Bubba's $$$$ Thread WEDNESDAY- Post Your BEST Play (With Writeup) - 03.30.16

IBUcrusher, thanks for the nice reaction to my reply to your post.  I was just showing the other side of the equation.  As I said, I played the under, but then I was reminded that OAK is the highest rated offense in the country, or the highest scoring, and now I'm doubting my first thoughts about the game.  This is a bad hobby to be wishy-washy in, but I almost always see two sides to each play, and, even in the plays I feel strongest about, I see some hitch or snag. 

On Covers Home Page one can find the Covers Free Play Courtesy of Big Al McMordie which just so happens to be the Calgary v Anaheim Under.  In addition to our little system, he states, "We all know that defense and goaltending usually determines the Stanley Cup just like pitching usually determines who goes to the World Series.  And it should definitely serve the Ducks well, at least for tonight when they face a club that has averaged just 2.46 goals per game on the road this season (19th-worst in the NHL). The under is 6-1 in Calgary's last seven road games vs. teams with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Take the 'under.'  As always, good luck "Al McMordie.  

MaxWagner - I am in same boat. I appreciated your response because I was looking at it one sided. These teams are polar opposites. 

Leaning toward the White Sox over the Reds in Spring Training.  Reds have been awfully hot lately as they are ripping this sub par pitching but the White Sox aren't too shabby themselves.  I haven't followed the Cactus league as much as I attend the Grapefruit league games so any input is appreciated.

I've realized with Spring MLB, just bet on all the teams with great spring records (i.e. Arizona, Washington, Toronto, Houston). I don't even care about Spring Training but I keep winning with these folks.

Any thoughts on the Nevada/Morehead game ATS or O/U? Playing with house money and looking to cash in. As always thanks for the great info shared in this post!

Morehead State/Nevada over 146 -110 for Game

Heads Up For Thursday:

*2 NHL -200 or > favourite go UNDER 5.5 $$$$ PLAYS

7:05 EDT New York Islanders opened @ -200 host Columbus Blue Jackets $$$$Play total 5.5 Under -130

8:35 EDT Dallas Stars opened@ -210 host Arizona Coyotes SSSS Play total Under 5.5 Even

Going back to the well for my $$$$ play.  I'm taking $$$$ NV -4 over Morehead St.  Here's why:

Nevada (9PM ET ESPNU) – We turn to the CBI for tonights $$$$ as the Morehead State Eagles make the cross country trip to face the Nevada Wolfpack in Game 2 of the CBI Championship Series at the Lawlor Events Center in Reno.  These smaller postseason tournaments are full of unique handicapping situations and the fact that the CBI, the tertiary postseason tournament at best, plays a best of three championship series might be the most outlandish of any since at no other time during the college basketball season are teams ever playing a best of series for anything.  To take it another level, these games occur in a home and home fashion meaning lots of travel if the teams are located on opposite sides of the country which certainly factors in here.   We have been playing the in season home revenge angle all season and in this case we have Nevada backed by home revenge in the same week, making this an ideal spot for the Wolfpack before we even start breaking down the matchup.  We passed on Game 1 on Monday as these two teams appeared to be evenly matched and that proved to be the case as Morehead State prevailed in an 86-83 win that was hard fought and close throughout.  Morehead State dominated the paint as the Eagles interior trio of Lyonell Gaines, DeJuan Marrero and Anthony Elechi combined for 51 of the teams 86 points but this was helped along by the fact Nevada’s two big men both got themselves in early foul trouble and we see the Wolfpack playing with more discipline in this area on their home floor tonight.  If Nevada doesn’t take a beating on the boards early on the Wolfpack likely build themselves a lead that would have stood up in the end and we have to imagine rebounding will be a point of emphasis for Nevada tonight as this is essentially where they lost Game 1.  We see this as a total and complete aberration as Nevada rarely gets outrebounded by their opponents and ranks in the top 20 in the entire country in all relevant rebounding categories.  Morehead State does not shoot the ball well so this team has to score on the interior to succeed and with Nevada coming off an awful rebounding and interior defensive effort in Game 1 we expect vast improvements from the Wolfpack in two areas they have been pretty solid in all season.  Nevada lacked defensive intensity of any sort in Game 1 as they forced just one steal the entire game, a season low in this category and another aberration as the Wolfpack generally force more turnovers and points off turnovers than their opponents.  What is incredible and speaks to just how poor Morehead State is on defense is the fact Nevada didn’t score a single fast break bucket, only scored six points off turnovers all game, and still put up 83 points on the road.  What this really comes down to is Nevada simply played a bad game in many facets on the road and still nearly pulled out a win.  The Wolfpack are 14-3 at home this season and now that the realization their season is over if they lose Game 2, we expect a far greater sense of urgency and overall quality effort from Nevada in front of what always proves to be a fantastic crowd in Reno.  This is the ninth annual CBI tournament and of the previous eight, six of them went to a decisive third game.  The revenge factor is real in college basketball and this is arguably the most significant spot you will find all season with these two teams having just played on Monday and the visitor not only being forced to pack up quick and travel across country but they know they are set to be there until Friday should they lose as Game 3 would be held in Reno if necessary.  Nevada is the better team here and they get the extremely rare reprieve in the form of an opportunity to avenge a loss in a postseason tournament and keep the dream of winning this thing alive.  We are also getting tremendous line value here as Morehead State was a 5.5 point favorite on Monday night in Kentucky and we are convinced had these two teams not just played the Wolfpack would be in the range of a 6-7 point favorite as opposed to the very low 4 points they are laying in this game tonight.  While many of these angles pertain to Nevada winning the game, this number is low enough where they if they do win they will cover under most circumstances.  If Nevada plays like they are capable of playing this one won’t be close, and we expect a big effort from the Wolfpack and one that covers the number and forces a decisive Game 3 on Friday night.  

Good luck and lets get this $$$$ tonight!

2 Solid People on Nevada....so am I...For a couple other reasons than have already been said thus far:

$$$$ Golden State Warriors -1 1st Quarter $$$$

UTAH-G STATE Game:

Loved Grizzlies all season. Rode them last two nights. Going with Oakland again

Tailing Top Flight again with Nevada!  Very productive tail lately!!

Lets all make some of that congressional cabbage tonight!!

Pending $$$$s: 4

To the four of you--Cheers!  and, Thank you very much!  Your write-ups are great.  Some really amazing info and analysis.  Win or lose, you have clearly put us on the right side.
Almost by definition, a quarter play is riskier than a full game play, so I played them accordingly, but I did play both. 

Thanks for reality check, Pimp!  I went too far!!   Please accept my apology for letting the local's conspiracy theories air out in this very legit forum.  I will keep to the objective in the future, and let the subjective conjecture mire in the resident's urban-or in my case- rural mythology.  Been here since '90 so the Vegas/$$/TV legend has been part of local folklore.  Big OOOPS!  My really big BAD!!  A sincere apology to all readers!!! 

Good gentleman. I have my second money pick of the week. We're once again headed out to Vegas
ODU vs Oakland. The griz have been pushing the pace all year and continued to do so en route to gaining a spot in the Vegas 16 championship game. Felder is Felder, the kid is gonna get off no matter what, he's that good. Oakland also stretches the floor with Hopper, who is ready from beyond the arch. Oakland will shoot it over the Monarchs. However, the key to stopping, I should say slow down, oaklands high powered offense is keeping Felder out of the paint. When you do that, you limit what coach kampe wants to do offensively and throw the rhythm of the Oakland offense off: why am I staying not all this? Because that what ODU is capable of doing to this Oakland team. ODU has faced transition reliant offenses all year, see la tech UTEP UTSA and the fastest of them all Marshall. ODU will determine the pace of this game, they are just too experienced with the pace pushing not too. They did it in the Confernece USA all year. They were a buzzer beater away from playing in the ncaa tourney. I watched a lot of conference USA games this year, this happens when you have pneumonia from nov to feb and are on the couch, and ODU will run ball screen action for Bacote and Freeman and run 15-25 seconds off the shot clock. ODU is gonna force Oakland to beat them with jump shots, and Oakland def is capable of doing this, I just think that doesn't happen tonight. The legs of those Oakland players will ware down in the second half. ODU crashes the offensive glass very well as well, o just see Oakland being taken out of their rhythm/game tonight by ODU.

My book currently has it at +2. I'll take ODU for +2 as my money play please. $$$$ if 1.5 is what you guys have that is fine too, but I have ODU either way.

Sorry for the typos, stupid iPhone