As I expected, people appear to love the over, and it seems like a sucker bet to me. The line has moved from 152 to 153.5 as well. Obviously these are high scoring teams, especially Buffalo, but let’s break this situation down…
Combined, these teams average just under 150 a game. Last matchup they scored 166, but Buffalo had a whopping 102 on their own. In that matchup, Buffalo had 10 FGAs above their average and E Mich had 5 FGAs above their average. Buffalo also shot a fantastic 57.3% from the field on those 75 shots. E Mich had a below average night shooting 37.5%.
However, even with Buffalo scoring 102, they only beat the total by 14. Of course, that’s no small difference, but I think you can see what I’m saying. It’s highly unlikely Buffalo can put up those numbers again especially on the road. EMU should also make adjustments.
Additionally, this game is an early one unlike last matchup. Buffalo has only scored above 80 once in a matchup before 5pm EST in which they had 81. It was a later afternoon matchup too playing at 4pm EST.
I expect E Mich to shoot better and Buffalo to regress… maybe a 79 - 70 type of game. I lean UNDER 153.5 and will likely play it closer to tip 
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