The perfect 4 day run of 11-0 finally come's to an end. I knew it was coming and didn't expect to go undefeated a 5th day in a row to be honest but I would take a 6-3-1 day netting +54 units every day if I could. After Saturday i'm currently on a 17-3-1 run in the past 5 days on straight bet's netting +255 units & 32-13-1 since last Saturday on straight bets now netting a total of +274 units in 6 days work. As always here's yesterdays thread below...
Getting ready to dive into Sunday's card here shortly...
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
90-66-2 ytd netting +220.8 units...
9-12 (POD's) -56 units...
The perfect 4 day run of 11-0 finally come's to an end. I knew it was coming and didn't expect to go undefeated a 5th day in a row to be honest but I would take a 6-3-1 day netting +54 units every day if I could. After Saturday i'm currently on a 17-3-1 run in the past 5 days on straight bet's netting +255 units & 32-13-1 since last Saturday on straight bets now netting a total of +274 units in 6 days work. As always here's yesterdays thread below...
NC-Greensboro +26 (Initial thoughts of this being a lot for a defensive minded team to cover that struggles on offense)
Western Michigan -8.5 (Not sure SIU can keep this game within single digits after the 1st 10 minute's into the game)
Marshall -2 (Marshall has talent while Iona rely's on transition)
Santa Clara +6.5 (The books may be underestimating Santa Clara here)
UC_Riverside +5.5 (Classic buy low sell high in this one. Montana St's 3 cover's have come as dogs and now they are favored by nearly 3 possessions against a team that plays solid defense)
New Mexico st -4.5 (UTEP is struggling much so on offense at just 56.6ppg while New Mexico St has already beat them by a score of 89-73....)
Murray st +11 (Memphis will be good for covers against the patsy's of the NCAA but against fair weather competition they are struggling (See G-Town, Tenn & Michigan). Murray st plays solid defense and is deadly from beyond the arc)
Detroit +13.5 (Eli Holman has returned and against Western Michigan he was 10 for 14 with 7 rebounds (3 off), 4 blocks, 1 assist and 1 steal. He is a huge piece to the success of Detroit and with him they can hang with many of the elite teams.)
Cal st-Fullerton -3 (Fullerton is rock solid on offense)
These are the leans. Time to dig deeper...
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Here's a quick at glance lean list:
NC-Greensboro +26 (Initial thoughts of this being a lot for a defensive minded team to cover that struggles on offense)
Western Michigan -8.5 (Not sure SIU can keep this game within single digits after the 1st 10 minute's into the game)
Marshall -2 (Marshall has talent while Iona rely's on transition)
Santa Clara +6.5 (The books may be underestimating Santa Clara here)
UC_Riverside +5.5 (Classic buy low sell high in this one. Montana St's 3 cover's have come as dogs and now they are favored by nearly 3 possessions against a team that plays solid defense)
New Mexico st -4.5 (UTEP is struggling much so on offense at just 56.6ppg while New Mexico St has already beat them by a score of 89-73....)
Murray st +11 (Memphis will be good for covers against the patsy's of the NCAA but against fair weather competition they are struggling (See G-Town, Tenn & Michigan). Murray st plays solid defense and is deadly from beyond the arc)
Detroit +13.5 (Eli Holman has returned and against Western Michigan he was 10 for 14 with 7 rebounds (3 off), 4 blocks, 1 assist and 1 steal. He is a huge piece to the success of Detroit and with him they can hang with many of the elite teams.)
Cal st-Fullerton -3 (Fullerton is rock solid on offense)
Detroit definitely peaked my interest, surprised that line is so high. Only thing that bothers me is that Alabama has lost two straight so I think they may be looking to pound on someone. Detroit has also not been a stellar road team.
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Detroit definitely peaked my interest, surprised that line is so high. Only thing that bothers me is that Alabama has lost two straight so I think they may be looking to pound on someone. Detroit has also not been a stellar road team.
Bama is struggling on offense to say the least. I think they will be looking to get back in the win column after two tough losses but there is no way this team should be favored by 13.5. If they cover the 13.5 then the score has to be 65-51 type game. Green and Releford are really struggling right now for Bama and the freshman are a little timid on the offensive end. I will probably have a play on Detroit tomorrow.
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Bama is struggling on offense to say the least. I think they will be looking to get back in the win column after two tough losses but there is no way this team should be favored by 13.5. If they cover the 13.5 then the score has to be 65-51 type game. Green and Releford are really struggling right now for Bama and the freshman are a little timid on the offensive end. I will probably have a play on Detroit tomorrow.
Murray St. +11 for 20 units... Murray st is 9-0 so far with 4 road wins already and with wins over Dayton(6-3su), Southern Miss(7-2su) & SanFran(7-3su). I also expect their win over UAB to look much better than later on in the season than it currently does now. Memphis has proven much inconsistency yet along with lack of discipline. If you take the 2 meaningless opponents out of Memphis's schedule thus far ( 1-7su Jackson st & 2-9su Austin Peay) the Tigers have committed 21 fouls per game while their opponents have averaged 25 free throw's per game. This undisciplined style of play which is mostly a direct result of a team full of sophomores and freshman getting lot's of playing time should play right into Murray State's strong point's as they are averaging 80% from the free throw line while getting to the stripe an average of 22 times per game while the one game this season they were not favored in they got to the line 27 times (Southern Miss) making 24 of them. The Murray State squad currently is shooting lights out from behind the arc as well @ 44.8% which is 6th best in the Nation. Memphis is currently allowing teams to shot 30.2% from behind the arc which is 76th in the Nation. I am a believer that Murray State in this spot as they sport 6 upperclassmen that are getting heavy minute's in relation to their excellent offensive number's (4 seniors and 2 juniors). That experience should be something to be much favored in this game and frankly Murray State will have a decent shot at winning this game...POD
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1st play is:
Murray St. +11 for 20 units... Murray st is 9-0 so far with 4 road wins already and with wins over Dayton(6-3su), Southern Miss(7-2su) & SanFran(7-3su). I also expect their win over UAB to look much better than later on in the season than it currently does now. Memphis has proven much inconsistency yet along with lack of discipline. If you take the 2 meaningless opponents out of Memphis's schedule thus far ( 1-7su Jackson st & 2-9su Austin Peay) the Tigers have committed 21 fouls per game while their opponents have averaged 25 free throw's per game. This undisciplined style of play which is mostly a direct result of a team full of sophomores and freshman getting lot's of playing time should play right into Murray State's strong point's as they are averaging 80% from the free throw line while getting to the stripe an average of 22 times per game while the one game this season they were not favored in they got to the line 27 times (Southern Miss) making 24 of them. The Murray State squad currently is shooting lights out from behind the arc as well @ 44.8% which is 6th best in the Nation. Memphis is currently allowing teams to shot 30.2% from behind the arc which is 76th in the Nation. I am a believer that Murray State in this spot as they sport 6 upperclassmen that are getting heavy minute's in relation to their excellent offensive number's (4 seniors and 2 juniors). That experience should be something to be much favored in this game and frankly Murray State will have a decent shot at winning this game...POD
dude what happen to Toledo? Why did they fold like that?
Loyola was able to get the ball in the lanes with the Slashing of a one Mr Ben (I did everything today) Averkamp as he dropped 31 points on 13 for 26 shooting while Loyola out rebounded Toledo 33 to 25 and also had 22 free throw attempts to Toledo's 11. Loyola had an answer on Saturday for the 3 headed guard monster of Pearson, Buckley & Brown ( 109 minutes, 41 pts) and that answer was Ben Averkamp...
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Quote Originally Posted by tecradude92:
dude what happen to Toledo? Why did they fold like that?
Loyola was able to get the ball in the lanes with the Slashing of a one Mr Ben (I did everything today) Averkamp as he dropped 31 points on 13 for 26 shooting while Loyola out rebounded Toledo 33 to 25 and also had 22 free throw attempts to Toledo's 11. Loyola had an answer on Saturday for the 3 headed guard monster of Pearson, Buckley & Brown ( 109 minutes, 41 pts) and that answer was Ben Averkamp...
Lol, stupid Toledo... Your PODs havent been doing so well but Im still with you on Murray State my book already has them at +10.5. Nice job today btw.
Saturday marked the 1st loss on POD picks in 6 attempts as i'm 5-1 in the last 6. Before that I was on a 0-9 slide and before that I was on a 4-0 run that followed an 0-2 start. So it's been streaky to say the least....
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Quote Originally Posted by holtzy83:
Lol, stupid Toledo... Your PODs havent been doing so well but Im still with you on Murray State my book already has them at +10.5. Nice job today btw.
Saturday marked the 1st loss on POD picks in 6 attempts as i'm 5-1 in the last 6. Before that I was on a 0-9 slide and before that I was on a 4-0 run that followed an 0-2 start. So it's been streaky to say the least....
Murray St. +11 for 20 units... Murray st is 9-0 so far with 4 road wins already and with wins over Dayton(6-3su), Southern Miss(7-2su) & SanFran(7-3su). I also expect their win over UAB to look much better than later on in the season than it currently does now. Memphis has proven much inconsistency yet along with lack of discipline. If you take the 2 meaningless opponents out of Memphis's schedule thus far ( 1-7su Jackson st & 2-9su Austin Peay) the Tigers have committed 21 fouls per game while their opponents have averaged 25 free throw's per game. This undisciplined style of play which is mostly a direct result of a team full of sophomores and freshman getting lot's of playing time should play right into Murray State's strong point's as they are averaging 80% from the free throw line while getting to the stripe an average of 22 times per game while the one game this season they were not favored in they got to the line 27 times (Southern Miss) making 24 of them. The Murray State squad currently is shooting lights out from behind the arc as well @ 44.8% which is 6th best in the Nation. Memphis is currently allowing teams to shot 30.2% from behind the arc which is 76th in the Nation. I am a believer that Murray State in this spot as they sport 6 upperclassmen that are getting heavy minute's in relation to their excellent offensive number's (4 seniors and 2 juniors). That experience should be something to be much favored in this game and frankly Murray State will have a decent shot at winning this game...POD
Upperclassmen w/ FT and 3pt advantage is tough to beat. If Murray makes Memphis earn baskets by playing tight D and cleaning up the boards they have a good chance to win outright.
GL and thanks for the write ups/picks.
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Quote Originally Posted by oddsbuster:
1st play is:
Murray St. +11 for 20 units... Murray st is 9-0 so far with 4 road wins already and with wins over Dayton(6-3su), Southern Miss(7-2su) & SanFran(7-3su). I also expect their win over UAB to look much better than later on in the season than it currently does now. Memphis has proven much inconsistency yet along with lack of discipline. If you take the 2 meaningless opponents out of Memphis's schedule thus far ( 1-7su Jackson st & 2-9su Austin Peay) the Tigers have committed 21 fouls per game while their opponents have averaged 25 free throw's per game. This undisciplined style of play which is mostly a direct result of a team full of sophomores and freshman getting lot's of playing time should play right into Murray State's strong point's as they are averaging 80% from the free throw line while getting to the stripe an average of 22 times per game while the one game this season they were not favored in they got to the line 27 times (Southern Miss) making 24 of them. The Murray State squad currently is shooting lights out from behind the arc as well @ 44.8% which is 6th best in the Nation. Memphis is currently allowing teams to shot 30.2% from behind the arc which is 76th in the Nation. I am a believer that Murray State in this spot as they sport 6 upperclassmen that are getting heavy minute's in relation to their excellent offensive number's (4 seniors and 2 juniors). That experience should be something to be much favored in this game and frankly Murray State will have a decent shot at winning this game...POD
Upperclassmen w/ FT and 3pt advantage is tough to beat. If Murray makes Memphis earn baskets by playing tight D and cleaning up the boards they have a good chance to win outright.
Sorry for clogging your thread Odds, I should have put this in the last post. Total is 139, suggesting 75-64. I'm expecting to see something around 74-70. Do have an opinion on the total?
Thanks
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Sorry for clogging your thread Odds, I should have put this in the last post. Total is 139, suggesting 75-64. I'm expecting to see something around 74-70. Do have an opinion on the total?
UC Riverside@Montana St. under 128.5 for 20 units... The UC-Riverside/Montana st game is a game where slow (Riverside 53spg) meets fast (Montana st 61spg). Montana st has hoovered right around their D-1 opponents defensive averages as here below is what their opponents allow per game followed by what Montana St scored...
(Cal State-Baker) Allows 70ppg Montana st scored 71
(San Jose St) Allows 73ppg Montana st scored 77
(Idaho) Allows 67ppg Montana st scored 67
(Seattle) Allows 69ppg Montana st scored 73
(Utah) Allows 75ppg Montana st scored 70
(Arizona st) Allows 65ppg Montana st scored 72
So as we can see above that Montana st has played close to the line set forth by it's opponent's. Now most will see that Montana st is averaging 81ppg on 61 shot attempts but those number's are boosted by 2 non D-1 opponent games as they scored 220pts on 143 shots vs Willamette, a D-3 team who is in last place of the Northwest conference with a 2-7 record & Northern New Mexico, an NAIA D-2 independent team that currently has a record of just 1-14 while losing those 14 games by an average margin of defeat by 29ppg. So it's no wonder why when you click on Montana state basketball you see an 81pp average followed by 61 shot attempts per game when we really should be looking at their D-1 adjusted stats (computed manually) of 71ppg & 57 shots per game. That's quite the difference in relation to their Sunday opponent when involving the number's the books are giving us. As stated above if Montana st carries on their consistent results of staying close to their opponents defensive averages then we should have a great shot at cashing the under in this game because UC-Riverside is allowing only 58ppg and 2 of their games went to OT so if we took the OT's out of they are actually holding opponents to just 55ppg and just 39% shooting. That 39% vows to be very important because with Riverside averaging just 52ppg on 37% shooting combined with the fact they average just 53 shots per game we should have are selves quite the little struggle on offense in this game as even Montana st with those 2 patsy games throw in the mix are still shooting just 41% from the field...
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UC Riverside@Montana St. under 128.5 for 20 units... The UC-Riverside/Montana st game is a game where slow (Riverside 53spg) meets fast (Montana st 61spg). Montana st has hoovered right around their D-1 opponents defensive averages as here below is what their opponents allow per game followed by what Montana St scored...
(Cal State-Baker) Allows 70ppg Montana st scored 71
(San Jose St) Allows 73ppg Montana st scored 77
(Idaho) Allows 67ppg Montana st scored 67
(Seattle) Allows 69ppg Montana st scored 73
(Utah) Allows 75ppg Montana st scored 70
(Arizona st) Allows 65ppg Montana st scored 72
So as we can see above that Montana st has played close to the line set forth by it's opponent's. Now most will see that Montana st is averaging 81ppg on 61 shot attempts but those number's are boosted by 2 non D-1 opponent games as they scored 220pts on 143 shots vs Willamette, a D-3 team who is in last place of the Northwest conference with a 2-7 record & Northern New Mexico, an NAIA D-2 independent team that currently has a record of just 1-14 while losing those 14 games by an average margin of defeat by 29ppg. So it's no wonder why when you click on Montana state basketball you see an 81pp average followed by 61 shot attempts per game when we really should be looking at their D-1 adjusted stats (computed manually) of 71ppg & 57 shots per game. That's quite the difference in relation to their Sunday opponent when involving the number's the books are giving us. As stated above if Montana st carries on their consistent results of staying close to their opponents defensive averages then we should have a great shot at cashing the under in this game because UC-Riverside is allowing only 58ppg and 2 of their games went to OT so if we took the OT's out of they are actually holding opponents to just 55ppg and just 39% shooting. That 39% vows to be very important because with Riverside averaging just 52ppg on 37% shooting combined with the fact they average just 53 shots per game we should have are selves quite the little struggle on offense in this game as even Montana st with those 2 patsy games throw in the mix are still shooting just 41% from the field...
Sorry for clogging your thread Odds, I should have put this in the last post. Total is 139, suggesting 75-64. I'm expecting to see something around 74-70. Do have an opinion on the total?
Thanks
I like both offense's. Strong lean to the over but i'm not sure I will play it....
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Quote Originally Posted by bhoward13:
Sorry for clogging your thread Odds, I should have put this in the last post. Total is 139, suggesting 75-64. I'm expecting to see something around 74-70. Do have an opinion on the total?
Thanks
I like both offense's. Strong lean to the over but i'm not sure I will play it....
UC Riverside@Montana St. under 128.5 for 20 units... The UC-Riverside/Montana st game is a game where slow (Riverside 53spg) meets fast (Montana st 61spg). Montana st has hoovered right around their D-1 opponents defensive averages as here below is what their opponents allow per game followed by what Montana St scored...
(Cal State-Baker) Allows 70ppg Montana st scored 71
(San Jose St) Allows 73ppg Montana st scored 77
(Idaho) Allows 67ppg Montana st scored 67
(Seattle) Allows 69ppg Montana st scored 73
(Utah) Allows 75ppg Montana st scored 70
(Arizona st) Allows 65ppg Montana st scored 72
So as we can see above that Montana st has played close to the line set forth by it's opponent's. Now most will see that Montana st is averaging 81ppg on 61 shot attempts but those number's are boosted by 2 non D-1 opponent games as they scored 220pts on 143 shots vs Willamette, a D-3 team who is in last place of the Northwest conference with a 2-7 record & Northern New Mexico, an NAIA D-2 independent team that currently has a record of just 1-14 while losing those 14 games by an average margin of defeat by 29ppg. So it's no wonder why when you click on Montana state basketball you see an 81pp average followed by 61 shot attempts per game when we really should be looking at their D-1 adjusted stats (computed manually) of 71ppg & 57 shots per game. That's quite the difference in relation to their Sunday opponent when involving the number's the books are giving us. As stated above if Montana st carries on their consistent results of staying close to their opponents defensive averages then we should have a great shot at cashing the under in this game because UC-Riverside is allowing only 58ppg and 2 of their games went to OT so if we took the OT's out of they are actually holding opponents to just 55ppg and just 39% shooting. That 39% vows to be very important because with Riverside averaging just 52ppg on 37% shooting combined with the fact they average just 53 shots per game we should have are selves quite the little struggle on offense in this game as even Montana st with those 2 patsy games throw in the mix are still shooting just 41% from the field...
Or is it? It seems that Montana st may not be as willing to push the tempo as much as the numbers show us before understanding how much those 2 games boosted their averages...
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Quote Originally Posted by oddsbuster:
UC Riverside@Montana St. under 128.5 for 20 units... The UC-Riverside/Montana st game is a game where slow (Riverside 53spg) meets fast (Montana st 61spg). Montana st has hoovered right around their D-1 opponents defensive averages as here below is what their opponents allow per game followed by what Montana St scored...
(Cal State-Baker) Allows 70ppg Montana st scored 71
(San Jose St) Allows 73ppg Montana st scored 77
(Idaho) Allows 67ppg Montana st scored 67
(Seattle) Allows 69ppg Montana st scored 73
(Utah) Allows 75ppg Montana st scored 70
(Arizona st) Allows 65ppg Montana st scored 72
So as we can see above that Montana st has played close to the line set forth by it's opponent's. Now most will see that Montana st is averaging 81ppg on 61 shot attempts but those number's are boosted by 2 non D-1 opponent games as they scored 220pts on 143 shots vs Willamette, a D-3 team who is in last place of the Northwest conference with a 2-7 record & Northern New Mexico, an NAIA D-2 independent team that currently has a record of just 1-14 while losing those 14 games by an average margin of defeat by 29ppg. So it's no wonder why when you click on Montana state basketball you see an 81pp average followed by 61 shot attempts per game when we really should be looking at their D-1 adjusted stats (computed manually) of 71ppg & 57 shots per game. That's quite the difference in relation to their Sunday opponent when involving the number's the books are giving us. As stated above if Montana st carries on their consistent results of staying close to their opponents defensive averages then we should have a great shot at cashing the under in this game because UC-Riverside is allowing only 58ppg and 2 of their games went to OT so if we took the OT's out of they are actually holding opponents to just 55ppg and just 39% shooting. That 39% vows to be very important because with Riverside averaging just 52ppg on 37% shooting combined with the fact they average just 53 shots per game we should have are selves quite the little struggle on offense in this game as even Montana st with those 2 patsy games throw in the mix are still shooting just 41% from the field...
Or is it? It seems that Montana st may not be as willing to push the tempo as much as the numbers show us before understanding how much those 2 games boosted their averages...
kdawgy & YACKER... In relation to the Detroit/Bama game as I continue top read many things on many of these teams for Sundays card the back of my mind keeps thinking about how easy it looks for anyone who understands basketball to take the pt's with Detroit. It also seemed that way with Bonnies laying a big number vs Canisius yesterday along & Syracuse laying a big number to GW as both favs covered the big number. Now you guys now as much as i know that it's not really practical to necessarily relate this Detroit/Bama situation and number to those 2 games. But I ask myself this. Do I really feel that the smart money should be on Detroit here? Was it on Canisius or GW? Those are huge debates but the bottom line is (at least in my head) Detroit has hit cold streaks and their 3 point shooting is terrible. You need a decent shooting team to hang with defense's such as Alabama so in final I would think the Detroit +13.5 on the road in a hostile environment is actually one hell of a scary bet. I think our advantages will be exploited with Eli Holman within the Horizon conference instead of just taking a bunch of points because it looks tasty. Hell the books have even set the trap with great pleasure on that game as they have already moved it from +15.5 to +13.5. Recreational bettors go crazy over seeing that type of stuff and we all know in the long run the books profit from this move over and over and over again each day. Think about it what is really the difference between +13.5 and +15.5 in this game. I'n my eyes not too much, but that 2 point movement the who world just witnessed probably attracted extra cash flow on Detroit. Hell I even leaned them at first glance. I'm not saying this thought process is right on this game. But over the long run we can all save our selves LOTS of money from staying away from games like this. I would be very scared if I had my hands on a Detroit ticket right now. Detroit's defense is mediocre at best and frankly om the road this could easily turn into a 20 pt shalackin...
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kdawgy & YACKER... In relation to the Detroit/Bama game as I continue top read many things on many of these teams for Sundays card the back of my mind keeps thinking about how easy it looks for anyone who understands basketball to take the pt's with Detroit. It also seemed that way with Bonnies laying a big number vs Canisius yesterday along & Syracuse laying a big number to GW as both favs covered the big number. Now you guys now as much as i know that it's not really practical to necessarily relate this Detroit/Bama situation and number to those 2 games. But I ask myself this. Do I really feel that the smart money should be on Detroit here? Was it on Canisius or GW? Those are huge debates but the bottom line is (at least in my head) Detroit has hit cold streaks and their 3 point shooting is terrible. You need a decent shooting team to hang with defense's such as Alabama so in final I would think the Detroit +13.5 on the road in a hostile environment is actually one hell of a scary bet. I think our advantages will be exploited with Eli Holman within the Horizon conference instead of just taking a bunch of points because it looks tasty. Hell the books have even set the trap with great pleasure on that game as they have already moved it from +15.5 to +13.5. Recreational bettors go crazy over seeing that type of stuff and we all know in the long run the books profit from this move over and over and over again each day. Think about it what is really the difference between +13.5 and +15.5 in this game. I'n my eyes not too much, but that 2 point movement the who world just witnessed probably attracted extra cash flow on Detroit. Hell I even leaned them at first glance. I'm not saying this thought process is right on this game. But over the long run we can all save our selves LOTS of money from staying away from games like this. I would be very scared if I had my hands on a Detroit ticket right now. Detroit's defense is mediocre at best and frankly om the road this could easily turn into a 20 pt shalackin...
kdawgy & YACKER... In relation to the Detroit/Bama game as I continue top read many things on many of these teams for Sundays card the back of my mind keeps thinking about how easy it looks for anyone who understands basketball to take the pt's with Detroit. It also seemed that way with Bonnies laying a big number vs Canisius yesterday along & Syracuse laying a big number to GW as both favs covered the big number. Now you guys now as much as i know that it's not really practical to necessarily relate this Detroit/Bama situation and number to those 2 games. But I ask myself this. Do I really feel that the smart money should be on Detroit here? Was it on Canisius or GW? Those are huge debates but the bottom line is (at least in my head) Detroit has hit cold streaks and their 3 point shooting is terrible. You need a decent shooting team to hang with defense's such as Alabama so in final I would think the Detroit +13.5 on the road in a hostile environment is actually one hell of a scary bet. I think our advantages will be exploited with Eli Holman within the Horizon conference instead of just taking a bunch of points because it looks tasty. Hell the books have even set the trap with great pleasure on that game as they have already moved it from +15.5 to +13.5. Recreational bettors go crazy over seeing that type of stuff and we all know in the long run the books profit from this move over and over and over again each day. Think about it what is really the difference between +13.5 and +15.5 in this game. I'n my eyes not too much, but that 2 point movement the who world just witnessed probably attracted extra cash flow on Detroit. Hell I even leaned them at first glance. I'm not saying this thought process is right on this game. But over the long run we can all save our selves LOTS of money from staying away from games like this. I would be very scared if I had my hands on a Detroit ticket right now. Detroit's defense is mediocre at best and frankly om the road this could easily turn into a 20 pt shalackin...
I don't disagree, it will be interesting to see which detroit team shows up. I'm probably going to parlay detroit +14 with the over and a tiny bet on detroit ml with the over. I know parlays are the equivalent to making a deal with the devil in most cases, but in situations like this I think you have to look at the correlation between detroit's success and high scoring games and see some value there. I don't see them winning SU or even covering in a low scoring game, so I do feel there is some real value in parlaying them with the over. Just my .02 cents.
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Quote Originally Posted by oddsbuster:
kdawgy & YACKER... In relation to the Detroit/Bama game as I continue top read many things on many of these teams for Sundays card the back of my mind keeps thinking about how easy it looks for anyone who understands basketball to take the pt's with Detroit. It also seemed that way with Bonnies laying a big number vs Canisius yesterday along & Syracuse laying a big number to GW as both favs covered the big number. Now you guys now as much as i know that it's not really practical to necessarily relate this Detroit/Bama situation and number to those 2 games. But I ask myself this. Do I really feel that the smart money should be on Detroit here? Was it on Canisius or GW? Those are huge debates but the bottom line is (at least in my head) Detroit has hit cold streaks and their 3 point shooting is terrible. You need a decent shooting team to hang with defense's such as Alabama so in final I would think the Detroit +13.5 on the road in a hostile environment is actually one hell of a scary bet. I think our advantages will be exploited with Eli Holman within the Horizon conference instead of just taking a bunch of points because it looks tasty. Hell the books have even set the trap with great pleasure on that game as they have already moved it from +15.5 to +13.5. Recreational bettors go crazy over seeing that type of stuff and we all know in the long run the books profit from this move over and over and over again each day. Think about it what is really the difference between +13.5 and +15.5 in this game. I'n my eyes not too much, but that 2 point movement the who world just witnessed probably attracted extra cash flow on Detroit. Hell I even leaned them at first glance. I'm not saying this thought process is right on this game. But over the long run we can all save our selves LOTS of money from staying away from games like this. I would be very scared if I had my hands on a Detroit ticket right now. Detroit's defense is mediocre at best and frankly om the road this could easily turn into a 20 pt shalackin...
I don't disagree, it will be interesting to see which detroit team shows up. I'm probably going to parlay detroit +14 with the over and a tiny bet on detroit ml with the over. I know parlays are the equivalent to making a deal with the devil in most cases, but in situations like this I think you have to look at the correlation between detroit's success and high scoring games and see some value there. I don't see them winning SU or even covering in a low scoring game, so I do feel there is some real value in parlaying them with the over. Just my .02 cents.
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