Bubba's $$$$ Thread TUESDAY - Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.08.16

Well yesterday sure didn't go as anybody had hoped...

This North Dakota team is a joke

Monday was rough for me. Made it back today with arsenal and Real Madrid ML parlayed together.

Looking forward to ncaa tourney

Pending $$$$: 8

OneHundo Atl Hawks +1.5
E-Z Alabama A&M -4.5
appleton40 Raptors/Nets First Half Over 104

achilles1629 Detroit Red Wings ML -110

bubbaski27 Gonzaga/ St Marys Over 133

jimmybigmits Pit/NYI Over 5.5

Par_Laid St. Mary’s +2

Nicmittens Green Bay PK

 

 

Daily $$$$ Summary: 4-2-0

W: 4 (gatorbear, redtear2989, NFL_Brosuf, mommo)

L: 2 (rf_dawg, FenwayFrank)

D: 0 (n/a)

 

Congrats to NFL_Brosuf for an easy FAU win! 2-0 for the week and I think that is your 5^th straight $$$$.

@redtear you are killing those unders.  Would you mind posting your reasoning with those plays or if it is a system explain it?  All of your plays have seemed solid I just don't see the angle and don't want to start blind tailing quite yet.

I WANT IN.. I don't have time for a huge write up but I can say this. I am a Hawks fan but this is not a homer pick. I follow them closely and they are hitting stride nicely right now. Jazz will not be able to contain the hawks offense IMO. HAWKS +2 $$$$

AGAIN IM SORRY FOR THE LACK OF AN ELABORATE WRITE UP

BOL TO ALL LETS MAKE

keep it rolling @redtear

I actually came to the exact opposite conclusion of yours, ha ha.  Sports betting can be funny that way!  I disagree with you that Utah has terrible interior defense.  While the season stats may be bleh, that is because their star defensive center Gobert missed a lot of games due to injuries.  The stats are eye opening in terms of when he plays versus when he does not.  He is amongst the league leaders in blocked shots and rebounds per game.  Also Derrick Favors has missed extended games this season due to injuries, and he another impact player with his rebounding and athleticism. 

My $$$$ play is Utah -2

Sure, Atlanta is on a nice stretch here in their road trip, I give them props for that.  Before the trip, they were rather pedestrian on the road but as of now they are a .500 team so not bad.  However, to counter that, Utah has one of the bettern knows home court advantages in the NBA.  It is a noisy venue, and the team normally records year after year of solid home records.  This year is no different, with Utah 19-12 straight up at home.  This record would likely be better but for the rash of injuries.

Utah just recently got knocked out of the 8th playoff spot in the very competitive western conference, so I expect an energized performance tonight at home to try to keep within range of making the playoffs.  When healthy, Utah is a tough knockout at home.  One thing that worries me a bit is Utah just came back from a 4 game road trip.  I usually don't like to play home teams right after a road trip like that, but this line is short enough for me to bite.  Atlanta is playing their 4th straight road game.  After this they get to board the plane and fly all the way to Toronto for a Thursday matchup against an Eastern conference opponent that they are chasing in the standings.  So today's game may be a bit of a look ahead spot for Atlanta as they prepare to play their own conference once again.

One last thing that makes me think Utah is the play is the reverse line movement.  A lot of retail money flowing to Atlanta, yet the line is moving for Utah.  I locked my play in earlier, but right now I see it Utah -2.5.  I still think Utah is worth betting, they should win by > 3.

$$$$$ Utah -2 (or 2.5) if my pick has to be locked in on current line.

Also, my overall record should be 3-2.  For whatever reason my pick from last Friday was never counted.  Not that it really matters of course.

@Lakerz Great write up I will get your $$$$ added.  I am in agreement.  I hardly would ever pick against Utah when they are at home laying such a small number.  On the other hand Atlanta is hot but lets not forget they got beat handily at Phoenix this year!

All please give a good write up and denote it with the $$$$$ before and after so I can easily pick it out.  OPMS_KRATOM I can not track your pick with that write up.  When you have more time in the future we would love to have your $$$$ with a detailed, informative write up.

My $$$$ for the night is south datoka state vs north datoka state under 129. 

Another NBA play that I locked in is Washington +6

I can't take credit for this one, read on another poster's cover thread that Washington has a very nice ATS record when they play with 2 days rest, especially so coming off a loss.  So I tailed it even though I respect Portland when they play at home.  Normally I do not like taking an East coast team like Washington playing on the road in the far reaches of the West coast.

Also tailed on the Gonzaga over, both 1st half o61.5 and full game o133.5.  I wish us all good luck!  And thanks goes out to Bubbaski27 for making the effort to keep this thread going and keeping the standings updated along with posting summations of current bets ongoing and daily win-loss tally.  Very very impressive friend!  Kudos. 

@Gatornation... Got your $$$$ added.  I will be flipping over to this game occasionally as I have interest in it but no money on it.  That place is going to be packed and rowdy tonight! GL

$$$$ Edmonton ML +115

Good call Nic.  Right on the money.  Oakland had 10 days since last game, whereas Green Bay has been playing and is ready.

max you are a POS. you ruined gian's thread. get out of here

@gatornation - let's get it buddy, I'm feeling lucky and will tail you on this one.  N Dakota St under 129

A few extra thoughts I have on that Atlanta/Utah I thought I would share before tipoff.  NBA can be quite random in terms of teams being up one game and then down the next.  As important as perusing stats and trends is, I also try and get a grasp of the emotional/intangible side of things that could influence teams to play very hard one game only to suffer a big letdown the very next one. 

In looking at this game, one small thing that is on Atlanta's side tonight is the revenge factor.  Utah beat them in Atlanta back in November, so perhaps Atlanta might be keyed up to get some revenge this go around.  Atlanta's defense has clicked all of a sudden during this road trip.  They held Golden St to 109 which is actually pretty decent all things considered.  Held Lakers to 77 and then held the Clippers to 97 the next night.  So IF their defense continues to play this efficient, Utah may be in for a long night as their offense is not exactly breaking records.

For Utah to win, they need to hold Atlanta to around 96 or less to win.  Atlanta averaging 106ppg the first three games of the road trip.  Utah will be the best defense they see this road trip.  Golden St has a good defense too, but their offense plays at such a fast pace the total possessions is elevated thus higher scores for opponents.  Clippers playing decent defense as well, but their energy was lacking that evening.  Utah plays at a slower pace, so I still feel comfortable as long as they control the tempo and play their typical high energy defense at home. 

Good luck.

 FEELS GOOD TO MAKE MY BROTHERS MONEY!!!

I did a very small 1 unit play (1 unit = $100) on St Mary's 2nd half -1 -110.  Just saying.


 

Sorry for lack of explanation,  most picks I post are from my phone and are done while I'm very busy with work so I don't have a time of time to break down my reasoning.  I'm pretty well versed in hoops and spend what free time I do have studying games and looking for trap lines.  Bub I know you said you don't believe there are traps, but I respectfully disagree.  I look for what I believe are trap lines and I fade what would be the obvious play.  I dont only play unders, it just happens to be whats caught my eye since I've started posting.  I hope I was able to make some people money the last 2 days!

Lost with North Dakota but came back with a live bet on the Raptors at home. Jumping on the Hawk train for the 2nd half!!

May fortune favor the foolish....

@gatornation24 I know I have seen you post before but I have your pick tonight as your first. Is that correct?

Pending $$$$: 7

OneHundo Atl Hawks +1.5
E-Z Alabama A&M -4.5

bubbaski27 Gonzaga/ St Marys Over 133

Par_Laid St. Mary’s +2

Lakerz Utah -2

Gatornation24 ND State/SD State Under 129

BillyBets21 Edmonton +115

 

Daily $$$$ Summary: 5-5-0

 

Winners: 5 (gatorbear, redtear2989, NFL_Brosuf, mommo, nicmittens)

Losers: 5 (rf_dawg, FenwayFrank, appleton40, achilles1629, jimmybigmits)

Push: 0 (n/a)

Alright!!!!! Gonzaga/St Marys over hit with 5 minutes to play.  Why can't they all be like? 

$$$$ Play of the day E Wash -12