Can someone talk futures with me to win it all

Auburn solid team great coach and nice price.

I was listening to VSIN yesterday while working out. The guy mentioned BYU at 80 to 1 as a solid long shot. I don't know anything about BYU except that the team probably averages 26 years old!

Kentucky Kentucky Kentucky!!

My book has oregon +2800

Penn state +2000

Kansas +600

Penn state has great value, teams that win on the road can win championships

Good thread.  I, too, am interested to hear what people think on this. 

I've got some Dayton, Oregon, and Seton Hall all at +3300.  I have been thinking of adding some stock in Maryland and/or SDSU + one "favorite," either Kansas or Gonzaga. 

Kansas is playing some great ball right now, and their AdjD is the best we've seen since the 2015 Kentucky team that lost in the Final Four to Wisconsin.  This Gonzaga team's efficiency numbers are almost an exact match of the 2017 UNC team that won it all.

I haven't been a big future better in the past.  My first ever was UVA +1000 last year, and I'll admit a personal bias in that decision as a lifelong Virginia fan.  I logged in and bought it last year the moment Zion went down with his injury (I thought Duke was the only team that had our number last year).

That one obviously worked out... and gave me a taste for the futures market.  I don't want to over-extend myself with too many picks this year--such that, if one hits, it would only be net-neutral--but I would like to go into the tournament with a nice portfolio of teams I can ride through the Big Dance and/or bet against as opportunities present themselves.

Out of all the Big Ten teams and being a Michigan fan I think either Michigan (obvious bias lol) or Penn State (being objective) makes  the deepest runs in the tournament.

when Livers is healthy we’re a top 15-20 team.  
If he’s hurt we’re rather pedestrian of a team 

I think the field is too wide open to get proper value out of most teams, since most futures wagers are devoid of value to being with.  

Procrastinating at work... here's the data  

Darnit, didn't copy over... let's try again (spacing will be a little off pasting as text instead of a table).  Part 1:

Year        Team        AdjOE        AdjOE Rank        AdjDE        AdjDE Rank        AdjEM        AdjEM Rank

2019        Virginia        123.69        2        88.04        5        35.65        1

2018        Villanova        127.38        1        95.97        22        31.41        2

2017        UNC        122.08        4        94.07        25        28.01        3

2016        Villanova        118.30        15        91.55        7        26.75        5

2015        Duke        124.25        3        94.95        37        29.31        6

Part 2:

Year        Team        AdjOE        AdjOE Rank        AdjDE        AdjDE Rank        AdjEM        AdjEM Rank

2014        UConn        111.36        57        92.24        12        19.12        25

2013        Louisville        114.31        17        83.17        1        31.14        2

2012        Kentucky        120.57        2        88.84        6        31.73        1

2011        UConn        114.80        21        93.10        27        21.70        15

2010        Duke        119.30        4        87.75        5        31.55        2

2009        UNC        122.65        1        94.09        37        28.56        3

2008        Kansas        121.43        1        87.47        3        33.96        1

Part 3 (of 3):

Year        Team        AdjOE        AdjOE Rank        AdjDE        AdjDE Rank        AdjEM        AdjEM Rank

2007        Florida        120.93        2        92.07        14        28.86        3

2006        Florida        116.02        13        92.11        18        23.92        6

2005        UNC        121.06        3        89.05        6        32.00        2

2004        UConn        116.18        11        90.33        10        25.85        5

2003        Syracuse        113.95        18        93.99        31        19.96        20

2002        Maryland        118.15        4        91.30        12        26.85        4

I forget who it was but they said that they knew an "inside" source (therefore rigged) saying that Louisville will win it all. The forum member made a thread about it a month before college basketball season started, told his story and he was tellin us to bet Louisville to win it all. Problem is, this thread is wayyy back after these thousands of threads have been created. SO going back 30+ pages to dig it out would be a truly monumental task to find it and bump it up.. 

Note that those are pre-tournament efficiency numbers for each champion by year from KenPom.  Hopefully it's helpful data for folks to draw their own insights. 

My initial, surface-level reactions...

- 15 of the last 18 years a team ranked inside the top 6 in AdjEM cut down the nets.  I think the odds largely reflect that as they sit right now.  Kansas, Duke, Gonzaga, SDSU, Baylor, and Dayton rank as the current top 6 in KenPom.

- I've heard Dayton's defense raised as a concern, but 5 previous teams have won with equal or worse AdjDE: 2018 Villanova, 2017 UNC, 2015 Duke, 2009 UNC, 2003 Syracuse (93.99).

- Only one team with a pre-tournament AdjOE below 113 has gone on to cut down the nets in April: 2014 UConn, who came into the tournament at 111.36 (and finished after the tournament at 113.59).  Baylor currently sits at 112.19.

I tried finding that Louisville to win it all thread but the server only lets me go back to 100 pages. At the 100 page mark, you have threads from January 2020! That Louisville to win it all thread would have been in July/August'ish 2019 and the search feature won't let me go back that far.. Unless somebody knew that they commented on it.. they could re-bump it up..  I'll check my past responses for the college basketball forum, I may have commented on it..

Square, if there's one thing I'm good at, it's finding things online... combined with my procrastination at work, it's a potent combination.

https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/103388174/inside-information-lock

I, too, recalled this thread after you mentioning it.  Highly entertaining web of information this fella strung together... and our mysterious "John Nash" has not posted since.

Yep.. That's it.. I'm going to comment on it to bump it up and for the server/system to "re-save" it.. Thanks man.. 

In another, less conspiracy-laden thread, my man ODB and others liked the Cards, as well...

https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/103387840/whos-ready-2020-futures/1

Cappital,

Don't know if you've ever heard of the person/story of "John Titor" (internet search it and put your tinfoil hat on) but cxxx27 reminds me of him with you referring to him has renowned mathematician "John Nash.."

Anytime, buddy.

FWIW--next time you need to go back further, try manually entering a number into the box (Page _ of 100).  That let me go back further than 100, and from there I was able to use the arrows to navigate between pages.  With a bit of trial and error, I found the break point between seasons (current page 310).

I had not haha.  After googling the name and seeing "military time traveler" in the Wikipedia page preview, I am strapping in for an educational exploration of the weird depths of the internet.

When I read cxxx27's post, I picture the scene in A Beautiful Mind when John Nash's wife looks in the garage to find thousands of news paper clippings and pictures coating the walls, connected by strings, and covered in writing... excellently parodied by Always Sunny in the "Pepe Silvia" storyline.