them tonight to tack on 5-10 more points.   What I do know is that both these teams average and can score 75-80 points easily giving us a chance that this thing goes over after 35-37 minutes. Both teams shot the three well this season and I expect about 40-50 total 3 pt attempts tonight.  This game is also going to be neck and neck so even if we are sitting near the mark there is always that shot for overtime!

$$$$ Gonzaga/ St. Marys Over 133

 


Not trying to fade you but I personally think that totals a trap line.. Both  teams familiar with one another, I personally like the under.. Right now I really like the Morgan state under 138..Id make it a $$$$ if I could, I'm out and about so no write up but I like it way more than my previous 2 picks

 
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Posted: #83
Quote Originally Posted by Bubbaski27:

$$$$ Gonzaga/ St. Marys Over 133

Well I am 2-3 over my last 5 and going AGAINST the grain here so tread carefully. Zags and St Marys have combined for a total of 32 unders this year and only 22 overs.  I repeat be warned! I wanted to take the day off from having a full unit play but I can't help myself with this line as I think it should sit around 140.  Zags and St Mary's have already met twice with one going under this total by 12 and one going over it by 4 so their is no historical benefit with the over.  However, the Zags shot 5-26 from 3 when the game went under and only 35% on the night.  St Marys also only shot 50% from the charity stripe (Zags 64%) so lets hope we get the season average of 70% from both of them tonight to tack on 5-10 more points.   What I do know is that both these teams average and can score 75-80 points easily giving us a chance that this thing goes over after 35-37 minutes. Both teams shot the three well this season and I expect about 40-50 total 3 pt attempts tonight.  This game is also going to be neck and neck so even if we are sitting near the mark there is always that shot for overtime!

$$$$ Gonzaga/ St. Marys Over 133

 


what about the first half total of 62, would that be a better play?
 
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Posted: #84
Quote Originally Posted by rf_dawg:

North Dakota (-7) vs Southern Utah 

The first round of the Big Sky tournament opens in Reno this evening. North Dakota is a middling team in the Big Sky but Southern Utah is downright awful. The fact that North Dakota dropped two to the Montana schools to finish this season gives us a more attractive line then we otherwise would have had.

SUU is terrible defensively (341st in points allowed) and even worse rebounding (344th).  Look for Quinton Hooker (19.5 ppg) from the outside and Drick Bernstine on the inside to mercifully bring SUU's season to a swift end.

$$$$ Pick: North Dakota (-7) vs Southern Utah 

I am joining rf_dawg with $$$$ NORTH DAKOTA -7 vs So. Utah

This is a rematch from a January 23rd game played at So Utah which North Dakota cruised to an easy 16 point victory by the score of 88 to 72.   North Dakota dominated on the boards as well as the free-throw line.   Southern Utah will also be missing guard race parsons who averaged 8.4 points per game in this rematch. Southern Utah was dead last in rebounds per game in this conference only averaging 33.6.  They also come in losing 12 out of their last 13 games.   

Montana comes into this game splitting their last 10, going 5-5.  They have shown the ability to play tough against the five teams ahead of them, owning a 4-6 record.   In there 4 wins the average margin of victory has been by 9.5 points.   Of their six losses, they had one really bad loss at Montana 71-46.   All of the other losses were by single digits.

Compare these same teams to So Utah, who went 1-9 in these 10 games.  8 of the 9 losses were by 14 points for more.   This team sure does know how to lose by double digits on a consistent basis.  If So. Utah does not hit their 3's it's Nitey Nite time.

$$$$ me some North Dakota -7 
 
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Posted: #85
Montana above should have read North Dakota....sorry about that gents...

NORTH DAKOTA comes into this game splitting heir last 10, going 5-5.
 
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Posted: #86

@ Redtear ... Thanks but I don't believe in "trap" lines.  I think the line is a little low and these two teams have been atop their conference for awhile so I don't think their shooting is going to struggle any in a high pressure game.  Their defense may pick up a little but I don't think enough to keep both teams in the 60's. The reason why they are both well ranked defensively is because St Marys and the Zags don't turn the ball over much which results in a whole lot of points per possession. This shouldn't be a problem with their extremely high offensive efficiencies. Just my thoughts.  GL

I also looked at that Morgan State/E Shore game and their adjusted defenses are terrible.  Statistically I couldn't bet it but if you have seen them play maybe you know their tempos and defensive potential that could turn on come conference tourney time.

 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:

Quote Originally Posted by TheHat:

Nice call gator! Good start to the day!
Yes, nice call.  Of course, I had 76.5 and had a little more of a sweat, but win is a win.  It's not about how, it's about how many.


I was at 76.5 as well, definitely had to sweet out that last possession.
 
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Posted: #88
Quote Originally Posted by gatorbear:

@bk & stu,  post your picks.
my comment in no way was meant to be negative towards you. I was watching the game and that last possession could've gone either way, which is why i made my comment.

Keep up the great capping @gatorbear. You are one of the best I've seen since I joined in 2008.
 
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Posted: #89

$$$$ play NHL PIT/NYI over 5.5 +105

Islanders have been loose on the defense lately allowing 12 goals in the past 4 games now face the Pens who have scored 4 or more six out of last 10 games.. Malkin ( 4g 3a last 5games) and Crosby (3g 6a last 5 games are firing on all cylinders right now.. Hornqvist has 8 g 3a over last 10 vs NYI. Tavares has done well vs Pens (3g 3a last 4 vs Pens). Two teams whose top players seem to excel against each other bring this one in over the total.

Over is 8-2-1 last 11 meetings in New York

 
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Posted: #90
St. Mary's (+2) vs Gonzaga

Gonzaga has been a public favorite all season with the media attention they've been given.... and they dissapointed (15-17). St. Mary's has somewhat quietly had a great season and gone 18-13 ATS, clearly the public is misguided and Vegas seems to be taking advantage. Here we are once again with the Zags favored by 2, but St. Mary's went 2-0 against them during the regular season. So why are they favored? MEDIA ATTENTION. And to top it all off, they had a really tough game against BYU last night and should be tired. Look for St. Mary's to play a tight game a most likely win outright, making Gonzaga sweat for a seat in the Big Dance.

$$$$ Pick St. Mary's (+2)

This line could be bloated even more as public money comes onto Gonzaga as ESPN is going to be reporting their NEED to win. Fade it, and if you're daring like myself, throw a parlay in with some of the other picks today, We're starting hot and this should be a good day for this thread. BOL people, break the books tonight.
 
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Posted: #91
Quote Originally Posted by Par_Laid:

St. Mary's (+2) vs Gonzaga

Gonzaga has been a public favorite all season with the media attention they've been given.... and they dissapointed (15-17). St. Mary's has somewhat quietly had a great season and gone 18-13 ATS, clearly the public is misguided and Vegas seems to be taking advantage. Here we are once again with the Zags favored by 2, but St. Mary's went 2-0 against them during the regular season. So why are they favored? MEDIA ATTENTION. And to top it all off, they had a really tough game against BYU last night and should be tired. Look for St. Mary's to play a tight game a most likely win outright, making Gonzaga sweat for a seat in the Big Dance.

$$$$ Pick St. Mary's (+2)

This line could be bloated even more as public money comes onto Gonzaga as ESPN is going to be reporting their NEED to win. Fade it, and if you're daring like myself, throw a parlay in with some of the other picks today, We're starting hot and this should be a good day for this thread. BOL people, break the books tonight.

Agree, so done with them getting in and going nowhere-living off their first and only good run, how long ago? But the public never forgets
 
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Posted: #92
Quote Originally Posted by FenwayFrank:


I am joining rf_dawg with $$$$ NORTH DAKOTA -7 vs So. Utah

This is a rematch from a January 23rd game played at So Utah which North Dakota cruised to an easy 16 point victory by the score of 88 to 72.   North Dakota dominated on the boards as well as the free-throw line.   Southern Utah will also be missing guard race parsons who averaged 8.4 points per game in this rematch. Southern Utah was dead last in rebounds per game in this conference only averaging 33.6.  They also come in losing 12 out of their last 13 games.   

Montana comes into this game splitting their last 10, going 5-5.  They have shown the ability to play tough against the five teams ahead of them, owning a 4-6 record.   In there 4 wins the average margin of victory has been by 9.5 points.   Of their six losses, they had one really bad loss at Montana 71-46.   All of the other losses were by single digits.

Compare these same teams to So Utah, who went 1-9 in these 10 games.  8 of the 9 losses were by 14 points for more.   This team sure does know how to lose by double digits on a consistent basis.  If So. Utah does not hit their 3's it's Nitey Nite time.

$$$$ me some North Dakota -7 

My pick $$$$ Southern Utah +9 (my book has it at this now)

My first time posting...hate to go against rf_dawg....

Been lurking on this forum for the past 2 weeks and been doing great! (My top 2 picks yesterday was Miami OH [this was my survivor contest pick], and Denver--would have made this my next survivor contest pick, but it looks like you can only make one pick per day). Thank you to everyone who contributed.

At first glance, N Dakota is the better team, etc.but if you dive down to just conference play see below. Note, even though N Dakota is considered the home team in the match up, the game is actually played Reno, NV; therefore, I will use away records below. Been doing this for other tourney games and has worked out well for me.
S Utah
 *  Away games 2-9 Win (Idaho, N Az)
 *  Away games 5-9 ATS (Portland St, Sacramento St, N Az, Montana St, Idaho)
 *  They started out ugly, but have been trending up since mid Feb in regards to hitting ATS (that is FIVE)

N Dakota
 *  Away games 3-9 (S Utah, N Az, Idaho St)
 *  Away games 4-9 ATS (S Utah, N Az, Idaho St, Weber St)
 *  They started out well, but have declined since mid Feb and only hitting ONE ATS

Considering both records for away conference only games; both teams are about the same!

My first $$$$ play is on Southern Utah to cover.

-mommo






 
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Posted: #93
St Mary's +2
I feel is going to give a tough game with 2 even teams ,but the less tired team will win . plus Mary's has better and toughtes skill players
 
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Posted: #94
Hey Gents....sorry to get off base here for a second but there has been talks about using multiple off shore accounts.  Makes sense to me!! I have only used one (BetAnySports) and they're very good.  Because I have cashed out a few times I wouldn't be available for any bonus reloads until I blow it all!! I want to open a couple more.  Any referrals here? What sites have treated you well?? If I can get you a referral bonus let me know!
 
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Posted: #95
Quote Originally Posted by mommo:


My pick $$$$ Southern Utah +9 (my book has it at this now)

My first time posting...hate to go against rf_dawg....

Been lurking on this forum for the past 2 weeks and been doing great! (My top 2 picks yesterday was Miami OH [this was my survivor contest pick], and Denver--would have made this my next survivor contest pick, but it looks like you can only make one pick per day). Thank you to everyone who contributed.

At first glance, N Dakota is the better team, etc.but if you dive down to just conference play see below. Note, even though N Dakota is considered the home team in the match up, the game is actually played Reno, NV; therefore, I will use away records below. Been doing this for other tourney games and has worked out well for me.
S Utah
 *  Away games 2-9 Win (Idaho, N Az)
 *  Away games 5-9 ATS (Portland St, Sacramento St, N Az, Montana St, Idaho)
 *  They started out ugly, but have been trending up since mid Feb in regards to hitting ATS (that is FIVE)

N Dakota
 *  Away games 3-9 (S Utah, N Az, Idaho St)
 *  Away games 4-9 ATS (S Utah, N Az, Idaho St, Weber St)
 *  They started out well, but have declined since mid Feb and only hitting ONE ATS

Considering both records for away conference only games; both teams are about the same!

My first $$$$ play is on Southern Utah to cover.

-mommo







Mommo....I hope North Dakota wins by 8 for all of us!!
 
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Posted: #96
Quote Originally Posted by mommo:


My pick $$$$ Southern Utah +9 (my book has it at this now)

My first time posting...hate to go against rf_dawg....

Been lurking on this forum for the past 2 weeks and been doing great! (My top 2 picks yesterday was Miami OH [this was my survivor contest pick], and Denver--would have made this my next survivor contest pick, but it looks like you can only make one pick per day). Thank you to everyone who contributed.

At first glance, N Dakota is the better team, etc.but if you dive down to just conference play see below. Note, even though N Dakota is considered the home team in the match up, the game is actually played Reno, NV; therefore, I will use away records below. Been doing this for other tourney games and has worked out well for me.
S Utah
 *  Away games 2-9 Win (Idaho, N Az)
 *  Away games 5-9 ATS (Portland St, Sacramento St, N Az, Montana St, Idaho)
 *  They started out ugly, but have been trending up since mid Feb in regards to hitting ATS (that is FIVE)

N Dakota
 *  Away games 3-9 (S Utah, N Az, Idaho St)
 *  Away games 4-9 ATS (S Utah, N Az, Idaho St, Weber St)
 *  They started out well, but have declined since mid Feb and only hitting ONE ATS

Considering both records for away conference only games; both teams are about the same!

My first $$$$ play is on Southern Utah to cover.

-mommo






with ya brotha !!
 
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Posted: #97
Quote Originally Posted by mommo:

Quote Originally Posted by FenwayFrank:

I am joining rf_dawg with $$$$ NORTH DAKOTA -7 vs So. UtahThis is a rematch from a January 23rd game played at So Utah which North Dakota cruised to an easy 16 point victory by the score of 88 to 72.   North Dakota dominated on the boards as well as the free-throw line.   Southern Utah will also be missing guard race parsons who averaged 8.4 points per game in this rematch. Southern Utah was dead last in rebounds per game in this conference only averaging 33.6.  They also come in losing 12 out of their last 13 games.   Montana comes into this game splitting their last 10, going 5-5.  They have shown the ability to play tough against the five teams ahead of them, owning a 4-6 record.   In there 4 wins the average margin of victory has been by 9.5 points.   Of their six losses, they had one really bad loss at Montana 71-46.   All of the other losses were by single digits.Compare these same teams to So Utah, who went 1-9 in these 10 games.  8 of the 9 losses were by 14 points for more.   This team sure does know how to lose by double digits on a consistent basis.  If So. Utah does not hit their 3's it's Nitey Nite time.$$$$ me some North Dakota -7 
My pick $$$$ Southern Utah +9 (my book has it at this now)My first time posting...hate to go against rf_dawg....Been lurking on this forum for the past 2 weeks and been doing great! (My top 2 picks yesterday was Miami OH [this was my survivor contest pick], and Denver--would have made this my next survivor contest pick, but it looks like you can only make one pick per day). Thank you to everyone who contributed.At first glance, N Dakota is the better team, etc.but if you dive down to just conference play see below. Note, even though N Dakota is considered the home team in the match up, the game is actually played Reno, NV; therefore, I will use away records below. Been doing this for other tourney games and has worked out well for me.S Utah *  Away games 2-9 Win (Idaho, N Az) *  Away games 5-9 ATS (Portland St, Sacramento St, N Az, Montana St, Idaho) *  They started out ugly, but have been trending up since mid Feb in regards to hitting ATS (that is FIVE)N Dakota *  Away games 3-9 (S Utah, N Az, Idaho St) *  Away games 4-9 ATS (S Utah, N Az, Idaho St, Weber St) *  They started out well, but have declined since mid Feb and only hitting ONE ATSConsidering both records for away conference only games; both teams are about the same!My first $$$$ play is on Southern Utah to cover.-mommo

No offense man but the game started a half hour ago and you posted 7 mins ago..
 
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Posted: #98
Quote Originally Posted by Rugged625:

My pick $$$$ Southern Utah +9 (my book has it at this now)My first time posting...hate to go against rf_dawg....Been lurking on this forum for the past 2 weeks and been doing great! (My top 2 picks yesterday was Miami OH [this was my survivor contest pick], and Denver--would have made this my next survivor contest pick, but it looks like you can only make one pick per day). Thank you to everyone who contributed.At first glance, N Dakota is the better team, etc.but if you dive down to just conference play see below. Note, even though N Dakota is considered the home team in the match up, the game is actually played Reno, NV; therefore, I will use away records below. Been doing this for other tourney games and has worked out well for me.S Utah *  Away games 2-9 Win (Idaho, N Az) *  Away games 5-9 ATS (Portland St, Sacramento St, N Az, Montana St, Idaho) *  They started out ugly, but have been trending up since mid Feb in regards to hitting ATS (that is FIVE)N Dakota *  Away games 3-9 (S Utah, N Az, Idaho St) *  Away games 4-9 ATS (S Utah, N Az, Idaho St, Weber St) *  They started out well, but have declined since mid Feb and only hitting ONE ATSConsidering both records for away conference only games; both teams are about the same!My first $$$$ play is on Southern Utah to cover.-mommo
No offense man but the game started a half hour ago and you posted 7 mins ago..

Dude....time difference....It was 2:45pm MT.....Game started 3:30pm MT
 
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Posted: #99
$$$$$ WISCONSIN GREENBAY $$$$$

This is my pick because they are on fire. Not only that everyone seems to like Wright st. So Ima go opposite and pick the better team with he better win . Wright State played a Oakland team that had over a week of no action Green bay will be ready
 
 
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Posted: #100
$$$$ 2-0
All plays 3-0

Two more plays 

Howard NC under 135.5

Fair Dickson Wagner under 142
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